{"id":1273,"date":"2014-01-08T11:12:41","date_gmt":"2014-01-08T10:12:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=1273"},"modified":"2018-09-13T09:55:55","modified_gmt":"2018-09-13T08:55:55","slug":"our-temperature-indicator-for-china-rises-slightly-to-6-2-but-the-growth-outlook-remains-moderate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=1273","title":{"rendered":"Our \u201dtemperature indicator\u201d for China rises slightly to 6.2 &#8211; but the growth outlook remains moderate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\n\u00a4 Our so-called \u201c<strong>temperature indicator<\/strong>\u201d for the Chinese economy improved somewhat to 6.2 in\u00a0December 2013 compared to 5.4 in June 2013 (10=extremely overheated). This is number that\u00a0indicates quite modest growth by Chinese standards. Around 20 China experts from Asia, North\u00a0America and Europe participated in this survey.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 The panel\u2019s <strong>GDP projections<\/strong> (average, in brackets the forecasts from June 2013):<br \/>\n2013: 7.6 (7.6); 2013q4 7.8 (7.8); 2014: 7.6 (7.5); 2014 q4: 7.2 (7.3).<br \/>\nChina has obviously landed on more dampened growth path.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 78% of the panelists think that the currency renminbi will appreciate slightly during 2014 (1-5%).<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 75% of the panelists still see a kind of bubble on the real estate market.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 The panel\u2019s confidence in the economic future of China is quite neutral (around 3 in a five year\u2019s\u00a0perspective on a scale from 1-5; 5=very strong) &#8211; but surprisingly somewhat above 3 (i.e. 3.5) in a ten\u00a0years\u2019 view. The latter result shows implicitly that there is some confidence that China\u2019s reform policy\u00a0during the current leadership will at least be partly successful.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 The three most strongly preferred reform areas seem to be &#8211; according to the panel (ranked):<br \/>\nfinancial markets, the hokou system (for registration), and, side by side: corruption and the\u00a0environment.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/files\/2014\/01\/China_Survey_Panel_December_2013.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-1277\" src=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/files\/2014\/01\/China_Survey_Panel_December_2013.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"470\" height=\"141\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/ekonomihogskolan.lnu.se\/chinaresearch\/China_Survey_Panel_December_2013.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Read the full article<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.lnu.se\/image.ashx?id=117818&amp;w=110\" alt=\"\" width=\"110\" height=\"136\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong><em><br \/>\n<\/em>Visiting Professor of International Economics, Linnaeus University<br \/>\n<a href=\"..\/editorial-board\/\">Editorial board<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\">Back to Start Page<\/a><em><br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary \u00a4 Our so-called \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for the Chinese economy improved somewhat to 6.2 in\u00a0December 2013 compared to 5.4 in June 2013 (10=extremely overheated). This is number that\u00a0indicates quite modest growth by Chinese standards. Around 20 China experts from Asia, North\u00a0America and Europe participated in this survey. \u00a4 The panel\u2019s GDP projections (average, in brackets [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13398,18949],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1273","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-2","category-china-panel-survey"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Our \u201dtemperature indicator\u201d for China rises slightly to 6.2 - but the growth outlook remains moderate - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=1273\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Our \u201dtemperature indicator\u201d for China rises slightly to 6.2 - but the growth outlook remains moderate - China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary \u00a4 Our so-called \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for the Chinese economy improved somewhat to 6.2 in\u00a0December 2013 compared to 5.4 in June 2013 (10=extremely overheated). This is number that\u00a0indicates quite modest growth by Chinese standards. Around 20 China experts from Asia, North\u00a0America and Europe participated in this survey. \u00a4 The panel\u2019s GDP projections (average, in brackets [&hellip;]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=1273\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-01-08T10:12:41+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-09-13T08:55:55+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/files\/2014\/01\/China_Survey_Panel_December_2013.jpg\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=1273\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=1273\",\"name\":\"Our \u201dtemperature indicator\u201d for China rises slightly to 6.2 - but the growth outlook remains moderate - China Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2014-01-08T10:12:41+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-09-13T08:55:55+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=1273\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/\",\"name\":\"China Research\",\"description\":\"A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China  \u2013                                          from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5\",\"name\":\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?author=174\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Our \u201dtemperature indicator\u201d for China rises slightly to 6.2 - but the growth outlook remains moderate - China Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=1273","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Our \u201dtemperature indicator\u201d for China rises slightly to 6.2 - but the growth outlook remains moderate - China Research","og_description":"Summary \u00a4 Our so-called \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for the Chinese economy improved somewhat to 6.2 in\u00a0December 2013 compared to 5.4 in June 2013 (10=extremely overheated). 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