{"id":2066,"date":"2016-02-25T14:24:41","date_gmt":"2016-02-25T13:24:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2066"},"modified":"2018-09-13T09:53:28","modified_gmt":"2018-09-13T08:53:28","slug":"lnus-china-panel-no-21-february-23-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2066","title":{"rendered":"LNU\u2019s China Panel No 21 \u2013 February 23, 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cOur (Growth-)Temperature Indicator Falls to 4.0 \u2013 the Second Lowest Ever \u201d<\/p>\n

Summary<\/em><\/strong>
\nBetween January 8 and February 4, we made our regular winter survey on growth conditions in China. The structural part of our survey is addressed this time in the beginning of the year \u2013 and not, as usual, in spring. Almost 20 China experts participated, coming from Europa, North America and Asia. Best thanks to all of them!<\/p>\n

\u00a4 Our so-called temperature indicator for the Chinese economy fell visibly to 4.0 from 4.3 last spring. This is only 0.1 percentage point above our all-time low in spring 2009.<\/p>\n

\u00a4 There is a slight downward revision for GDP growth in 2016 (to 6.3 from 6.5 % last May, based on official statistics for 2015) \u2013 with some downward bias. 6.3 percent is probably quite close to the lower limit of what officials currently can accept. But the quality of GDP growth is considered by China\u2019s top politicians as more important than the pure numbers. The main contribution to GDP growth in 2016 is expected to come from consumption.<\/p>\n

\u00a4 The panel also identified the three biggest short-term problems: 1) financial markets (generally), 2) debt problems, 3) weaker currency (RMB).<\/p>\n

\u00a4 Some structural issues (scale 1 – 10, 10 = very good) on
\na) quality of economic statistics: 3.7
\nb) quality of corporate accounting: 3.5
\nc) transparency of financial markets: 3.5
\nd) marketization of the banking system: 3.8
\ne) marketization of the stock market: 3.7
\nf) marketization of the bond market: 4.5<\/p>\n

\"GDP\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Click the image to open in fullsize<\/p>\n

Download the full report here, ChinaPanelSurveyFebruary2016.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong>
\n<\/em>Senior Professor of International Economics, Linnaeus University
\nEditorial board<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Back to Start Page<\/a>
\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cOur (Growth-)Temperature Indicator Falls to 4.0 \u2013 the Second Lowest Ever \u201d Summary Between January 8 and February 4, we made our regular winter survey on growth conditions in China. The structural part of our survey is addressed this time in the beginning of the year \u2013 and not, as usual, in spring. Almost 20 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13398,18949],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-2","category-china-panel-survey"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nLNU\u2019s China Panel No 21 \u2013 February 23, 2016 - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2066\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"LNU\u2019s China Panel No 21 \u2013 February 23, 2016 - China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u201cOur (Growth-)Temperature Indicator Falls to 4.0 \u2013 the Second Lowest Ever \u201d Summary Between January 8 and February 4, we made our regular winter survey on growth conditions in China. 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