{"id":2116,"date":"2016-04-13T06:21:57","date_gmt":"2016-04-13T05:21:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2116"},"modified":"2016-04-13T06:21:57","modified_gmt":"2016-04-13T05:21:57","slug":"chinas-new-economic-policy-re-visited-this-time-will-be-different-but-how-different-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2116","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s new economic policy re-visited \u2013 this time will be different, but how different?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>China\u2019s new economic policy will have \u2013 or should have &#8211; an impact on many corporate decisions, both within and outside China. To what extent, of course, depends on the future success of the ongoing economic reform policy and its specific advances. Both the financial and the non-financial sector will be affected. Success or failure will be characterized for the time being by what economists since almost 100 years ago call \u201cKnightian uncertainty\u201d, i.e. that the outcome of an event or a development cannot be given any probability.<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, China\u2019s political leaders want to raise the quality of economic growth by achieving more value-added products in industry and a considerable relative increase of the service sector in total production &#8211; created by education, research, innovation, new (green) technology, IT and mass entrepreneurship. All this is based on the forward-looking decisions of the Third Plenum in November 2013, a kind of manifesto for China\u2019s new economic policy which is relatively well based on Western economic research.<\/p>\n<p>It is important to be aware of the fact that many of these reforms will have an impact on countries and corporations all over the globe. For this reason, many foreign and domestic Chinese companies will have to revise their business models for the Chinese market, adapting to urbanization, demography, more competitive products, new preferences of consumers, new environmental rules and many other challenges.<\/p>\n<p>New commercial opportunities and challenges will become increasingly logical and transparent in line with the realization of the new economic policy and the \u201cMade in China 2025\u201dupgrading strategy. But gradually \u2013 for structural reasons &#8211; weakening markets in China should also be recognized on time. More academic field research may be a promising supplement in these respects.<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s new economic policy will lead to many major and minor changes. Temporary and unsteady analysis of the economy becomes more and more inadequate. China has to be analyzed continuously and not only on special occasions when a new global forecast or sales plan has to be prepared for the company itself or for its customers. Quantitative (statistical) macroeconomic analysis has, however, many shortcomings and should thus not be relied on too heavily. Instead, more emphasis should be placed on the qualitative improvements of economic growth (which is not easy) and also on the possible risks that may show up in the forthcoming years.<\/p>\n<p>Traditional brief macroeconomic analysis \u2013 the \u201cautomatic\u201d assumption of unchanged political conditions included \u2013 cannot be applied anymore to a country that will likely change to a great extent in the next decade in order to be able to maintain or achieve what Chinese top politicians call a \u201cmoderately prosperous society in all respects\u201c\u2013 and to escape from or avoid the middle-income trap. More interdisciplinary research that includes politics, institutions, sociology, psychology, the environment, health, etc., is certainly needed. China has to be analyzed from different angles, much more rigorously than many analysts have done in the past.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.lnu.se\/image.ashx?id=117818&amp;w=110\" alt=\"\" width=\"110\" height=\"136\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong><em><br \/>\n<\/em>Senior Professor of International Economics, Linnaeus University<br \/>\n<a href=\"..\/editorial-board\/\">Editorial board<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\">Back to Start Page<\/a><em><br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China\u2019s new economic policy will have \u2013 or should have &#8211; an impact on many corporate decisions, both within and outside China. To what extent, of course, depends on the future success of the ongoing economic reform policy and its specific advances. Both the financial and the non-financial sector will be affected. Success or failure [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13398],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>China\u2019s new economic policy re-visited \u2013 this time will be different, but how different? - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2116\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s new economic policy re-visited \u2013 this time will be different, but how different? - China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"China\u2019s new economic policy will have \u2013 or should have &#8211; an impact on many corporate decisions, both within and outside China. To what extent, of course, depends on the future success of the ongoing economic reform policy and its specific advances. Both the financial and the non-financial sector will be affected. Success or failure [&hellip;]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2116\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-04-13T05:21:57+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/image.lnu.se\/image.ashx?id=117818&amp;w=110\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2116\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2116\",\"name\":\"China\u2019s new economic policy re-visited \u2013 this time will be different, but how different? - China Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2016-04-13T05:21:57+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-04-13T05:21:57+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2116\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/\",\"name\":\"China Research\",\"description\":\"A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China  \u2013                                          from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5\",\"name\":\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?author=174\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"China\u2019s new economic policy re-visited \u2013 this time will be different, but how different? - China Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2116","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"China\u2019s new economic policy re-visited \u2013 this time will be different, but how different? - China Research","og_description":"China\u2019s new economic policy will have \u2013 or should have &#8211; an impact on many corporate decisions, both within and outside China. 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