{"id":2264,"date":"2016-12-13T09:33:33","date_gmt":"2016-12-13T08:33:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2264"},"modified":"2016-12-13T09:33:33","modified_gmt":"2016-12-13T08:33:33","slug":"china-is-really-slowing-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2264","title":{"rendered":"China is really slowing down"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the past, I have been writing a lot of lines on the insufficient quality of Chinese statistics \u2013 on this page, too. Today I wonder how the state of the Chinese economy really looks like. Could it be worse than most people think?<\/p>\n

It is hard to tell since statistical transparency does not belong to China\u2019s major strengths. But one has to think twice when analyzing current<\/em> economic statistics. Certain numbers have come down quite visibly in 2016 and even much more sharply since, for example, the strong stimulation year of 2010. Some numbers can show developments more clearly (changes in %):<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/strong><\/td>\n2010<\/strong><\/td>\n2015<\/strong><\/td>\n2016<\/strong><\/td>\n(period)<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GDP growth (yoy)<\/td>\n10.6<\/td>\n6.9<\/td>\n6.7<\/td>\nq 1-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Industrial production (yoy)<\/td>\n15.7<\/td>\n6.1<\/td>\n6.0<\/td>\n1-9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fixed investment (yoy, nominal)<\/td>\n23.8<\/td>\n10.0<\/td>\n8.3<\/td>\n1-10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Retail trade (yoy, nominal)<\/td>\n23.3<\/td>\n14.7<\/td>\n10.3<\/td>\n1-10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Current account balance (%\/GDP)<\/td>\n3.9<\/td>\n3.0<\/td>\n2.2<\/td>\nq 1-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sources: NBS, BOFIT<\/em><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

There is now doubt: The Chinese economy has been slowing down substantially in the past few years. This is even confirmed by official GDP-growth statistics. Some indicators show also a rapid deceleration of important growth indicators since last year \u2013 but without affecting GDP-growth rates very much. This may be another conundrum.<\/p>\n

If the slowdown of Chinese GDP growth cannot be stopped soon, this could be bad news for Chinese economic reform policy and the main political leaders as well \u2013 particularly since the major part of the Standing Committee has to be replaced next fall (but most probably not the Chairman and the Prime Minister).<\/p>\n

Conclusion: Politics will become more important during next year in China as well \u2013 not only initiated by the next president of the United States but also originated in China. This should be kept in mind!<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong>
\n<\/em>Senior Professor of International Economics, Linnaeus University
\nEditorial board<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Back to Start Page<\/a>
\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the past, I have been writing a lot of lines on the insufficient quality of Chinese statistics \u2013 on this page, too. Today I wonder how the state of the Chinese economy really looks like. Could it be worse than most people think? It is hard to tell since statistical transparency does not belong […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13398],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nChina is really slowing down - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2264\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China is really slowing down - China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the past, I have been writing a lot of lines on the insufficient quality of Chinese statistics \u2013 on this page, too. 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