{"id":2267,"date":"2016-12-28T11:33:42","date_gmt":"2016-12-28T10:33:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2267"},"modified":"2018-09-13T09:52:40","modified_gmt":"2018-09-13T08:52:40","slug":"lnus-china-panel-no-22-december-28-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2267","title":{"rendered":"LNU\u2019s China Panel No 22 \u2013 December 28, 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>Temperature Indicator rises \u2013 but no real progress<\/h3>\n<p><strong><em>Summary<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Between November 22 and December 16, we made our regular fall\/winter survey on business conditions in China. More than 15 prominent China experts participated, coming from Europe, North America and Asia.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 Our so-called <strong>growth-temperature indicator<\/strong> for the Chinese economy rose this time from 4.0 in spring this year to <strong>5.2<\/strong> (on a scale from 10 = very good, to 1 = very bad). Despite this improvement, 5.2 is reflecting one of the weakest numbers since the survey started in 2004.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 For 2017, our panel sees <strong>GDP growth<\/strong> at 6.1 percent which is slightly below consensus and official forecasts at around 6 \u00bd percent. Even 6.1 percent would probably be still acceptable for China\u2019s political leadership \u2013 but not lower than this. Only 29 percent think that planned reforms from the Third Plenum in 2013 are on track.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 More than 90 percent of the participants believe that there is still a dangerous price <strong>bubble<\/strong> on the Chinese real estate market \u2013 but not really on the stock market (23 percent).<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 The three major short-term <strong>concerns<\/strong> for the next few years are (ranked):<br \/>\ndebt\/non-performing loans, bursting housing bubble, persisting overcapacity in industry.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 General <strong>confidence<\/strong> in the Chinese economy in the forthcoming five years is located at 2.6 (scale 5 to 1, 5=very good). This is slightly weaker than in February 2016 (3.0), reflecting somewhat increasing doubts about China\u2019s economic future more recently.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/files\/2016\/12\/GDP_fall2016.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-medium wp-image-2269\" src=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/files\/2016\/12\/GDP_fall2016-300x73.png\" alt=\"gdp_fall2016\" width=\"467\" height=\"120\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Read the full article here. <a href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/files\/2016\/12\/ChinaPanelSurveyDecember2016.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">chinapanelsurveydecember2016.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.lnu.se\/image.ashx?id=117818&amp;w=110\" alt=\"\" width=\"110\" height=\"136\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong><em><br \/>\n<\/em>Senior Professor of International Economics, Linnaeus University<br \/>\n<a href=\"..\/editorial-board\/\">Editorial board<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\">Back to Start Page<\/a><em><br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Temperature Indicator rises \u2013 but no real progress Summary Between November 22 and December 16, we made our regular fall\/winter survey on business conditions in China. More than 15 prominent China experts participated, coming from Europe, North America and Asia. \u00a4\u00a0 Our so-called growth-temperature indicator for the Chinese economy rose this time from 4.0 in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13398,18949],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-2","category-china-panel-survey"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>LNU\u2019s China Panel No 22 \u2013 December 28, 2016 - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2267\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"LNU\u2019s China Panel No 22 \u2013 December 28, 2016 - China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Temperature Indicator rises \u2013 but no real progress Summary Between November 22 and December 16, we made our regular fall\/winter survey on business conditions in China. More than 15 prominent China experts participated, coming from Europe, North America and Asia. \u00a4\u00a0 Our so-called growth-temperature indicator for the Chinese economy rose this time from 4.0 in [&hellip;]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2267\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-12-28T10:33:42+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-09-13T08:52:40+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/files\/2016\/12\/GDP_fall2016-300x73.png\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2267\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2267\",\"name\":\"LNU\u2019s China Panel No 22 \u2013 December 28, 2016 - China Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2016-12-28T10:33:42+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-09-13T08:52:40+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2267\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/\",\"name\":\"China Research\",\"description\":\"A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China  \u2013                                          from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5\",\"name\":\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?author=174\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"LNU\u2019s China Panel No 22 \u2013 December 28, 2016 - China Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2267","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"LNU\u2019s China Panel No 22 \u2013 December 28, 2016 - China Research","og_description":"Temperature Indicator rises \u2013 but no real progress Summary Between November 22 and December 16, we made our regular fall\/winter survey on business conditions in China. 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