{"id":2501,"date":"2018-03-22T13:14:41","date_gmt":"2018-03-22T12:14:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2501"},"modified":"2018-03-22T13:15:06","modified_gmt":"2018-03-22T12:15:06","slug":"the-economic-analysis-of-china-should-now-be-modified","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2501","title":{"rendered":"The economic analysis of China should now be modified"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Not very surprisingly, the very recent 13<sup>th <\/sup>National People\u2019s Congress was not dominated by economic issues but by the even further strengthened political power of Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party, President of the People\u2019s Republic of China and also Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Xi received now even more personal power by some important constitutional changes than he already had created before, giving him the opportunity to continue his presidency also beyond 2022. Xi\u2019s core status was also underlined by the new guiding ideology in the Constitution, expressed by the now included formulation that \u201cthe leadership of the Communist Party is the defining future of socialism with Chinese characteristics\u201d &#8211; more exactly the \u201cthoughts\u201d of Xi Jinping.<\/p>\n<p>In my view, \u201cChinese characteristics\u201d also should be applied when it comes to economic analysis which so far has been made very superficially in our part of the world. Prime Minister Li Keqiang\u2019s latest forecast for 2018 &#8211; predicting 6 \u00bd percent for GDP growth &#8211; does not imply any deceleration of economic growth as interpreted in a number of Western newspapers. Furthermore, a little bit higher GDP growth than predicted remains certainly in the cards \u2013 particularly for giving Xi recognition for successful economic leadership. However, Li\u2019s comments on major risks seem to be more interesting, i.e. mainly his concerns about financial risks, poverty and the environment which are indeed embedded in a number of major goal conflicts \u2013 goal conflicts that I have pointed at frequently in this blog and published papers of mine.<\/p>\n<p>Xi Jinping\u2019s strengthened core leadership urges now for a number of analytical changes and attempts to find answers to difficult questions. Below, there are some examples:<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 How will Xi handle relations to the U.S. and Trump\u2019s protectionism?<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 To what extent does Xi want to\u00a0 stick completely to the reform plans by the Third Plenum from 2013 \u2013 and will there be new priorities and solutions to the related conflicts of goals?<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 Now \u2013 with so much power in the hands of one single person but also rising direct personal responsibility \u2013 how determined will Xi handle potential failures or setbacks?<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 How good are the chances of, finally, improving or even maintaining transparency in the potential \u00a0case of increasing problems \u2013 and what about the necessary qualitative development of statistics?<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 Where could the domestic warning signals come from if things go in the wrong direction?<\/p>\n<p>These are only a few examples and questions related to Xi\u2019s strong leadership. It should be clear that also economic analysis \u2013 especially when applying a longer perspective \u2013 much more should be based on politics than in the past. Noting a certain number for GDP growth \u2013 even when exceeding (official) expectations \u2013 is about to become a (further) weakening guideline for future GDP growth and other macroeconomic forecasts. Careful political and \u2013 may be \u2013 psychological analysis has to be added to macroeconomic forecasts and conclusions.<\/p>\n<p>Conditions are changing within China \u2013 and also China\u2019s international relations. For this reason, economic analysis tools for China should be developed further as pointed at above. Official GDP growth is certainly not enough at all for analyzing trends in the Chinese economy.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.lnu.se\/image.ashx?id=117818&amp;w=110\" alt=\"\" width=\"110\" height=\"136\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong><em><br \/>\n<\/em>Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University<br \/>\n<a href=\"..\/editorial-board\/\">Editorial board<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\">Back to Start Page<\/a><em><br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Not very surprisingly, the very recent 13th National People\u2019s Congress was not dominated by economic issues but by the even further strengthened political power of Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party, President of the People\u2019s Republic of China and also Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Xi received now even more personal power [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13398],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>The economic analysis of China should now be modified - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2501\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The economic analysis of China should now be modified - China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Not very surprisingly, the very recent 13th National People\u2019s Congress was not dominated by economic issues but by the even further strengthened political power of Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party, President of the People\u2019s Republic of China and also Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Xi received now even more personal power [&hellip;]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2501\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-03-22T12:14:41+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-03-22T12:15:06+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/image.lnu.se\/image.ashx?id=117818&amp;w=110\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2501\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2501\",\"name\":\"The economic analysis of China should now be modified - China Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2018-03-22T12:14:41+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-03-22T12:15:06+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2501\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/\",\"name\":\"China Research\",\"description\":\"A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China  \u2013                                          from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5\",\"name\":\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?author=174\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The economic analysis of China should now be modified - China Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2501","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The economic analysis of China should now be modified - China Research","og_description":"Not very surprisingly, the very recent 13th National People\u2019s Congress was not dominated by economic issues but by the even further strengthened political power of Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Communist Party, President of the People\u2019s Republic of China and also Chairman of the Central Military Commission. 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