{"id":2674,"date":"2019-01-07T08:24:59","date_gmt":"2019-01-07T07:24:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2674"},"modified":"2019-01-07T08:24:59","modified_gmt":"2019-01-07T07:24:59","slug":"chinas-latest-pmi-worries-but-another-development-gives-more-concern","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2674","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s latest PMI worries \u2013 but another development gives more concern"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kinas senaste ink\u00f6pschefsindex \u00e5terspeglar ingen recession \u2013 men ytterligare s\u00e4nkta kassakrav f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker oron<\/strong><\/p>\n

Med det nya \u00e5rets f\u00f6rsta nummer av denna blogg p\u00e5b\u00f6rjas h\u00e4r en liten innovation. Fortfarande skrivs merparten av analyserna mestadels p\u00e5 engelska. F\u00f6r att v\u00e4cka ytterligare intresse h\u00e4r hemma f\u00f6r Kinas ekonomiska utveckling – vilken blir allt viktigare f\u00f6r den globala ekonomin och Sverige – har vi fram\u00f6ver ocks\u00e5 en liten sammanfattning p\u00e5 svenska.<\/p>\n

Tv\u00e5 huvudsakliga slutsatser kan dras av nedanst\u00e5ende analys. F\u00f6r det f\u00f6rsta betyder siffror som ligger endast sn\u00e4ppet under 50-strecket ingalunda att en recession \u00e4r n\u00e4ra f\u00f6rest\u00e5ende \u2013 utan endast l\u00e5ngsammare tillv\u00e4xt. Recessionsgr\u00e4nsen varierar fr\u00e5n land till land och kan ligga i olika l\u00e4nder kanske kring 35 till 45. N\u00e4rmare information om detta f\u00e5s dock endast genom mer djupg\u00e5ende, landspecifika unders\u00f6kningar.<\/p>\n

Det betyder ocks\u00e5 att Kinas senaste PMI-industrisiffror<\/strong> strax under 50 ej f\u00e5r j\u00e4mst\u00e4llas med en p\u00e5b\u00f6rjad recession – utan \u201dendast\u201d med en inbromsning av tillv\u00e4xttakten (vilket dock kan vara allvarligt nog eftersom kinesisk statistik ofta inte \u00e4r riktigt tillf\u00f6rlitlig, speciellt vid en utveckling \u00e5t fel h\u00e5ll).<\/p>\n

Men det kom en annan negativ konjunktursignal i b\u00f6rjan av det nya \u00e5ret som framkallar klart st\u00f6rre oro hos mig \u00e4n PMI statistiken, det vill s\u00e4ga aviseringen av en f\u00f6rnyad \u2013 ganska omfattande \u2013 s\u00e4nkning av bankernas kassakrav<\/strong>. Denna \u00e5tg\u00e4rd kan ge ett tydligt ut\u00f6kat utrymme till nya krediter och s\u00e5ledes fungera som konjunkturstimulans. F\u00f6r mig \u00e4r bankernas kassakrav kanske Kinas viktigaste konjunkturindikator, speciellt vid en (p\u00e5g\u00e5ende) konjunkturf\u00f6rsvagning.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s latest PMI does not indicate a recession \u2013 but lower cash requirements for banks increase worries <\/strong><\/p>\n

China has two different PMI producers (see my analysis from September 2018 https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/blog\/china-2\/chinas-statistical-conundrums-the-example-of-the-pmis\/<\/a> – where I also explained some specific characteristics of the PMI). When looking at comments on the official Chinese PMI for December 2018 – the larger one of two Chinese PMIs, produced by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the logistics and purchasing organization CFLP – I found again some articles interpreting the December number of 49.4 as \u201cbelow the official borderline for growth\u201d. However, this \u201cgrowth limit\u201d is not really true – but may indicate that some further weakening of Chinese growth rates could be on its way. (In general terms, ongoing or commencing recessions mostly can be singled out when the PMI index has been falling to a range around 35-45, varying between different countries. For more exact estimates, specific calculations must be made country by country; more precise studies for China\u2019s PMIs remain absent in this specific context).<\/p>\n

More weakening ahead \u2013 and a slightly lower target for GDP growth <\/strong><\/p>\n

In reality, some more weakening of the Chinese economy may be plausible or even probable. The question, however, is to what extent Chinese statistics transparently will \u201cverify\u201d such a possible and negative economic development any time soon. Chinese authorities prefer instead to show very gradual and small changes between two months or two quarters. This is also why I do not believe in any sizeable GDP change for Q4 in 2018. Q3 gave a Chinese GDP change of 6.5 percent compared to Q3 one year earlier \u2013 the lowest growth rate since Q1 ten years ago.<\/p>\n

The lowest number that can be expected for Q4 of 2018 should therefore be 6.3 percent. Any number lower than 6.3 percent, I would interpret as a kind of official confirmation that things are really going in the wrong direction. 6.4 to 6.6 percent still looks most probable \u2013 perhaps including some window dressing. <\/em><\/p>\n

I would also guess that new objective for GDP growth in 2019 will be 6 up to 6 \u00bc or 6\u00bd percent \u2013 but most probably not lower than 6 percent. Things should not develop too badly the year before the official evaluation of achievements since 2014 \u2013 at least not according to the official version. And in 2021, time has come for celebrating the 100th <\/sup>anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party. The need of an impressing success story is obvious. <\/em><\/p>\n

Waiting for January 21<\/strong><\/p>\n

We are waiting impatiently for China\u2019s next GDP statistics which will be published as soon as January 21<\/strong> for both Q4 and the whole of 2018. However, interpretation of the so-called underlying growth development – i.e. in reality – will remain difficult.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong>
\n<\/em>Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
\nEditorial board<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Back to Start Page<\/a>
\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kinas senaste ink\u00f6pschefsindex \u00e5terspeglar ingen recession \u2013 men ytterligare s\u00e4nkta kassakrav f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker oron Med det nya \u00e5rets f\u00f6rsta nummer av denna blogg p\u00e5b\u00f6rjas h\u00e4r en liten innovation. Fortfarande skrivs merparten av analyserna mestadels p\u00e5 engelska. F\u00f6r att v\u00e4cka ytterligare intresse h\u00e4r hemma f\u00f6r Kinas ekonomiska utveckling – vilken blir allt viktigare f\u00f6r den globala ekonomin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13398],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nChina\u2019s latest PMI worries \u2013 but another development gives more concern - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2674\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s latest PMI worries \u2013 but another development gives more concern - China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kinas senaste ink\u00f6pschefsindex \u00e5terspeglar ingen recession \u2013 men ytterligare s\u00e4nkta kassakrav f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker oron Med det nya \u00e5rets f\u00f6rsta nummer av denna blogg p\u00e5b\u00f6rjas h\u00e4r en liten innovation. 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