{"id":2678,"date":"2019-01-21T15:26:34","date_gmt":"2019-01-21T14:26:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2678"},"modified":"2019-01-21T16:09:35","modified_gmt":"2019-01-21T15:09:35","slug":"chinas-gdp-growth-no-surprise-at-all","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2678","title":{"rendered":"China&#8217;s GDP growth &#8211; no surprise at all"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In my latest blog I wrote that &#8220;the lowest number that can be expected for Q4 of 2018 should be 6.3 percent (for GDP growth). Any number lower than 6.3 percent, I would interpret as a kind of official confirmation that things are really going in the wrong direction&#8230;&#8221;. However, this seems to be the case all the same by officially confirming a lower GDP-growth number again (GDP q4:\u00a0+6.4 percent yoy, q3: 6.5, 2019 compared to 2018:\u00a0+ 6.6, in line with the official 6.5 objective).<\/p>\n<p>Altogether, the latest Chinese GDP development is no surprise. The development continues to calm down. The political leadership is worried (see my latest blog). Further decreases of the banks&#8217; cash requirement and other stimuli will most probably come. The total volume and success of the planned structural reforms become therefore more uncertain.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.lnu.se\/image.ashx?id=117818&amp;w=110\" alt=\"\" width=\"110\" height=\"136\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong><em><br \/>\n<\/em>Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University<br \/>\n<a href=\"..\/editorial-board\/\">Editorial board<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\">Back to Start Page<\/a><em><br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In my latest blog I wrote that &#8220;the lowest number that can be expected for Q4 of 2018 should be 6.3 percent (for GDP growth). Any number lower than 6.3 percent, I would interpret as a kind of official confirmation that things are really going in the wrong direction&#8230;&#8221;. However, this seems to be the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13398],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>China&#039;s GDP growth - no surprise at all - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2678\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China&#039;s GDP growth - no surprise at all - China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In my latest blog I wrote that &#8220;the lowest number that can be expected for Q4 of 2018 should be 6.3 percent (for GDP growth). Any number lower than 6.3 percent, I would interpret as a kind of official confirmation that things are really going in the wrong direction&#8230;&#8221;. However, this seems to be the [&hellip;]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2678\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-01-21T14:26:34+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-01-21T15:09:35+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/image.lnu.se\/image.ashx?id=117818&amp;w=110\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2678\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2678\",\"name\":\"China's GDP growth - no surprise at all - China Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-01-21T14:26:34+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-01-21T15:09:35+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2678\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/\",\"name\":\"China Research\",\"description\":\"A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China  \u2013                                          from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5\",\"name\":\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?author=174\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"China's GDP growth - no surprise at all - China Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2678","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"China's GDP growth - no surprise at all - China Research","og_description":"In my latest blog I wrote that &#8220;the lowest number that can be expected for Q4 of 2018 should be 6.3 percent (for GDP growth). 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