{"id":2715,"date":"2019-02-26T15:08:13","date_gmt":"2019-02-26T14:08:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2715"},"modified":"2019-02-28T16:51:04","modified_gmt":"2019-02-28T15:51:04","slug":"india-challenges-after-the-general-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2715","title":{"rendered":"India \u2013 challenges after the general elections"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

____________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indien \u2013 utmaningar efter det\nstundande valet  <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sammanfattning p\u00e5 svenska<\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

I april\/maj g\u00e5r n\u00e4rmare 900 miljoner r\u00f6stber\u00e4ttigade indier till val. Det f\u00f6refaller tveksamt om den nuvarande konservativa (religi\u00f6sa) och nationalistiska regeringskoalitionen National Democratic Alliance (NDA) med Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) och premi\u00e4rminister Narendra Modi i spetsen \u00e5ter kan klara egen majorit\u00e4t. Opinionsm\u00e4tningarna pekar snarare p\u00e5 behovet av en bredare NDA-koalition. Oppositionens United Progressive Alliance (UPA) med Kongresspartiet i t\u00e4ten befinner sig opinionsm\u00e4ssigt alltj\u00e4mt i ett tydligt underl\u00e4ge. Likv\u00e4l r\u00e5der i Indien \u2013 v\u00e4rldens st\u00f6rsta demokrati – f\u00f6r n\u00e4rvarande p\u00e5taglig politisk os\u00e4kerhet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Makroekonomiskt ligger Indien ganska hyggligt till med en \u2013\nvisserligen l\u00e4tt avtagande – BNP-tillv\u00e4xt kring 7 %, v\u00e4l underbyggd av den\nexpansiva servicesektorn. Inflationen kring 2 \u00bd  % \u00e4r acceptabel f\u00f6r en emerging market (om \u00e4n\nn\u00e5got l\u00e5g) liksom bytesbalansunderskottet n\u00e4ra 3 % av BNP. Orov\u00e4ckande \u00e4r\nemellertid fortfarande centralstatens och delstaternas samlade budgetunderskott\nkring 9 %. Samma siffra fanns redan f\u00f6r 20 \u00e5r sedan, n\u00e4r jag b\u00f6rjade resa till\nIndien. Det offentliga skuldl\u00e4get inneb\u00e4r fortfarande begr\u00e4nsningar f\u00f6r\nframtida, mycket kostsamma struktursatsningar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Det \u00e4r samtidigt viktigt att inte stirra sig blind p\u00e5 BNP-tillv\u00e4xten. Stora utmaningar v\u00e4ntar den nya regeringen. Omr\u00e5den som b\u00f6r f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttras \u00e4r bl a h\u00e4lso- och sjukv\u00e5rdssystemet, arbetsmarknaden, infrastrukturen, milj\u00f6n, bankv\u00e4sendet och m\u00e5nga institutioner (korruptionsproblemet). De politiska sp\u00e4nningarna mellan Indien och Pakistan utg\u00f6r tyv\u00e4rr en permanent riskfaktor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under det kommande \u00e5ren torde Indiens BNP kunna stiga med 6-7 % per \u00e5r, troligen b\u00e4st bland stora emerging markets. \u00c5tminstone potentialen borde ligga p\u00e5 dessa h\u00f6jder. De globala handelskonflikterna ber\u00f6r Indien mindre \u00e4n Kina. Som positiv framtidsfaktor ter sig – i motsats till Kina \u2013 speciellt demografin. Icke att f\u00f6rgl\u00f6mma: Indiens enorma storlek som land med \u00e5tf\u00f6ljande enormt stora absoluta tal vad g\u00e4ller m\u00f6jligheten inom forskning och utveckling, speciellt avseende IT, AI och m\u00e5nga service- respektive verkstadsprodukter. Och last but not least: J\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med Kina har Indien fler \u201dsympathy points\u201d i v\u00e4st. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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English version<\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

In April\nand May this year, India \u2013 often called the largest democracy in the world \u2013\nwill hold Congress elections. There are almost 900 million potential voters to\nfind their favorite representatives for their central parliament in Delhi named\nLok Sabha. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Currently,\nIndia is ruled with absolute majority by a conservative and religious\/nationalist\ncoalition called National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under the leadership of the\nBharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The\nopposition is represented by United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by the\npreviously long-time ruling Congress Party (the political domicile of the\nGandhi family).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Right now,\nspeculations and forecasts show up frequently, trying to single out whether the\nNDA will continue to govern India after the forthcoming general elections or\nnot. The so-called \u201cModi wave\u201d has been cooling down. Doubts have increased\nafter a couple of losses in state elections last year \u2013 at least as regards the\ncontinuation of the current composition of the government. Most observers,\nhowever, believe that the current coalition can continue to rule – but has most\nprobably to be widened for the survival of the NDA. There is a general belief\nthat such an enlarged coalition will focus more on social improvements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Good growth is not all  –  budget deficits remain worrisome<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

GDP<\/em> in India is currently growing by around 7 % \u2013 which\nis good compared to other major emerging countries but reflecting some\ndownsizing from previous growth rates (\u201cModi average\u201d 2014-2018: 7.3 %). Inflation <\/em>has been brought down to\nslightly above 2 % which may be even too low for an emerging market. Positive conclusions\ncan be drawn about the balance on current\naccount <\/em>with deficits still around 3 % of GDP \u2013 but the slightly weakening\ndevelopment should be observed further. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most reason for concern still comes from the permanent political tensions with Pakistan and the public budget deficit. <\/em>The latter topic is not so much taken up by the Indians themselves. <\/em>In many publications, numbers like 3.5 or 4 % of GDP are mentioned which, however, only summarizes the debt of the central government and does not include the even higher indebtedness of the federal states (5-6% of GDP). Altogether, the total Indian government debt at around 9-10 % remains very negative and sets certainly limits to many future-oriented public investments. Goal conflicts will be inevitable. By the way, debt ratios of this size existed already more than 20 years ago when I started to visit and analyze India (meeting there – mostly \u2013 very skilled economists). This is another example of the fact that India in most cases does not move very quickly in the right direction.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reforms \u2013 results and future needs   <\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Economic\npolicy of the Modi government is mostly described as relatively liberal and\nopen for globalization. To what extent this really is the case in a Western\nsense could be a matter of discussion. However, a number of policy moves in the\nright direction could be noted in the past years of the Modi administration. Some\nprogress has been achieved \u2013 e.g. in macroeconomic stabilization and\nimprovements of conditions for foreign direct investments (FDI). However, much\nmore has to be done by the next government coalition which according to many\nIndian experts will go more strongly for social improvements – both in the case\nof an enlarged NDA or an UPA government. So far, Modi has been working for\ndownsizing of social costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, what\nshould be done by the next government? Many areas of improvements and reforms\ncan be recognized, such as<\/p>\n\n\n\n