{"id":2835,"date":"2019-09-10T08:00:24","date_gmt":"2019-09-10T07:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2835"},"modified":"2020-01-20T08:57:26","modified_gmt":"2020-01-20T07:57:26","slug":"alarming-signal-from-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2835","title":{"rendered":"Alarming signal from China"},"content":{"rendered":"<hr \/>\n<hr \/>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Larmtecken fr\u00e5n Kina<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Sammanfattning \/ Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kina har gjort det igen \u2013 s\u00e4nkt kassakraven f\u00f6r bankerna i centralbanken People\u2019s Bank of China. Det \u00e4r den sjunde g\u00e5ngen p\u00e5 knappt tv\u00e5 \u00e5r och redan den tredje g\u00e5ngen under innevarande \u00e5r. Det b\u00f6r tas som ett larmtecken trots f\u00f6rekommande tillf\u00f6rsikt av en del analytiker och kapitalf\u00f6rvaltare. F\u00f6r mig \u00e4r bankernas kassakrav en vida viktigare konjunkturindikator \u00e4n, till exempel, Kinas tv\u00e5 ink\u00f6pschefsindex. Reducerade kassakrav \u00f6kar ocks\u00e5 risken f\u00f6r f\u00f6rsummat och eftersl\u00e4pande strukturarbete.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>It happened again: Chinese decision-makers lowered the banks\u2019 cash requirements in the People\u2019s Bank of China (PBoC) by another 0.5 percentage points for larger banks (and even more for smaller banks), already for the third time this year. This step means a relief by 900 billion yuan (or equivalent to 126 billion USD on September 6) that can be used for new credits.<\/p>\n<p>In my own interpretation, this latest reduction is another clear signal by Chinese political decision-makers &#8211; obviously mainly promoted by Prime Minister Li Keqiang &#8211; that the economy keeps on giving strong reasons for concern. Furthermore, the latest reduction is already the seventh since the beginning of last year \u2013 i.e. the beginning of the trade war with the U.S. (or the other way around if you want). This is quite a trend. It also could be added that I did not find any remark about this important policy measure on the website of the PBoC (hopefully I missed it myself).<\/p>\n<p>It should not be overlooked that the further loosened credit conditions also increase the risk of undermined structural changes and improvements &#8211; as already in detail decided six years ago at the Third Plenum of the Communist Party. Evaluation will take place next year!<\/p>\n<p>Also in this blog, I have often expressed that reductions of cash requirements in the PBoC are a good indicator for growth problems in the Chinese economy. In such a situation, GDP numbers use to become less reliable. Thus, I give more analytical attention to this ongoing real monetary policy than to the forthcoming statistical GDP numbers for q3 and q4, close to (most probably) 6 %.<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, a clear result of the American-Chinese trade war can be seen also in the American trade numbers. In the first half of 2019, American imports from China declined by 19 percent \u2013 and American exports by remarkable 12 percent as well (with Chinese export values four times higher than the American). This loss of American exports to China indicates clearly that trade wars are <strong>not <\/strong>\u201ceasy to win\u201d, contrary to what President Trump commented some time ago. Even global losses are obvious these days!<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lnu.se\/api\/media\/12178-fw350fh461cy28cw350ch350\" alt=\"\" width=\"110\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong><em><br \/>\n<\/em>Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University<br \/>\n<a href=\"..\/editorial-board\/\">Editorial board<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\">Back to Start Page<\/a><em><br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Larmtecken fr\u00e5n Kina Sammanfattning \/ Summary Kina har gjort det igen \u2013 s\u00e4nkt kassakraven f\u00f6r bankerna i centralbanken People\u2019s Bank of China. Det \u00e4r den sjunde g\u00e5ngen p\u00e5 knappt tv\u00e5 \u00e5r och redan den tredje g\u00e5ngen under innevarande \u00e5r. Det b\u00f6r tas som ett larmtecken trots f\u00f6rekommande tillf\u00f6rsikt av en del analytiker och kapitalf\u00f6rvaltare. F\u00f6r [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13398],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Alarming signal from China - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2835\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Alarming signal from China - China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Larmtecken fr\u00e5n Kina Sammanfattning \/ Summary Kina har gjort det igen \u2013 s\u00e4nkt kassakraven f\u00f6r bankerna i centralbanken People\u2019s Bank of China. Det \u00e4r den sjunde g\u00e5ngen p\u00e5 knappt tv\u00e5 \u00e5r och redan den tredje g\u00e5ngen under innevarande \u00e5r. Det b\u00f6r tas som ett larmtecken trots f\u00f6rekommande tillf\u00f6rsikt av en del analytiker och kapitalf\u00f6rvaltare. 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Det \u00e4r den sjunde g\u00e5ngen p\u00e5 knappt tv\u00e5 \u00e5r och redan den tredje g\u00e5ngen under innevarande \u00e5r. Det b\u00f6r tas som ett larmtecken trots f\u00f6rekommande tillf\u00f6rsikt av en del analytiker och kapitalf\u00f6rvaltare. 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