{"id":2894,"date":"2019-12-18T15:08:51","date_gmt":"2019-12-18T14:08:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2894"},"modified":"2020-01-20T08:54:55","modified_gmt":"2020-01-20T07:54:55","slug":"chinas-economy-officially-in-2020-quite-easy-to-predict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2894","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s economy (officially) in 2020: quite easy to predict"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kinas (officiella) ekonomi 2020 \u2013 relativt l\u00e4tt att prognostisera<\/h2>\n

Vanligtvis presenteras prognoser s\u00e5 h\u00e4r \u00e5rs med till\u00e4gget att bed\u00f6mningar f\u00f6r det kommande \u00e5ret denna g\u00e5ng ter sig speciellt sv\u00e5ra. \u00c5tminstone vad g\u00e4ller den ekonomiska politiken och BNP-utfallet f\u00f6r 2020 verkar os\u00e4kerheten emellertid begr\u00e4nsad avseende Kina. M\u00f6jligen kommer det officiella tillv\u00e4xtm\u00e5let f\u00f6r 2020 att s\u00e4nkas n\u00e5got fr\u00e5n 6-6 \u00bd% i \u00e5r till 6% exakt eller cirka<\/em> 6%. Hur som helst, inf\u00f6r starten av den nya 5-\u00e5rsplanen och firandet av kommunistpartiets 100 \u00e5rs jubileum \u00e5r 2021 har det officiella Kina ej r\u00e5d med en synlig tillv\u00e4xtf\u00f6rsvagning.<\/p>\n

———————————————————————————————<\/p>\n

Usually, economists add to their outlook for the coming year that predictability this time is more limited than ever. In the case of China, however, such a kind of precautionary reservation for 2020 seems to be superfluous, at least for the official China. Reality, however, may look somewhat different, i.e. GDP growth may come in (slightly) lower than official national accounting will tell us. Who knows?<\/p>\n

Very slight downward revision for intended GDP growth in 2020<\/strong><\/p>\n

2021 will be a very important year for the Communist Party of China with its 100 th <\/sup>anniversary of its founding and the first year of the new 5-year plan. For these important reasons, the political leadership of China has to deliver a GDP-growth rate around 6% in both 2019 and 2020.<\/p>\n

The official objective of meeting a GDP-growth rate between 6 and 6 \u00bd% in 2019 will certainly be met, probably very close to 6 \u00bc% (more exactly, my own number is 6.2 %). As regards 2020, an official objective for GDP<\/em> like \u201caround 6%\u201d <\/em>or \u201c6% exactly\u201d<\/em> can be expected. This would mean only a very slight downsizing from 2019. But I cannot imagine any lower goal numbers than these two at this very moment.<\/p>\n

Economic policy \u2013 (somewhat) more driven by demand-side policy<\/strong><\/p>\n

Chinese officials and economists also frequently point at the fact that the quality of growth is the main issue rather than the pure numbers. This is certainly right in theory and according to economic textbooks. However, it is hard to calculate how the distribution of annual GDP growth between more short-term sighted demand-side policy and more long-term driven supply-side policy really looks like. More transparency in this respect would be good for China as well.<\/p>\n

Despite the ambition to conduct a prudent monetary policy, further cuts of the minimum lending rate (MLR) at the People\u2019s Bank of China seem to be on the cards in the next year. In my view, cuts of the MLR tend to be the best signal by growth-worrying political leaders in China.<\/p>\n

Anyway, the Chinese clearly want to apply supply-side policy in 2020 as well. The question is rather to what extent. Maybe (somewhat) less than in 2019 \u2013 but it still will be there, pushed also by Donald Trump according to the words of Phase One of Trade Negotiations between the U.S. and China (as mentioned in my previous blog from December 14).<\/p>\n

Nota bene: For China very necessary parts of supply-side policy are embedded in the trade deal.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong>
\n<\/em>Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
\nEditorial board<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Back to Start Page<\/a>
\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kinas (officiella) ekonomi 2020 \u2013 relativt l\u00e4tt att prognostisera Vanligtvis presenteras prognoser s\u00e5 h\u00e4r \u00e5rs med till\u00e4gget att bed\u00f6mningar f\u00f6r det kommande \u00e5ret denna g\u00e5ng ter sig speciellt sv\u00e5ra. \u00c5tminstone vad g\u00e4ller den ekonomiska politiken och BNP-utfallet f\u00f6r 2020 verkar os\u00e4kerheten emellertid begr\u00e4nsad avseende Kina. M\u00f6jligen kommer det officiella tillv\u00e4xtm\u00e5let f\u00f6r 2020 att s\u00e4nkas n\u00e5got […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13398],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nChina\u2019s economy (officially) in 2020: quite easy to predict - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=2894\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s economy (officially) in 2020: quite easy to predict - China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kinas (officiella) ekonomi 2020 \u2013 relativt l\u00e4tt att prognostisera Vanligtvis presenteras prognoser s\u00e5 h\u00e4r \u00e5rs med till\u00e4gget att bed\u00f6mningar f\u00f6r det kommande \u00e5ret denna g\u00e5ng ter sig speciellt sv\u00e5ra. \u00c5tminstone vad g\u00e4ller den ekonomiska politiken och BNP-utfallet f\u00f6r 2020 verkar os\u00e4kerheten emellertid begr\u00e4nsad avseende Kina. 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