{"id":3023,"date":"2020-05-25T09:00:19","date_gmt":"2020-05-25T08:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3023"},"modified":"2020-05-25T09:22:09","modified_gmt":"2020-05-25T08:22:09","slug":"china-now-without-growth-objective-kina-skippar-tillvaxtmalet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3023","title":{"rendered":"China now without growth objective"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kina skippar tillv\u00e4xtm\u00e5let<\/h2>\n

Brief summary in Swedish \/ Sammanfattning<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Den<\/span><\/span> 22 maj inledde<\/span><\/span> Kommunistpartiets Nationella Folkkongress <\/span><\/span>– <\/span><\/span>Kinas<\/span><\/span> egen<\/span><\/span> variant av parlament – <\/span><\/span>sin \u00e5rliga sammankomst med representanter fr\u00e5<\/span><\/span>n <\/span><\/span>hela landet<\/span><\/span>. Tv\u00e5 faktorer \u00e4r s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt speciellt anm\u00e4rkningsv\u00e4rda. F\u00f6r det f\u00f6rsta har det cirka 6-procentiga tillv\u00e4xtm\u00e5let f\u00f6r 2020 tagits <\/span><\/span>bort helt och h\u00e5llet som konsekvens<\/span><\/span> av coronakrisen och den \u00e5t<\/span><\/span>f\u00f6ljande extrema prognosos\u00e4kerheten. F\u00f6r det andra vill Kinas politiska ledare <\/span><\/span>nu <\/span><\/span>b\u00f6rja bana v\u00e4g f\u00f6r en normalisering fram till \u00e5r 2021, n\u00e4r Kommunistpartiets prestigefyllda 100-\u00e5rs jubileum ska celebreras<\/span><\/span>.<\/span><\/span> Stimulans via l\u00e4gre skatter och satsningar p\u00e5 infrastruktur ska bidra till kampen mot den <\/span><\/span>betungande och potentiellt socialt hotfulla arbetsl\u00f6sheten.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

————————————————-<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

On May 22, the Communist Party of China open<\/span><\/span>ed <\/span><\/span>its 13<\/span><\/span>th <\/span><\/span>National People\u2019s C<\/span><\/span>ongress<\/span><\/span> (NPC)<\/span><\/span>, two months later than originally planned. <\/span><\/span>Almost <\/span><\/span>3<\/span><\/span> 000 delegates<\/span><\/span> come <\/span><\/span>together from all over the nation, obviously to convince the Chinese a<\/span><\/span>nd the rest of the world about the officially successful fight against the corona virus<\/span><\/span> and<\/span><\/span> that the economy is entering <\/span><\/span>the right track<\/span><\/span> again<\/span><\/span>. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Or what else could<\/span><\/span> be the <\/span><\/span>intention and <\/span><\/span>interpretation of officially reported<\/span><\/span> extremely<\/span><\/span> low daily numbers for new <\/span><\/span>corona <\/span><\/span>infections?<\/span><\/span> There is no doubt that <\/span><\/span>the official <\/span><\/span>China wants to impress as broadly<\/span><\/span> as possible <\/span><\/span>– <\/span><\/span>within and outside the country. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

A<\/span><\/span>n official<\/span><\/span> growth objective does not mak<\/span><\/span>e sense<\/span><\/span> anymore<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite the <\/span><\/span>recent <\/span><\/span>single-digit corona numbers for new daily infections, the Communist Party<\/span><\/span> has now abandoned its objective for <\/span><\/span>GDP growth<\/span><\/span> of the current<\/span><\/span> (for 2020 previously <\/span><\/span>at <\/span><\/span>\u201c<\/span><\/span>around 6 percent<\/span><\/span>\u201d<\/span><\/span>). This happened <\/span><\/span>for the first time since 1990. But it is a logical step<\/span><\/span>. <\/span><\/span>It <\/span><\/span>is certainly right that<\/span><\/span> \u2013 as singled out by Prime Minister Li Keqiang<\/span><\/span>*<\/span><\/span> \u2013<\/span><\/span> the pandemic <\/span><\/span>still <\/span><\/span>is <\/span><\/span>going on globally<\/span><\/span>. Therefore <\/span><\/span>more precise <\/span><\/span>economic <\/span><\/span>forecasts <\/span><\/span>are <\/span><\/span>currently impossible to prepare. <\/span><\/span>Fears <\/span><\/span>–<\/span><\/span> more exactly the \u201cnon-official fears\u201d <\/span><\/span>of a second corona wave <\/span><\/span>– <\/span><\/span>are still large in China <\/span><\/span>despite <\/span><\/span>the <\/span><\/span>currently <\/span><\/span>very <\/span><\/span>low<\/span><\/span> infection numbers <\/span><\/span>(<\/span><\/span>which certainly should be taken with a grain of salt<\/span><\/span>)<\/span><\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Altogether, n<\/span><\/span>either domestic nor foreign demand <\/span><\/span>are predictable<\/span><\/span> these d<\/span><\/span>ays, not even very roughly. <\/span><\/span>Totally regarded, i<\/span><\/span>t would have been worse <\/span><\/span>for China\u2019s political leaders <\/span><\/span>not <\/span><\/span>having been<\/span><\/span> able to meet<\/span><\/span> a publicly given <\/span><\/span>growth objective<\/span><\/span>. The <\/span><\/span>political leadership certainly would not <\/span><\/span>have <\/span><\/span>appreciated<\/span><\/span> s<\/span><\/span>uch a kind of disappointment<\/span><\/span>.<\/span><\/span> Thus, n<\/span><\/span>o goal for growth is <\/span><\/span>certainly <\/span><\/span>bette<\/span><\/span>r than taking the risk of being quite wrong later on.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Nevertheless<\/span><\/span>, the whole corona issue<\/span><\/span> shatters many expectations, <\/span><\/span>also<\/span><\/span> plans for the 100-year <\/span><\/span>anniversary of the foundation of<\/span><\/span> the<\/span><\/span> Communist Party of China <\/span><\/span>next year <\/span><\/span>which is <\/span><\/span>considered as an extremely important event. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

In the meanwhile, efforts for <\/span><\/span>achieving <\/span><\/span>a kind of statistic<\/span><\/span>ally visible recovery will go on despite current obstacles<\/span><\/span>. However, GDP numbers should be interpreted cautiously also in the forthcoming quarters. <\/span><\/span>Furthermore, t<\/span><\/span>here i<\/span><\/span>s no applicable estimate <\/span><\/span>when it comes to forecasts for the developmen<\/span><\/span>t of the central and the even more <\/span><\/span>burdening local government debt.<\/span><\/span> Bond markets will be<\/span><\/span> used to finance, for example, <\/span><\/span>planned <\/span><\/span>lower taxes an<\/span><\/span>d investments in infrastructure \u2013 issues that are not easy to handle.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

It is hard to believe that statistical accuracy and transparency <\/span><\/span>have increased during the corona crisis though C<\/span><\/span>hina had a good chance to do so <\/span><\/span>at this special <\/span><\/span>occasion <\/span><\/span>\u2013 as I have described several times before on this page. <\/span><\/span>Not <\/span><\/span>really s<\/span><\/span>urprisingly<\/span><\/span>,<\/span><\/span> the fact of only <\/span><\/span>few <\/span><\/span>new cases of daily <\/span><\/span>infections since several weeks ag<\/span><\/span>o raise<\/span><\/span>s<\/span><\/span> renewed <\/span><\/span>doubts <\/span><\/span>about the correctness of corona statistics<\/span><\/span>, particularly more recently with <\/span><\/span>only <\/span><\/span>single-digit <\/span><\/span>new <\/span><\/span>daily <\/span><\/span>cases in thi<\/span><\/span>s large country. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Anyway, i<\/span><\/span>t see<\/span><\/span><\/a>ms <\/span><\/span>obviou<\/span><\/span>s that China wants to exit <\/span><\/span>the <\/span><\/span>corona crisis<\/span><\/span> as soon as<\/span><\/span> possible <\/span><\/span>despite the – mainly locally – still existing fear<\/span><\/span>s<\/span><\/span> of a second corona w<\/span><\/span>ave, may be<\/span><\/span> stressed by some lockdowns in Northern China the other day.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Preparing for the <\/span><\/span>important<\/span><\/span> anniversary of 2021<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

There are China analyst<\/span><\/span>s<\/span><\/span> who believe that the abolition of the GDP growth objective for 2020 may be a first step to more openness and transparency i<\/span><\/span>n the Chinese economy. However<\/span><\/span>, I <\/span><\/span>myself <\/span><\/span>do not consider such a scenario <\/span><\/span>as a <\/span><\/span>potential development in the foreseeable future.<\/span><\/span> In my view<\/span><\/span>, <\/span><\/span>much more <\/span><\/span>visible <\/span><\/span>and reliable <\/span><\/span>evidence <\/span><\/span>is needed <\/span><\/span>about <\/span><\/span>such <\/span><\/span>potentially <\/span><\/span>changing positions<\/span><\/span>.<\/span><\/span> This can<\/span><\/span> – if happening at<\/span><\/span> some point in the future – <\/span><\/span>take years<\/span><\/span> from now<\/span><\/span>. During the<\/span><\/span> years <\/span><\/span>of waiting<\/span><\/span>, the tone of the Chinese political leaders <\/span><\/span>may change occasionally <\/span><\/span>– <\/span><\/span>but withou<\/span><\/span>t meaning predictable<\/span><\/span> policy changes.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Altogether, the Leitmotiv for<\/span><\/span> this year\u2019s N<\/span><\/span>PC is to demonstrate that C<\/span><\/span>hina now starts <\/span><\/span>to <\/span><\/span>return to <\/span><\/span>normal <\/span><\/span>in all respects <\/span><\/span>and that the Communist Party is in full control. The idea behind this is to pave a smooth way to the very important year of 2021 when the Communist Party will celebrate its 100<\/span><\/span>th <\/span><\/span>anniversary<\/span><\/span>.<\/span><\/span> The a<\/span><\/span>chievements of<\/span><\/span> the past century<\/span><\/span> \u201cmust\u201d be <\/span><\/span>presented without <\/span><\/span>stint<\/span><\/span> at the jubilee<\/span><\/span> celebrations next year<\/span><\/span> \u2013 whatever it takes.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Hubert Fromlet<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

*<\/span><\/span>Appendix: The entire speech of Prime Minister Li Keqiang at the NPC on May 22, 2020<\/span><\/span><\/h5>\n
https:\/\/news.cgtn.com\/news\/2020-05-22\/Full-text-Premier-Li-s-speech-at-the-third-session-of-the-13th-NPC-QHaP1FpB8k\/index.html<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/h5>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kina skippar tillv\u00e4xtm\u00e5let Brief summary in Swedish \/ Sammanfattning Den 22 maj inledde Kommunistpartiets Nationella Folkkongress – Kinas egen variant av parlament – sin \u00e5rliga sammankomst med representanter fr\u00e5n hela landet. Tv\u00e5 faktorer \u00e4r s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt speciellt anm\u00e4rkningsv\u00e4rda. F\u00f6r det f\u00f6rsta har det cirka 6-procentiga tillv\u00e4xtm\u00e5let f\u00f6r 2020 tagits bort helt och h\u00e5llet som […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13398],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nChina now without growth objective - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3023\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China now without growth objective - China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kina skippar tillv\u00e4xtm\u00e5let Brief summary in Swedish \/ Sammanfattning Den 22 maj inledde Kommunistpartiets Nationella Folkkongress – Kinas egen variant av parlament – sin \u00e5rliga sammankomst med representanter fr\u00e5n hela landet. Tv\u00e5 faktorer \u00e4r s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt speciellt anm\u00e4rkningsv\u00e4rda. F\u00f6r det f\u00f6rsta har det cirka 6-procentiga tillv\u00e4xtm\u00e5let f\u00f6r 2020 tagits bort helt och h\u00e5llet som […]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3023\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-05-25T08:00:19+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-05-25T08:22:09+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3023\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3023\",\"name\":\"China now without growth objective - China Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2020-05-25T08:00:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-05-25T08:22:09+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3023\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/\",\"name\":\"China Research\",\"description\":\"A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China \u2013 from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5\",\"name\":\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?author=174\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"China now without growth objective - China Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3023","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"China now without growth objective - China Research","og_description":"Kina skippar tillv\u00e4xtm\u00e5let Brief summary in Swedish \/ Sammanfattning Den 22 maj inledde Kommunistpartiets Nationella Folkkongress – Kinas egen variant av parlament – sin \u00e5rliga sammankomst med representanter fr\u00e5n hela landet. 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