{"id":3042,"date":"2020-06-25T08:12:09","date_gmt":"2020-06-25T07:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3042"},"modified":"2020-06-25T08:12:09","modified_gmt":"2020-06-25T07:12:09","slug":"unemployment-the-most-unusable-indicator-in-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3042","title":{"rendered":"Unemployment \u2013 the most unusable indicator in China?"},"content":{"rendered":"

————————————————-<\/p>\n

Arbetsl\u00f6sheten \u2013 Kinas minst anv\u00e4ndbara konjunkturindikator?<\/h2>\n

Brief summary \/ sammanfattning<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Kvaliteten i Kinas ekonomiska statistik har aldrig haft gott anseende bland flertalet utl\u00e4ndska Kinaforskare. Till\u00e4mpningen av vettiga tidsserier har alltid varit synnerligen begr\u00e4nsad. Den officiellt redovisade arbetsl\u00f6shetsstatistiken framst\u00e5r som den kanske minst anv\u00e4ndbara konjunkturindikatorn f\u00f6r internationella bed\u00f6mare. Arbetsl\u00f6shetsstatistiken \u00e4r helt enkelt inte tillr\u00e4ckligt omfattande.<\/p>\n

————————————————–<\/p>\n

After having dealt with Chinese official statistics during 30 years, I still have the concrete impression that the monthly, quarterly and annually published economic numbers never could give me a feeling of applicable and comfortable accuracy (e.g. in: Finance India. The Quarterly Journal of Indian Institute of Finance, ISSN 0970-3772, Vol. 25, no 4, s. 1189-1207). Too many statistical inconsistencies could be found more or less regularly over the years. Other (academic) economists came to the same conclusion.<\/p>\n

Referring to the corona virus, I pointed some months ago at the new opportunity for the official China to create better transparency – and by a new policy of improved openness to achieve an upgrading of its international reputation (see my article here on chinaresearch.se from April 14, 2020). And I strongly argued for the view that China itself could have benefited from such a policy change.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, China did not want to go for such a new direction. This also means that unemployment numbers will continue to be the same conundrum as they have been in the past decades.<\/p>\n

Unemployment statistics covers only a limited part of the economy<\/strong><\/p>\n

Two different measurements of unemployment rates can quite easily be found in official statistics, one for 31 metropolitan cities and one for total urban unemployment http:\/\/data.stats.gov.cn\/english\/easyquery.htm?cn=A01<\/a>. But also in this blog\u2019s limited context show up a number of questions without good possible answers, quoting here some of them.<\/p>\n

\u00a4 Rural unemployment is not included in the official – survey-based – unemployment numbers. Is this a curable major shortcoming?<\/p>\n

\u00a4 There is no good estimate about migrant workers working occasionally in the cities, in good times according to the authorities up to 300 million people \u2013 and now may be half of it. One has to wonder where these newly unemployed people have gone in reality and in statistics?<\/p>\n

\u00a4 Also officially confirmed, migrant workers accounted last year for roughly one third of the Chinese labor force. Based on this number, it puzzles quite a lot that total urban unemployment in the 31 major cities merely rose from 5.3 % in July 2019 to 5.9 % in April 2020.<\/p>\n

No clear answers to be expected<\/strong><\/p>\n

Increasing unemployment may be the most crucial issue for China\u2019s leadership, both politically and socially (which is interconnected). For this reason, promising opening up in unemployment communication will not take room in the foreseeable future \u2013 unless the economy unexpectedly will face an explosive and sustainably strong recovery.<\/p>\n

Who believes in such a development?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong>
\n<\/em>Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
\nEditorial board<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Back to Start Page<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

————————————————- Arbetsl\u00f6sheten \u2013 Kinas minst anv\u00e4ndbara konjunkturindikator? Brief summary \/ sammanfattning Kvaliteten i Kinas ekonomiska statistik har aldrig haft gott anseende bland flertalet utl\u00e4ndska Kinaforskare. Till\u00e4mpningen av vettiga tidsserier har alltid varit synnerligen begr\u00e4nsad. Den officiellt redovisade arbetsl\u00f6shetsstatistiken framst\u00e5r som den kanske minst anv\u00e4ndbara konjunkturindikatorn f\u00f6r internationella bed\u00f6mare. Arbetsl\u00f6shetsstatistiken \u00e4r helt enkelt inte tillr\u00e4ckligt omfattande. 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