{"id":3097,"date":"2020-11-16T08:46:36","date_gmt":"2020-11-16T07:46:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3097"},"modified":"2020-11-16T10:30:05","modified_gmt":"2020-11-16T09:30:05","slug":"rcep-benefiting-from-america-first","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3097","title":{"rendered":"RCEP – benefiting from \u201cAmerica first\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Only yesterday – on October 15 \u2013 the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement finally was signed after eight years of complicated negotiations, altogether over 30 rounds. https:\/\/asean.org\/storage\/2020\/11\/Summary-of-the-RCEP-Agreement.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

These negotiations included the ten already co-operating ASEAN trading partners: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, The Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam and the five \u201cdeal newcomers\u201d of China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. These countries amount to as much as 2.2 billion people or around 30 percent of the global population and GDP.<\/p>\n

Without more detailed information right now one may conclude that RCEP \u2013 after all national ratifications \u2013 will be the starting point for the largest free trade zone in the world. Initially, President Obama and the U.S. wanted to be part of the negotiations as well. This plan was shattered by President Trump and his \u201cAmerica first\u201d policy; certainly not a good idea \u2013 not even for the U.S. itself.<\/p>\n

Comments \u2013 the U.S. and the EU in a weakened position (Sweden included)\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a4 Right now: China the main winner \u2013 the U.S. and the EU the main losers.
\n<\/em>No further explanation is needed to underline that China clearly sticks out as the most powerful economic player of the 15 RCEP countries \u2013 in regions geographically not too far away and, consequently, already China\u2019s main trading partners when summarizing the whole RCEP area. The objective of the trade agreement is to include over 90 percent of all traded goods for free trade and roughly two thirds of all cross-border traded services according to the following official source: https:\/\/www.mti.gov.sg\/-\/media\/MTI\/Newsroom\/Press-Releases\/2020\/11\/Press-Release-on-the-Regional-Comprehensive-Economic-Partnership-Signing.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n

However, some applicable time horizon cannot be found in available documents. Usually, it takes quite some years until major trade agreements have come into place completely.<\/p>\n

\u00a4 Really \u201cfait accompli\u201d?
\n<\/em>Currently, I do not see toughly pressing obstacles for the introduction and \u2013 later on – continuation of the RCEP. However, new events sometimes change things. We still do not know about the speed of the complete abolition of all the different tariffs \u2013 may be much more slowly than many experts assume today.<\/p>\n

Furthermore: Will President (Elect) Biden work for an American joining later on which would include new negotiations? We never know. But we probably can expect that Biden will be looking for (somewhat) more relaxed relations to China \u2013whatever this may lead to.<\/p>\n

\u00a4 The EU needs much more cross-border co-operation in Asia \u2013 but not with India or<\/u> China.
\n<\/em>The EU\u2019s trade with the expanding 14 RCEP states (China excl) is, of course, much more limited than China\u2019s. In my view, only a much more co-operative EU will have a chance of really successfully being able to compete with China in the other RCEP countries.<\/p>\n

However, it would be wrong to see India as an alternative to the RCEP. The answer can only be RCEP and <\/em>India which has been suggested. Besides, India has been invited again to join the RCEP. This is not in line with current Indian ambitions \u2013 but who knows what will happen in 10 years or so?<\/p>\n

\u00a4\u00a0 Return to a multilateral trade treaty \u2013 indeed good news.
\n<\/em>In recent decades China and the U.S. have developed more and more into promoters of bilateral trade agreements. Theory and research, however, prefer clearly multinational trade deals.<\/p>\n

The RCEP finally means a step into the right policy direction!<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong>
\n<\/em>Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
\nEditorial board<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Back to Start Page<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Only yesterday – on October 15 \u2013 the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement finally was signed after eight years of complicated negotiations, altogether over 30 rounds. https:\/\/asean.org\/storage\/2020\/11\/Summary-of-the-RCEP-Agreement.pdf These negotiations included the ten already co-operating ASEAN trading partners: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, The Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam and the five \u201cdeal newcomers\u201d […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13624,13398,10503,13620],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asia","category-china-2","category-other-emerging-markets","category-previous-articles"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nRCEP - benefiting from \u201cAmerica first\u201d - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3097\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"RCEP - 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