{"id":3479,"date":"2024-01-17T13:26:51","date_gmt":"2024-01-17T12:26:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3479"},"modified":"2024-01-17T14:00:56","modified_gmt":"2024-01-17T13:00:56","slug":"chinas-mysterious-gdp-numbers-for-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3479","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s mysterious GDP numbers for 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Those who followed my analysis of Chinese statistics in the past decade or even earlier have probably recognized that I regularly discussed insufficient transparency and quality of Chinese economic statistics (see, for example, <a href=\"https:\/\/publications.bof.fi\/bitstream\/handle\/10024\/44981\/172270.pdf;jsessionid=F1A3B66E65EB4447FC419C2922BE6B7A?sequence=1\">https:\/\/publications.bof.fi\/bitstream\/handle\/10024\/44981\/172270.pdf;jsessionid=F1A3B66E65EB4447FC419C2922BE6B7A?sequence=1<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I also wondered frequently after how long time Western analysts really would be able to realize positive statistical changes once the quality of Chinese statistics finally indeed has started to improve &#8211; and for how many more years historical doubts could persist in the case of such a positively changing statistical environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>GDP growth in 2023 by 5.2 percent &#8211; as \u201cwanted\u201d?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Chinese GDP grew 5.2 percent compared to 2022. This new number should not be too surprising theoretically after the disastrous covid(-policy) year of 2022 and the very limited GDP growth of 3 percent during the same year. However, when considering the still ongoing problems in the real estate sector, still relatively reluctant consumers and modest global demand, 5.2 percent may appear somewhat high. Can we speak about a politically determined growth number?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sure, I cannot give a safe answer on this conundrum. No one&nbsp; outside the most powerful political circles in China can or is allowed to do so. But it should not be overlooked that 5.2 percent is suspiciously close to the official growth target of 5 percent. This result reminds of the exact pre-corona predictability when quarterly GDP changes for quite some time more or less exactly were in line with the needs of meeting the annual GDP objective. Has China now come back to this previous \u201cpolicy of fine-tuning\u201c?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This question leads automatically to the theory that Chinese GDP growth in reality could have been less than 5.2 percent. May be even at around 3 percent? Such a number would have been, of course, very inconvenient for President Xi Jinping (who also wants to appear as a successful leader of China in BRICS strategies and in the global South). At home, in China, Xi is already overwhelmingly praised, for example right now by the National Bureau of Statistics &#8211; as an introduction to the GDP statistics for 2023with the following words:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIn 2023, faced with complex and grave international environment as well as arduous tasks to advance reform, promote development and maintain stability at home, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully applied the new development philosophy on all fronts, accelerated efforts to foster a new pattern of development, comprehensively deepened reform and opening up, strengthened macro regulation, and redoubled efforts to expand domestic demand, optimize structure, boost confidence and prevent and defuse risks\u2026\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, if the official GDP growth rate of 5.2 percent was exaggerated, the outlook for the global economy may be even more risky this year. An important hint may be given at the annual National People\u2019s Congress by the announcement of the GDP-growth target for 2024 in early March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong>: There is every reason to keep informed as well as possible about Chinese developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lnu.se\/api\/media\/12178-fw350fh461cy28cw350ch350\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:94px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong>Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University<br><a href=\"..\/editorial-board\/\">Editorial board<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\">Back to Start Page<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Those who followed my analysis of Chinese statistics in the past decade or even earlier have probably recognized that I regularly discussed insufficient transparency and quality of Chinese economic statistics (see, for example, https:\/\/publications.bof.fi\/bitstream\/handle\/10024\/44981\/172270.pdf;jsessionid=F1A3B66E65EB4447FC419C2922BE6B7A?sequence=1). I also wondered frequently after how long time Western analysts really would be able to realize positive statistical changes once the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":126,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13398],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>China\u2019s mysterious GDP numbers for 2023 - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3479\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s mysterious GDP numbers for 2023 - China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Those who followed my analysis of Chinese statistics in the past decade or even earlier have probably recognized that I regularly discussed insufficient transparency and quality of Chinese economic statistics (see, for example, https:\/\/publications.bof.fi\/bitstream\/handle\/10024\/44981\/172270.pdf;jsessionid=F1A3B66E65EB4447FC419C2922BE6B7A?sequence=1). I also wondered frequently after how long time Western analysts really would be able to realize positive statistical changes once the [&hellip;]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3479\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-01-17T12:26:51+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-01-17T13:00:56+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/lnu.se\/api\/media\/12178-fw350fh461cy28cw350ch350\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3479\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3479\",\"name\":\"China\u2019s mysterious GDP numbers for 2023 - China Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2024-01-17T12:26:51+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-01-17T13:00:56+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/3c3b67b85e96d1cc89d09dda3a189b38\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3479\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/\",\"name\":\"China Research\",\"description\":\"A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China  \u2013                                          from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/3c3b67b85e96d1cc89d09dda3a189b38\",\"name\":\"Hubert Fromlet\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?author=126\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"China\u2019s mysterious GDP numbers for 2023 - China Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3479","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"China\u2019s mysterious GDP numbers for 2023 - China Research","og_description":"Those who followed my analysis of Chinese statistics in the past decade or even earlier have probably recognized that I regularly discussed insufficient transparency and quality of Chinese economic statistics (see, for example, https:\/\/publications.bof.fi\/bitstream\/handle\/10024\/44981\/172270.pdf;jsessionid=F1A3B66E65EB4447FC419C2922BE6B7A?sequence=1). 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