{"id":3710,"date":"2025-10-03T08:21:21","date_gmt":"2025-10-03T07:21:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3710"},"modified":"2025-10-03T09:11:52","modified_gmt":"2025-10-03T08:11:52","slug":"trumps-tariffs-weaken-asian-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3710","title":{"rendered":"Trump\u2019s tariffs weaken Asian growth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It is not a new analytical conclusion that the absurd tariffs of President Trump also damage emerging markets though with different intensity from country to country. This harming American policy certainly also affects Asian countries which recently has been confirmed by the updated forecast of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The weakening outlook for the Asian member countries of the ADB also means a limited setback for Western corporations in their attempt to diversify their export markets as a reaction on the deteriorating conditions on U.S. markets. However, Asian growth performance will remain superior to the rest of the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Negative growth effects from tariffs but partly offset by domestic policy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ADB summarizes its revised forecast from September 2025 as follows: \u201c<strong>Developing Asia\u2019s growth forecasts are trimmed to 4.8% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, down by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points from April.<\/strong>&nbsp;The revisions reflect offsetting factors. The updated trade agreements and tariffs led to a broad shift toward higher US tariffs, which will weigh on the region\u2019s exports and growth. However, fiscal and monetary policy responses are expected to cushion the impact\u2026\u201d (see <a href=\"https:\/\/www.adb.org\/outlook\/editions\/september-2025\">https:\/\/www.adb.org\/outlook\/editions\/september-2025<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It also should be observed that China still has not achieved a deal with the Trump administration. This means a major shortcoming or uncertainty in the ADB forecast -despite the fact that many Asian countries indeed have a trade agreement with the U.S. since August 1. But who knows which trade deal can be regarded as stable?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As far as China is concerned, the ADB explains that GDP forecasts for the People\u2019s Republic of <strong>China<\/strong> (PRC) have been kept unchanged due to domestic growth support. At the same time, the ADB still mentions concerns about China\u2019s \u201ccontinued weakness in the property market\u201d. My own interpretation of the ADB view on the PRC means continuing concerns, reflected by the decelerating GDP-growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 (4.7 and 4.3 percent).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>India<\/strong> has to accept some downward revision of its growth as well but remains the fastest (major) economy in Asia (expected GDP growth: 6.5 percent in both 2025 and 2026).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unfortunately, <strong>South East Asia <\/strong>will have to face the most negative growth impact in 2026 from Trump\u2019s trade restrictions. <em>Indonesia <\/em>(GDP +5.0 in the September forecast for 2026, down from +5.1 percent in April)is still considered to remain on track \u2013 but countries such as the Philippines (to +5.7 from +6.1 percent), <em>Thailand <\/em>(to +1.6 from +2.9 percent),<em> Vietnam (<\/em>to +6.0 from +6.5 percent) and <em>Malaysia <\/em>(to +4.2 from 4.8 percent) lose quite some momentum &#8211; mainly due to American tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Conclusion: <\/strong>American protectionism certainly affects Asia negatively as a whole \u2013 but certain countries more than others. However, altogether Asia will most probably remain the fastest growing region or continent also in the future &#8211; as a message to the corporate sector, at least as long as China can avoid a (financial) meltdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lnu.se\/api\/media\/12178-fw350fh461cy28cw350ch350\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:94px;height:auto\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong> <br>Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It is not a new analytical conclusion that the absurd tariffs of President Trump also damage emerging markets though with different intensity from country to country. This harming American policy certainly also affects Asian countries which recently has been confirmed by the updated forecast of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The weakening outlook for the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":126,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13624,13398],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asia","category-china-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Trump\u2019s tariffs weaken Asian growth - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3710\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump\u2019s tariffs weaken Asian growth - China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It is not a new analytical conclusion that the absurd tariffs of President Trump also damage emerging markets though with different intensity from country to country. This harming American policy certainly also affects Asian countries which recently has been confirmed by the updated forecast of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The weakening outlook for the [&hellip;]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3710\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-10-03T07:21:21+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-03T08:11:52+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/lnu.se\/api\/media\/12178-fw350fh461cy28cw350ch350\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3710\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3710\",\"name\":\"Trump\u2019s tariffs weaken Asian growth - China Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-10-03T07:21:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-03T08:11:52+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/3c3b67b85e96d1cc89d09dda3a189b38\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3710\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/\",\"name\":\"China Research\",\"description\":\"A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China  \u2013                                          from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/3c3b67b85e96d1cc89d09dda3a189b38\",\"name\":\"Hubert Fromlet\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?author=126\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Trump\u2019s tariffs weaken Asian growth - China Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=3710","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Trump\u2019s tariffs weaken Asian growth - China Research","og_description":"It is not a new analytical conclusion that the absurd tariffs of President Trump also damage emerging markets though with different intensity from country to country. 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