{"id":494,"date":"2012-06-05T10:37:41","date_gmt":"2012-06-05T09:37:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=494"},"modified":"2018-09-13T09:58:52","modified_gmt":"2018-09-13T08:58:52","slug":"our-overheating-indicator-falls-to-4-9-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=494","title":{"rendered":"Our Overheating Indicator Falls to 4.9"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Summary<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Our so-called <strong>overheating indicator<\/strong> for China (right now rather a temperature indicator) fell in May 2012 to <strong>4.9 <\/strong>from 5.9 in December 2011 (10=extremely overheated).<br \/>\nAround 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated once again in the survey.<\/li>\n<li><strong>GDP forecasts<\/strong> by the China panel (average,%): 2012: <strong>7.3<\/strong>, 2012 q4: <strong>7.4<\/strong>, 2013: <strong>8.3<\/strong> %.<br \/>\nThe short-term outlook for 2012 is more modest than previously predicted &#8211; but still not too worrisome.<br \/>\nThe new forecast for 2013 is roughly unchanged compared to the last one.<\/li>\n<li>90 % of the panelists predict that the currency <strong>renminbi <\/strong>(RMB) in 2012 will be stable or appreciate by just 1-5 percent.<\/li>\n<li>82 % of the panelists think that there is still a dangerous <strong>price bubble<\/strong> on the <strong>real estate market <\/strong>(Dec 2011: 92 %).<\/li>\n<li>The panel\u2019s grading of confidence in the Chinese economy looks as follows:<br \/>\n(5=very high confidence; 1=very low confidence)<br \/>\n3 years from now: 3.5 5 years from now: 3.0 10 years from now: 2.8<\/li>\n<li>The majority of LNU\u2019s China panelists predicts that it will take up to 5-10 years to recognize a clearly visible shift to a more consumption-oriented growth model. It is not a short-term issue.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/files\/2012\/06\/GDP.gif\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-456\" src=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/files\/2012\/06\/GDP.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"704\" \/><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbs.hik.se\/resurser\/dokument\/fromlet\/China_Panel_May2012.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Read the full China Panel No 14, 2012 report<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/image.lnu.se\/image.ashx?id=117818&amp;w=110\" alt=\"\" width=\"110\" height=\"136\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong><em><br \/>\n<\/em>Professor of International Economics<br \/>\n<a href=\"..\/editorial-board\/\">Editorial board<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\">Back to Start Page<\/a><em><br \/>\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Our so-called overheating indicator for China (right now rather a temperature indicator) fell in May 2012 to 4.9 from 5.9 in December 2011 (10=extremely overheated). Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated once again in the survey. GDP forecasts by the China panel (average,%): 2012: 7.3, 2012 q4: 7.4, 2013: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":174,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13398,18949],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-2","category-china-panel-survey"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Our Overheating Indicator Falls to 4.9 - China Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=494\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Our Overheating Indicator Falls to 4.9 - China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary Our so-called overheating indicator for China (right now rather a temperature indicator) fell in May 2012 to 4.9 from 5.9 in December 2011 (10=extremely overheated). Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated once again in the survey. GDP forecasts by the China panel (average,%): 2012: 7.3, 2012 q4: 7.4, 2013: [&hellip;]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=494\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"China Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-06-05T09:37:41+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-09-13T08:58:52+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/files\/2012\/06\/GDP.gif\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=494\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=494\",\"name\":\"Our Overheating Indicator Falls to 4.9 - China Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-06-05T09:37:41+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-09-13T08:58:52+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=494\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/\",\"name\":\"China Research\",\"description\":\"A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China  \u2013                                          from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5\",\"name\":\"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?author=174\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Our Overheating Indicator Falls to 4.9 - China Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=494","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Our Overheating Indicator Falls to 4.9 - China Research","og_description":"Summary Our so-called overheating indicator for China (right now rather a temperature indicator) fell in May 2012 to 4.9 from 5.9 in December 2011 (10=extremely overheated). Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated once again in the survey. GDP forecasts by the China panel (average,%): 2012: 7.3, 2012 q4: 7.4, 2013: [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=494","og_site_name":"China Research","article_published_time":"2012-06-05T09:37:41+00:00","article_modified_time":"2018-09-13T08:58:52+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/files\/2012\/06\/GDP.gif"}],"author":"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=494","url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=494","name":"Our Overheating Indicator Falls to 4.9 - China Research","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website"},"datePublished":"2012-06-05T09:37:41+00:00","dateModified":"2018-09-13T08:58:52+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=494"]}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#website","url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/","name":"China Research","description":"A discussion forum on emerging markets, mainly China  \u2013                                          from a macro, micro, institutional and corporate angle.","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/#\/schema\/person\/7dbc3e79d44dfa0d6bb4e1f625ad2ae5","name":"Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar","url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?author=174"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/174"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=494"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/494\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2603,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/494\/revisions\/2603"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}