{"id":782,"date":"2013-01-09T10:13:14","date_gmt":"2013-01-09T09:13:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=782"},"modified":"2018-09-13T09:56:59","modified_gmt":"2018-09-13T08:56:59","slug":"lnus-china-panel-survey-no-15-december-2012-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=782","title":{"rendered":"LNU\u2019s China Panel Survey No 15 \u2013 December 2012:"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cOur \u201coverheating indicator\u201d for China rises to 6.5 – slightly improved outlook for 2013 and 2014\u201c<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a4 Our so-called overheating indicator for China – <\/strong>derived from a survey with China specialists all over the globe – gained some temperature in December compared to May 2012 (6.5<\/strong>; May:2012: 4.9; 1-10; 10=extremely overheated). The current GDP-growth temperature does not indicate any overheating in the general economy.<\/p>\n

\u00a4 GDP forecasts for China <\/strong>(average, percent) 2012: 7.3 2013: 7.8 2014: 8.0
\nFor both 2013 and 2014, GDP predictions are characterized by downward biases – though on a somewhat more encouraging trend. I tend to be slightly more optimistic.<\/p>\n

\u00a4 One of the panel\u2019s assumptions for Chinese growth forecasts is that around two thirds of our panel members count on a gradual but relatively modest recovery in 2013\/2014 in the OECD area as a whole<\/strong>. Approximately, one third believes in a continued weak and disappointing performance – on average – of the entire OECD block. China\u2019s growth<\/strong> sensitivity <\/strong>that is related to the European crisis is considered to be at 5.6 (scale 1-10; 1=no sensitivity at all) which is not negligible.<\/p>\n

\u00a4 Three fourths of the panelists predict that the Chinese currency renminbi<\/strong> (RMB) will appreciate slightly during 2013 (by 1-5 percent). All the other remaining panelists assume the RMB to remain more or less stable.<\/p>\n

\u00a4 100 percent of the panelists think that there is still a dangerous price bubble<\/strong> on the real estate market. When it comes to the Chinese stock market, however, our China experts seem to be markedly less concerned about potential bubble risks.<\/p>\n

Read the full article<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong>
\n<\/em>Professor of International Economics
\nEditorial board<\/a><\/p>\n

Back to Start Page<\/a>
\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cOur \u201coverheating indicator\u201d for China rises to 6.5 – slightly improved outlook for 2013 and 2014\u201c \u00a4 Our so-called overheating indicator for China – derived from a survey with China specialists all over the globe – gained some temperature in December compared to May 2012 (6.5; May:2012: 4.9; 1-10; 10=extremely overheated). 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