{"id":856,"date":"2013-02-06T15:54:23","date_gmt":"2013-02-06T14:54:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=856"},"modified":"2013-02-06T15:58:53","modified_gmt":"2013-02-06T14:58:53","slug":"china-economic-discussions-move-forward-but-what-about-reality-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/?p=856","title":{"rendered":"China: Economic Discussions Move Forward \u2013 but what about Reality?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Developments in China get increasingly interesting for economists, other analysts, and – certainly – for many corporate decision-makers. This can particularly be said about:<\/p>\n

– the more immediate economic development,<\/p>\n

– economic reports and discussions, and<\/p>\n

– the future economic policy of the new political leaders.<\/p>\n

What concerns the first point,<\/em> it seems to become increasingly probable that China is on its way to enter a period of somewhat accelerating rate of GDP growth. This was also indicated by Linnaeus University\u2019s China Survey Panel in December. However, skepticism about Chinese GDP numbers and other statistics remains in place. Regular readers of this blog are familiar with the issue.<\/p>\n

The second point <\/em>to be mentioned is the trend of economic reports and discussions. Here, I can see continuous progress. Openness is improving, particularly in the past few years. After having followed economic reporting on China during at least two decades, current economic discussions seem to be on a very different – and more frank – level compared to 5-10 years ago (as long as it remains a pure issue of economics). The following headlines – which I just picked in the past two weeks – would probably have been distant from publication ten years ago (sources for the headlines: different Chinese newspapers – but the mentioned improvements have to be seen in Chinese relative terms, not measured according to our Western standards):<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00a4\u201c<\/em>UK breakup from EU may hurt  China trade\u201d:<\/td>\nChina\u2019s concern about this risk is obvious.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a4\u201c<\/em>China must strive to improve WTO relations\u201d:<\/td>\nChina\u2019s disputes with WTO should decrease.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a4\u201cChina\u2019s fiscal deficit may hit new high\u201d:<\/td>\na cautious warning signal about public debt.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a4\u201cThe bane of private consumption\u201d:<\/td>\nabout the difficulties of changing the growth model.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a4\u201cFull RMB convertibility ruled out\u201d:<\/td>\nindicating that full RMB convertibility is far away.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a4\u201cDomestic lenders need global outlook\u201d:<\/td>\n<\/em>pointing at an important management issue.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a4\u201cChina\u2019s Q4 property loans accelerate\u201d:<\/td>\ncould be a hidden warning signal.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a4\u201cTougher measures on corruption\u201d:<\/td>\none of China\u2019s most frequently discussed topics.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a4\u201cFood struggle may threaten urbanization\u201d:<\/td>\nthe food issue in another critical perspective.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a4\u201cProduct quality improved in 2012\u201d:<\/td>\nproduct quality – a major future challenge.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a4\u201cManufacturing turns youth off\u201d:<\/td>\na topic that starts to reach China.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a4\u201cChinese firms willing to do more public good\u201d:<\/td>\naiming at state-owned enterprises (SMEs).<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The third point <\/em>is about the future economic policy of China\u2019s new political leaders. The National People\u2019s Congress (NPC) in March will certainly give hints on economic policy priorities. Such policy declarations are, however, usually without concrete timeframes – or held very generally. Consequently, one should not take these official ambitions for the future too verbally in all respects, even if they may indicate the road on which China\u2019s new main political decision-makers wish<\/em> to move forward.<\/p>\n

Moving forward on a certain road does not say too much about real ambitions, speed and sustainability of the plans. This kind of more precise and applicable planning won\u2019t be given already next month. It may be added as an example and little reminder that China\u2019s already some years ago envisaged the transition to a more consumption-oriented economy. This strategy still remains invisible in reality. Rather the opposite is true when we look at the latest statistics – and probably in 2013 as well. Chinese reality remains many times very harsh – despite all progress we\u2019ve seen in the past decade in quite some important economic areas.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/strong>
\n<\/em>Professor of International Economics
\nEditorial board<\/a><\/p>\n

Back to Start Page<\/a>
\n<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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