China Panel Survey No 14, May 2012:“Our overheating indicator falls to 4.9 – the lowest number since spring 2009”
1 juni, 2012
Summary
- Our so-called overheating indicator (right now rather a temperature indicator) fell in May 2012 to 4.9 from 5.9 in December 2011 (10=extremely overheated). Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated once again in the survey.
- GDP forecasts by the China panel (average,%): 2012: 7.3, 2012 q4: 7.4, 2013: 8.3 %. The short-term outlook for 2012 is more modest than previously predicted – but still not too worrisome. The new forecast for 2013 is roughly unchanged compared to the last one.
- 90 % of the panelists predict that the currency renminbi (RMB) in 2012 will be stable or appreciate by just 1-5 percent.
- 82 % of the panelists think that there is still a dangerous price bubble on the real estate market (Dec 2011: 92 %).
- The panel’s grading of confidence in the Chinese economy looks as follows:
(5=very high confidence; 1=very low confidence)
3 years from now: 3.5 5 years from now: 3.0 10 years from now: 2.8 - The majority of LNU’s China panelists predicts that it will take up to 5-10 years to recognize a clearly visible shift to a more consumption-oriented growth model. It is not a short-term issue.
