China Panel No 13, 2011: Decrease of our overheating indicator in December – and (somewhat) increasing concerns for 2012
21 december, 2011
Summary
- Our so-called overheating indicator declined in December to 5.9 from 7.3 in May. This is a more or less expected downturn (our main headline from May 2011: ”Some cooling down seems to become reality”). Almost 25 China experts from Asia, the U.S and Europe came together for this survey.
- GDP forecasts (%, average): 2011: 9.2; 2012: 8.3; 2012q4: 7.8; 2013: 8.0
- 62 percent of the panelists foresee that the currency RMB will see only a slight appreciation – up to 5 percent – vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar in 2012 – probably motivated by tougher conditions for exports.
- 92 percent of the panelists still conclude that there is a dangerous bubble on the real estate market (May 2011: 100 percent). Concerns about the Chinese stock market are now more limited.
- The panel’s grading of confidence in the Chinese economy looks as follows:
(5 = very high confidence; 1 = very low confidence)
3 years from now: 3.7 5 years from now: 3.4 10 years from now: 3.0
- Some other grading (10 = very high/good; 1 = very low/poor):
Institutions: 4.9 (2010: 4.5) Statistics: 4.8 (2010: 4.2) Accounting: 4.6 (2010: )
Transparency…in economic policy: 3.4 (2010: 2.8 )… in financial markets: 3.3 (2010: 3.6)
