Den japanska tragedin – ekonomiska prognoser är just nu meningslösa – The Japanese tragedy: forget about economic forecasts
4 april, 2011
In the past weeks, I have been reading dozens of forecasts on the Japanese economy after the tsunami and the nuclear tragedy. Scientifically, such a kind of forecast never can make sense because of the fact that important variables cannot be estimated and quantified.
The other argument against all these judgments on the economic future of Japan is ethically oriented. I cannot find it appropriate to express the Japanese catastrophe in GDP numbers at this very moment.
If you want to know more on this issue, you can read my article in “Dagens Industri” from March 17 and an interview with me in “Affärsvärlden” from March 23 (both in Swedish).
http://di.se/Artiklar/2011/3/17/230487/Debatt-Ratinginstituten-borde-lamna-Japan-i-fred/