Vietnam idag – ett läroboksexempel på obalanserad ekonomi ; Vietnam – an illuminating example of poor macroeconomic balance
16 februari, 2011
Sammanfattning
Det har diskuterats på senare tid i vad mån finanskrisen och globaliseringen medfört att gamla ekonomiska principer och samband satts ur spel. I vissa avseenden är det nog så, till exempel inom delar av området ”finance”. Däremot är det uppenbart att välkända makroekonomiska obalanser avseende exempelvis statsfinanser och bytesbalans samt hög inflation och en enorm kreditbubbla räcker till för försatta ett land i kris, idag som igår. Dylika fundamentala obalanser har beskrivits i läroböckerna i årtionden. Vietnam är det senaste landet med en sådan negativ utveckling – ett relativt stort land som under de senaste åren till och med proklamerats som ett slags ”little China”. Allmänt kan sägas att förbättrad makroekonomisk balans i länder med svag makroekonomisk struktur förr eller senare erfordrar åtstramningar och uppoffringar. ”Emerging markets” är m a o inte självgående. De måste också åstadkomma en ständigt balanssökande ekonomisk politik – precis som i vår del av världen.
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The question whether (certain) macroeconomic principles and conclusions have been changing since the rapid acceleration of globalization and the financial crisis has been a topic at a number of conferences and in academic papers in the past two years. Certain changes of traditional fundamentals may have occurred to some extent , particularly on the macrofinancial level.
But let’s have a test:
What do you think about the following example from an Asian country – is it a matter of concern ?
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GDP 2010: growing by around 6 ½ percent
Current account deficit 2010: around 7 percent of GDP
Budget deficit 2010: around 6 percent of GDP
Inflation Jan 2011: 12.2 percent
Excessive credit boom: yes
High share of foreign loans: yes
Decreasing currency reserves: yes
Recent downgrading by rating agency: yes
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Studies of statistics like the above-mentioned are every fall part of my course in emerging market economics at Linnaeus University. When analyzing a statistical framework with numbers and trends that are similar to the above-mentioned from Vietnam, most students usually get quite concerned and forecast that certain political reactions like credit restrictions, fiscal austerity or a substantial weakening of the currency should/will take place.
Concerns like the ones mentioned by the students, however, were not raised at the Vietnamese Communist Party’s Congress only a couple of weeks ago when everything seemed to be on the right track, according to the Vietnamese political leadership.
But only some weeks later, Vietnam had to devalue its exchange rate which fell immediately from 18930 to 20693 dong against the U.S.dollar. The devaluation was a logical consequence of all the imbalances in the Vietnamese economy. However, I could not find news about effective measures to improve the structural problems of the Vietnamese economy. Thus, further crises and weakening of the currency should be on the cards in the future – unless there will be a re-thinking of economic policy, by moving from GDP growth at any price to economic growth that is in line with improvements of economic fundamentals.
The Vietnamese examples shows very well that “old” macroeconomic principles and textbooks many times still are valid – and that emerging economies not automatically grow and become strong tigers.