China Survey No 11 – October 2010 : ”Some cooling off seems to be in the cards!
26 oktober, 2010
Summary
- Our so-called overheating indicator (or index for GDP-growth temperature) rose in October to 7.1 compared to 6.4 in February this year (10=extremely overheated). Around 25 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated again in this survey.
- GDP forecasts (average): 2010: 9.7 %; 2011: 8.9 %; 2011q4: 9.0 %; 2012: 8.9 %.
The forecasts have a slight downward bias for 2011 and a larger one for 2012. This is a signal that should be followed up on a regular basis. - The main contribution to GDP growth during the forecasting period is expected to come from (ranked):
No 1: investment
No 2: consumption
No 3: net exports. - 63% of the panelists predict that the RMB will have a slight appreciation against the U.S.dollar in 2011 (up to 5%) and 32% a more visible one (by more than 5%). The latter share has been growing sharply since our last survey.
- 95% of the panelists think that there still exists a dangerous price bubble on the real estate market (Feb 2010: 78 %). This is a noticeable change to the worse.
- The panel’s grading of confidence in the Chinese economy looks as follows
(10=best grading; 1=very low):
3 years from now: 3.5 5 years from now: 3.0 10 years from now: 2.9 - Some Chinese areas that have received their grading again, October 2010
(10=best grading; 1=lowest grading):
Trust in statistics: 4.4
Trust in corporate accounting: 4.2
Institutional framework: 4.4
Transparency in economic policy: 4.0
Transparency on financial markets: 3.6
