Our “temperature indicator” for China falls to 5.4 – the growth outlook for 2014 remains moderate
27 juni, 2013
Summary
¤ Our so-called “temperature indicator” for the Chinese economy declined in June to 5.4 compared to 6.5 in December 2012 (10=extremely overheated). This is one of the lowest numbers since the start of this China indicator almost ten years ago. Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated once again in the survey.
¤ The panel’s GDP projections (average):
2013: 7.6 2013q4: 7.8 2014: 7.5 2014q4: 7.3
Has China landed in a 7.5% GDP-growth trap. Or is it still a cyclical downturn?
¤ 92 percent of the panelists think that China will appreciate its currency by 5 percent or less in the forthcoming four quarters.
¤ 92 percent of our China experts believe that the real estate market is still threatened by a massive bubble.
¤ Some institutional aspects (gradings 1-10; 10=very good):
– trust in Chinese economic statistics: 4.3 trust in Chinese corporate accounting: 3.3
– the total institutional framework: 2.8 transparency of financial markets: 3.4
¤ The obviously preferred reform areas by the new Chinese political leadership:
1. Financial sector/Marketization in other areas 2. Social improvements 3. New growth model
