Baltic Business Research

Hubert Fromlet diskuterar den svenska och internationella ekonomin

“Megatrends in North-West Europe”

23 november, 2012

Views presented by professor Hubert Fromlet, Linnaeus University, at the North-West Conference on November 23, 2012 / Hamburg Chamber of Commerce

Summary
Megatrend is a big word. China’s entry in the global economy and the increasing demand for commodities are real megatrends. Thus, most megatrends in North-West Europe have be related to global megatrends.

However, important other trends will be (increasingly) recognized in North-West Europe in the forthcoming years. Having a particular watch on Sweden, certain important developments that concern the forthcoming five or ten years – or maybe in a somewhat longer perspective – can be singled out already today . They are, for example:

– increasing difficulties to achieve strong governments

– difficult times for EU (and the euro) to regain confidence in Sweden

– increasing importance for environmental issues

– further strengthening position of female leaders

– increasing individualism (with impact on certain industries and products/decreasing collectivism

– increasing pressure on the corporate sector to improve governance and ethical standards

– increasing need for financial skills (“financial literacy) on all levels

– increasing influence for China in many economic areas

– better government debt situation than in most other European countries, giving  good (theoretical) financial resources for future investments

– increasing need of better/modernized infrastructure

– continuous need for meeting demand for homes caused by urbanization

– demography: need of more efficient and – per capita – cheaper health care

– higher average age of retirement (new consumption patterns)

– increasing need of improvements what concerns labor markets (youth), taxes, entrepreneurship, the chain: researchà innovation à production (universities and the creation of new companies included).

Conclusion:
The medium-term outlook for the Swedish society/economy points at many promising future commercial opportunities – but also at a substantial number of challenges.

Let me finally quote Nobel Prize Winner Paul Samuelson’s words when I met him in the latter part of the 1990s: “In the global economy, there is no room anymore for comfortable ineffectiveness”.

These wise words are still valid today – and also in the future.