Baltic Business Research

Sammanfattning

Brad deLong – välkänd professor i ekonomisk historia vid Berkeley-universitet i San Francisco – analyserar i denna nyutkomna bok tillsammans med kollegan Stephen Cohen USA:s framtida roll i världsekonomin.  Kinas tilltagande globala inflytande diskuteras – vilket kommer att ske på bekostnad av USA:s. DeLong/Cohen förutser en växande statskapitalism och en tillbakagång av nyliberalismen.

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Many articles have been written in the past two years about the declining economic power of the American economy in the aftermath of the global financial and economic crisis. Of course, nobody can give an exact answer to this topic at this stage. But one should listen when experts like Cohen and – particularly –  DeLong raise their voices. This is why I read their book “The End of Influence” with great interest.

DeLong/Cohen use the uncomfortable American indebtedness and China’s enormous accumulation of currency reserves as the starting point for their analysis. “When you have the money – and you are a big, economically and culturally vital nation – you get more than just a higher standard of living for your citizens. You get power and influence…” On the other hand: “When the money drains out, you can maintain the edge of living standards of your citizens for a considerable time (as long as others are willing to hold your growing debt and pile interest payments on top). But you lose power…”

The two authors of the book forecast the revival of state capitalism and a declining influence of neoliberalism, particularly in the U.S. In the future, governments will intervene much actively to affect markets, according to the two professors.

DeLong and Cohen do not see a primary risk in foreign (Chinese) buying of American companies per se – but in the challenge “where the spillovers of the innovations go”. DeLong/Cohen fear that the spillovers – which historically stayed in the U.S. and which strongly contributed to regional growth – will go outside the U.S, thanks to foreign money.

The book does not predict the fall of the U.S. We are, however, told that others have the money. Consequently, the U.S. will lose power and influence – but it will remain a world power. 

 “The End of Influence” is a most interesting reading. However, it is based on the assumptions of sustained major fiscal problems in the U.S. and continuous economic stability in China. These assumptions are probably right for the forthcoming years. But what will happen 10-15 years from now? China has its (still hidden) structural imbalances as well – and the U.S. may at some point turn their own problems in the right direction again.

DeLong’s and Cohen’s book is not written very academically, which is good for trying to get a broader public to understand this ongoing, very severe problem in the world economy. They point to possible developments that really look uncomfortable. Not each and every one of their conclusions will come true.  But the warning signals should not be ignored.