{"id":134,"date":"2009-12-02T14:22:59","date_gmt":"2009-12-02T12:22:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=134"},"modified":"2009-12-02T14:22:59","modified_gmt":"2009-12-02T12:22:59","slug":"emerging-markets-some-striking-observations-emerging-markets-nagot-forbisedda-observationer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=134","title":{"rendered":"Emerging markets – some striking observations ; Emerging markets – n\u00e5got f\u00f6rbisedda observationer"},"content":{"rendered":"

Summary<\/strong>
\n<\/em>This blog is <\/em>looking at insufficient statistical standards in most Asian countries. Further improvements are badly needed in a number of countries \u2013 not only in China.\u00a0 When it comes to China, we recently could watch once more that China\u2019s global positions \u2013 as, for example, concerning the environment and exchange rate policy – to a very high extent are nationally determined (which is not unusual for big countries).<\/p>\n

In Russia, president Medvedev made some interesting, self-critical comments\u00a0on the lagging structural state of the economy. However, verbal criticism is not enough to change things.\u00a0 Institutional improvements according to the broad definition of Douglass North are particularly needed.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, discussions in and about the Baltic states continue to be interesting. Too much is talked and written about fiscal austerity, despite its importance.\u00a0 But what happens and has to be done once the Baltic economies recover? Renewed deterioration of the current account deficits has to be feared. For this reason, too little focus nowadays is put on long-term (structural) improvements of the current account deficit.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Asiatiska statistikbrister irriterar
\n<\/em>Jag har p\u00e5 senare \u00e5r vid upprepade tillf\u00e4llen givit uttryck f\u00f6r flertalet asiatiska l\u00e4nders bristande statistiska kvalitet. Flertalet tidsserier \u00e4r antingen f\u00f6r korta eller historiskt inkonsistenta. Eller s\u00e5 finns viss viktig statistik \u00f6verhuvudtaget inte. Visst b\u00f6r dylika fenomen betraktas med \u00f6dmjukhet \u2013 men det borde \u00e5tminstone synas kontinuerliga framsteg. S\u00e5 \u00e4r dock ofta inte fallet. Fortfarande saknas det ett bredare sortiment av j\u00e4mf\u00f6rbar statistik mellan l\u00e4nderna i linje med OECD:s harmoniserade statistikberedning (se ocks\u00e5 ett alltj\u00e4mt aktuellt paper i detta \u00e4rende fr\u00e5n 2007 av Timmer, Monnikhof and de Vries). Dessa statistiska brister b\u00f6rjar bli alltmer allvarliga med tanke p\u00e5 den v\u00e4xande betydelsen av Asiens ekonomier och finansmarknader – och utg\u00f6r ett substantiellt hinder f\u00f6r relevant forskning.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Indiens tillv\u00e4xt f\u00f6rbryllar
\n<\/em>Under innevarande vecka fick vi information om att Indiens BNP under det tredje kvartalet i \u00e5r tilltagit med respektabla 7,9% j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med samma kvartal \u00e5ret innan. Privat konsumtion och statliga tillv\u00e4xtimpulser utg\u00f6r huvudf\u00f6rklaringarna. Till saken h\u00f6r dock ocks\u00e5 \u2013 vilket ofta \u00e4r f\u00f6rbisett \u2013 att Indien alltj\u00e4mt \u00e4r en relativt inhemskt orienterad ekonomi, speciellt j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med flertalet andra asiatiska l\u00e4nder. Det \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 relevant att veta att Indiens BNP-tillv\u00e4xt systematiskt underskattas, enligt en del experter med minst 10%.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Kinas egen globaliseringspolitik
\n<\/em>Kina \u00e4r numera en stor akt\u00f6r p\u00e5 den globala handels- och finansfronten. Kina har speciellt under de senaste tv\u00e5 \u00e0 tre \u00e5ren framg\u00e5ngsrikt flyttat fram sina positioner p\u00e5 den globala arenan. Inte minst inom milj\u00f6- och valutapolitiken dominerar dock fortfarande mer kortsiktiga nationella intressen (vilket f\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt ofta \u00e4r fallet i st\u00f6rre och inflytelserika l\u00e4nder). Fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r dock hur h\u00e5llbara dessa kinesiska positioner \u00e4r. Inom milj\u00f6omr\u00e5det \u00e4r det kanske sv\u00e5rast att f\u00e5 Kina inom \u00f6versk\u00e5dlig tid att verka \u00e4nnu mer aktivt, s\u00e4rskilt med tanke p\u00e5 att Kina nyligen satt upp numeriska utsl\u00e4ppsm\u00e5l. Valutapolitiken kommer att \u00e5terg\u00e5\u00a0 till den tidigare apprecieringspolitiken \u2013 men snarare n\u00e5got senare \u00e4n mycket snart.\u00a0 Den st\u00e4ndiga \u2013 inom gruppen \u201demerging markets mer markerade – konflikten mellan mer kortsiktiga (tillv\u00e4xt) och l\u00e5ngsiktiga m\u00e5l (milj\u00f6, sundare produktions- och konkurrensstrukturer) m\u00e4rks s\u00e5ledes inte minst i Mittens rike\u00a0och i samband med den egna\u00a0globaliseringspolitiken, vilken idag dessv\u00e4rre inte ens optimerar kinesiska intressen.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Medvedev \u00f6verraskar
\n<\/em>Rysslands president Dmitrij Medvedev \u00f6verraskade nyligen omv\u00e4rlden med att konstatera att rysk ekonomi egentligen befinner sig i ett icke acceptabelt strukturellt skick \u2013 med en alldeles f\u00f6r stor koncentration p\u00e5 r\u00e5varu- och energiproduktion\/-export och alldeles f\u00f6r lite sofistikerad och teknologiskt konkurrenskraftig tillverkning. R\u00e4tt insikt och diagnos \u00e4r visserligen bra. Men det beh\u00f6vs ocks\u00e5 r\u00e4tt terapi, vilken fr\u00e4mst borde avse institutionella f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttringar p\u00e5 alla fronter. Det f\u00f6ruts\u00e4tter i sin tur nya och f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrade incitamentsstrukturer. Dessa kan givetvis skapas \u201duppifr\u00e5n\u201d \u2013 men kr\u00e4ver en m\u00e4rkbar uppbackning och spridning fr\u00e4mst \u201dunderifr\u00e5n\u201d. F\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrade institutioner kr\u00e4ver \u201dfolkets\u201d och de hierarkiskt mindre bemedlade intressegruppernas st\u00f6d. Det g\u00e4ller ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6r Rysslands och Medvedevs str\u00e4van att \u00e5stadkomma en modern och globalt konkurrenskraftig rysk ekonomi.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sn\u00e4v Baltikum-debatt
\n<\/em>Diskussionen kring de baltiska l\u00e4nderna handlar f\u00f6r n\u00e4rvarande v\u00e4ldigt mycket om en tillr\u00e4ckligt \u00e5tstramande finanspolitik \u2013 och s\u00e5ledes om det korta perspektivet.\u00a0 Denna tyngdpunkt i debatten \u00e4r givetvis inte omotiverad. Risken \u00f6kar dock att den mer l\u00e5ngsiktiga, helt n\u00f6dv\u00e4ndiga strukturella f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttringen av bytesbalanserna i Lettland, Litauen och Estland hamnar i bakgrunden \u2013 eller att man kommer fram till den felaktiga slutsatsen att ett p\u00e5skyndat EMU-intr\u00e4de skulle l\u00f6sa (n\u00e4stan) alla problem. <\/em><\/p>\n

Till analysen h\u00f6r att de baltiska l\u00e4ndernas p\u00e5 senare tid uppn\u00e5dda bytesbalansf\u00f6rb\u00e4ttringar i allt v\u00e4sentligt kan h\u00e4nf\u00f6ras till det stora tillv\u00e4xtfallet och den h\u00e4rav f\u00f6ljande importreduceringen. En f\u00f6rr eller senare kommande konjunkturf\u00f6rb\u00e4ttring i de baltiska l\u00e4nderna kommer dock \u00e5nyo att medf\u00f6ra synligt \u00f6kad import. Med andra ord: Analysen handlar alldeles f\u00f6r lite om hur f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrade exportstrukturer och nya eller f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrade exportprodukter kan \u00e5stadkommas under de kommande \u00e5ren \u2013 med kanske humankapitalbildningen i f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningarnas fokus (i linje med den moderna tillv\u00e4xtforskningen). Samtidigt som vi vet att just denna faktor drabbas speciellt av nedsk\u00e4rningar.<\/p>\n

EU:s statistik (Eurostat) visar tydligt att de baltiska l\u00e4ndernas forskningsinsatser – och d\u00e4rmed en mycket viktig f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttning f\u00f6r den l\u00e5ngsiktiga tillv\u00e4xten och bytesbalansf\u00f6rb\u00e4ttringen – ter sig helt underm\u00e5liga. Dessa brister kan inte heller d\u00f6ljas genom ett (f\u00f6r tidigt) EMU-intr\u00e4de. Den p\u00e5g\u00e5ende oron kring EMU-landet Grekland torde kunna tas som ett varnande exempel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Summary This blog is looking at insufficient statistical standards in most Asian countries. Further improvements are badly needed in a number of countries \u2013 not only in China.\u00a0 When it comes to China, we recently could watch once more that China\u2019s global positions \u2013 as, for example, concerning the environment and exchange rate policy – […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nEmerging markets - some striking observations ; Emerging markets - n\u00e5got f\u00f6rbisedda observationer - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=134\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Emerging markets - some striking observations ; Emerging markets - n\u00e5got f\u00f6rbisedda observationer - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary This blog is looking at insufficient statistical standards in most Asian countries. 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