{"id":233,"date":"2010-10-11T09:31:09","date_gmt":"2010-10-11T07:31:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=233"},"modified":"2010-10-11T09:31:09","modified_gmt":"2010-10-11T07:31:09","slug":"should-we-care-about-chinas-concerns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=233","title":{"rendered":"Should we care about China\u2019s concerns?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Sammanfattning<\/em><\/strong><em>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/p>\n<p>Kina har p\u00e5 senare tid uttryckt sin oro \u00f6ver USA:s &#8211; och p\u00e5 sistone ocks\u00e5 Eurolands \u2013 kritiska syn p\u00e5 sin valutapolitik. I sitt f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att avf\u00e4rda den v\u00e4sterl\u00e4ndska kritiken p\u00e5talade premi\u00e4rminister Wen Jiabao Kinas olika risker som f\u00f6ljd av en snabbare kurs\u00e4ndring till en starkare renminbi \u2013 inklusive risken f\u00f6r social oro. Den senare punkten framkallade &#8211; konstigt nog &#8211; ingen st\u00f6rre massmedial eller analytisk uppm\u00e4rksamhet i v\u00e5r del av v\u00e4rlden. \u00c4r detta sk\u00e4l nog att negligera Wens varningar?<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<\/p>\n<p>During the first week of October, the U.S. and \u2013 after a longer period of relaxation \u2013 Europe loudly increased their pressure on China. They want China to speed up its appreciation process. This criticism may be motivated if we stick to the pure economic analysis of global economic and financial imbalances which actually put the world\u2019s two biggest economies in the front row. Another question, of course, is whether the Western verbal attacks on China can take us closer to a solution of the problem.<\/p>\n<p>I don\u2019t think so. I even think that this renewed external currency pressure on China is counterproductive and will delay a better solution of the currency disequilibrium between China and the OECD world. This conclusion is not very courageous. But there is another piece in this verbal \u201ccurrency war\u201d that puzzles me a lot:<\/p>\n<p>Why did Chinese prime minister Wen Jiabao use the following strong words when reacting recently (October 6) on(mainly) the tough American pressure on Chinese exchange rate policy:<\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cDo not pressurize us on the renminbi rate\u2026Many of our exporting companies would have to close down, migrant workers would have to return to their villages. If China saw social and economic turbulences, it would be a disaster for the world\u2026 \u201c.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The answer is not quite obvious. Three possibilities may be singled out:<\/p>\n<p>a)\u00a0 Many Chinese exporting companies are <em>really<\/em> in deep troubles and can just survive with their current product\/profit margins.<\/p>\n<p>b)\u00a0 Derived from a): Chinese political leaders have tough domestic pressure on their exchange rate policy for short-term labor market reasons, thus neglecting the needs of certain structural domestic improvements and globally necessary adjustments, like, for example, in exchange rate policy.<\/p>\n<p>c)\u00a0 Chinese problems with the export-related employment are not so serious \u2013 but they may be stressed by the expectation that very concerned and dramatic Chinese descriptions of the current situation may lead to increased international understanding of China\u2019s complicated exchange rate policy.<\/p>\n<p>I am not very inclined to join the third possibility (even if it cannot be ruled out completely). It does not seem to be plausible option that a Chinese leader for tactical reasons points at the risk of <em>social<\/em> unrest and its consequences.<\/p>\n<p>Conclusion:<\/p>\n<p><em>Chinese political leaders are probably truly concerned about the risk for social nervousness or even social conflicts if the renminbi gets into a fast appreciation cycle \u2013 a development that in particular influential conservative political leaders outside the government internally may be warning for strongly these days. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sammanfattning\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Kina har p\u00e5 senare tid uttryckt sin oro \u00f6ver USA:s &#8211; och p\u00e5 sistone ocks\u00e5 Eurolands \u2013 kritiska syn p\u00e5 sin valutapolitik. I sitt f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att avf\u00e4rda den v\u00e4sterl\u00e4ndska kritiken p\u00e5talade premi\u00e4rminister Wen Jiabao Kinas olika risker som f\u00f6ljd av en snabbare kurs\u00e4ndring till en starkare renminbi \u2013 inklusive risken f\u00f6r social oro. Den [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Should we care about China\u2019s concerns? - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=233\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Should we care about China\u2019s concerns? - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sammanfattning\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Kina har p\u00e5 senare tid uttryckt sin oro \u00f6ver USA:s &#8211; och p\u00e5 sistone ocks\u00e5 Eurolands \u2013 kritiska syn p\u00e5 sin valutapolitik. I sitt f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att avf\u00e4rda den v\u00e4sterl\u00e4ndska kritiken p\u00e5talade premi\u00e4rminister Wen Jiabao Kinas olika risker som f\u00f6ljd av en snabbare kurs\u00e4ndring till en starkare renminbi \u2013 inklusive risken f\u00f6r social oro. Den [&hellip;]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=233\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2010-10-11T07:31:09+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"hubert\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Skriven av\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"hubert\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Ber\u00e4knad l\u00e4stid\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minuter\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=233\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=233\",\"name\":\"Should we care about China\u2019s concerns? - Baltic Business Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2010-10-11T07:31:09+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2010-10-11T07:31:09+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/ac4aba9641e918c080d4110e3b8b77a7\"},\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=233\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/\",\"name\":\"Baltic Business Research\",\"description\":\"Hubert Fromlet diskuterar den svenska och internationella ekonomin\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/ac4aba9641e918c080d4110e3b8b77a7\",\"name\":\"hubert\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?author=352\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Should we care about China\u2019s concerns? - Baltic Business Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=233","og_locale":"sv_SE","og_type":"article","og_title":"Should we care about China\u2019s concerns? - Baltic Business Research","og_description":"Sammanfattning\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Kina har p\u00e5 senare tid uttryckt sin oro \u00f6ver USA:s &#8211; och p\u00e5 sistone ocks\u00e5 Eurolands \u2013 kritiska syn p\u00e5 sin valutapolitik. I sitt f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att avf\u00e4rda den v\u00e4sterl\u00e4ndska kritiken p\u00e5talade premi\u00e4rminister Wen Jiabao Kinas olika risker som f\u00f6ljd av en snabbare kurs\u00e4ndring till en starkare renminbi \u2013 inklusive risken f\u00f6r social oro. 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