{"id":240,"date":"2010-10-26T09:57:31","date_gmt":"2010-10-26T07:57:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=240"},"modified":"2010-10-26T09:57:31","modified_gmt":"2010-10-26T07:57:31","slug":"china-survey-no-11-october-2010-some-cooling-off-seems-to-be-in-the-cards","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=240","title":{"rendered":"China Survey No 11 &#8211; October 2010 : \u201dSome cooling off seems to be in the cards!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Summary<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Our so-called <strong>overheating indicator<\/strong> (or index for GDP-growth temperature) rose in October to 7.1 compared to 6.4 in February this year (10=extremely overheated). Around 25 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated again in this survey.<\/li>\n<li><strong>GDP forecasts<\/strong> (average): 2010: 9.7 %;\u00a0 2011: 8.9 %;\u00a0 2011q4: 9.0 %;\u00a0 2012: 8.9 %.<br \/>\nThe forecasts have a slight downward bias for 2011 and a larger one for 2012. This is a signal that should be followed up on a regular basis.<\/li>\n<li>The <strong>main contribution to GDP growth<\/strong> during the forecasting period is expected to come from (ranked):<br \/>\nNo 1: investment<br \/>\nNo 2: consumption<br \/>\nNo 3: net exports.<\/li>\n<li>63% of the panelists predict that the RMB will have a slight <strong>appreciation against the U.S.dollar in 2011<\/strong> (up to 5%) and 32% a more visible one (by more than 5%). The latter share has been growing sharply since our last survey.<\/li>\n<li>95% of the panelists think that there still exists a dangerous <strong>price bubble<\/strong> on the real estate market (Feb 2010: 78 %). This is a noticeable change to the worse.<\/li>\n<li>The panel\u2019s grading of <strong>confidence in the Chinese economy<\/strong> looks as follows<br \/>\n(10=best grading; 1=very low):<br \/>\n3 years from now: 3.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 5 years from now: 3.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10 years from now: 2.9<\/li>\n<li>Some Chinese areas that have received their <strong>grading<\/strong> again, October 2010<br \/>\n(10=best grading; 1=lowest grading):<br \/>\nTrust in statistics: \u00a0<strong>4.4<\/strong><br \/>\nTrust in corporate accounting: \u00a0\u00a0<strong>4.2<br \/>\n<\/strong>Institutional framework: <strong>4.4<\/strong><br \/>\nTransparency in economic policy:\u00a0\u00a0 <strong>4.0<\/strong><br \/>\nTransparency on financial markets:\u00a0\u00a0 <strong>3.6<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bbs.hik.se\/resurser\/dokument\/fromlet\/GDP.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"576\" height=\"269\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbs.hik.se\/resurser\/dokument\/fromlet\/LNU 2010 - EMA_no2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Read full article<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Our so-called overheating indicator (or index for GDP-growth temperature) rose in October to 7.1 compared to 6.4 in February this year (10=extremely overheated). Around 25 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated again in this survey. GDP forecasts (average): 2010: 9.7 %;\u00a0 2011: 8.9 %;\u00a0 2011q4: 9.0 %;\u00a0 2012: 8.9 %. The [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>China Survey No 11 - October 2010 : \u201dSome cooling off seems to be in the cards! - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=240\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China Survey No 11 - October 2010 : \u201dSome cooling off seems to be in the cards! - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary Our so-called overheating indicator (or index for GDP-growth temperature) rose in October to 7.1 compared to 6.4 in February this year (10=extremely overheated). Around 25 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated again in this survey. GDP forecasts (average): 2010: 9.7 %;\u00a0 2011: 8.9 %;\u00a0 2011q4: 9.0 %;\u00a0 2012: 8.9 %. 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