{"id":280,"date":"2011-02-14T09:43:42","date_gmt":"2011-02-14T07:43:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=280"},"modified":"2011-02-14T09:43:42","modified_gmt":"2011-02-14T07:43:42","slug":"webers-retratt-kan-ge-ecb-trovardighetsproblem-webers-resignation-may-give-credibility-problems-to-the-ecb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=280","title":{"rendered":"Webers retr\u00e4tt kan ge ECB trov\u00e4rdighetsproblem – Weber\u2019s resignation may give credibility problems to the ECB"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sammanfattning<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Bundesbanks chef Axel Weber vill inte l\u00e4ngre bli president f\u00f6r den Europeiska Centralbanken (ECB). Han har ocks\u00e5 tr\u00f6ttnat p\u00e5 chefsrollen i Bundesbank \u2013 ett mandat som ex officio betyder r\u00f6str\u00e4tt vid ECB:s r\u00e4ntebeslut. P\u00e5 senare tid har Weber befunnit sig i en minoritetsposition med sin skepsis mot ECB:s k\u00f6p av oattraktiva obligationer fr\u00e5n problemtyngda EMU-l\u00e4nder.<\/p>\n

D\u00e4rf\u00f6r \u00e4r det konsekvent och r\u00e4tt att han snart l\u00e4mnar centralbanksv\u00e4rlden. Detta steg kan dock ge ECB:s trov\u00e4rdighetsproblem\u00a0 \u2013 om inte Trichets eftertr\u00e4dare uppfattas som ett stabilitetsankare. Finlands centralbankschef Erkki Liikanen vore en bra kompromisskandidat, m\u00f6jligen ocks\u00e5 den relativt tillbakadragne ECB-ledningsledamoten J\u00fcrgen Stark (om det nu ska bli en tysk).<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r EMU-kandidatl\u00e4nderna runt \u00d6stersj\u00f6n kan det ocks\u00e5 vara av intresse vem som blir ECB:s nya president, \u00e4ven om det\u00a0 \u00e4r regeringscheferna som fattar det formella beslutet och ett EMU-intr\u00e4de. En alltf\u00f6r l\u00e4tt \u00f6verg\u00e5ng till euron kan p\u00e5 sikt komma att inneb\u00e4ra en bj\u00f6rntj\u00e4nst f\u00f6r nuvarande euro-kandidatl\u00e4nder. Det finns – som bekant – en rad aktuella negativa exempel p\u00e5 dylika l\u00e4nder.<\/p>\n

—————————————–<\/p>\n

The president of the German Bundesbank and voting member of the ECB:s Governing Council, Axel Weber, will be stepping aside from May 1. The resignation of Weber means new challenges for the ECB and – in the worst case \u2013 much more troubles than generally expected at this stage. For quite some time, Axel Weber seemed to be the most probable candidate to take over the presidency of the ECB in November this year after the current head of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet. Now he\u2019s out \u2013 which gives reasons to some question marks and concrete concerns.<\/p>\n

1.<\/strong> Serious reasons for Weber\u2019s resignation.
\n<\/strong>I cannot find it encouraging to note Weber\u2019s main reason for his resignation, i.e. his minority position when it comes to the fundamental need of fiscal stability in Euroland. The reason for this isolation was that he opposed to the ECB\u2019s purchasing of bonds from troubled EMU-member countries. The risk that the ECB may develop into a \u201cmoral hazard\u201d institution is not negligible when sovereign markets get into turmoil again, according to Weber implicitly.\u00a0 I share this view.<\/p>\n

2. The head of the ECB must be a strong leader.<\/strong>
\nWithout doubt, Weber\u2019s position in the ECB\u2019s Governing Council has been weakened in recent months. During a meeting two weeks ago with a German friend and colleague – who also frequently came to see and listen to Weber –\u00a0 I doubted Weber\u2019s ambitions to become the president of the ECB. My colleague did not. My point was exactly the declining national and international support of Weber.\u00a0 This was obviously the case. Even chancellor Angela Merkel seems to have diminished her appreciation of Axel Weber during the past few months. Consequently, it wasn\u2019t that difficult to guess that an analytically educated and outspoken guy as Axel Weber would not appreciate to look for compromises between Southern\/Western European \u201cfiscal sinners\u201d and stability-oriented Northern EMU countries.<\/p>\n

3. Inflation targeting alone would be wrong
\n<\/strong>There is a possibility that the future head of the ECB may be a supporter of direct inflation targeting. However, this would not be positive since too unilateral concentration on inflation could take attention away from more systematic focusing on credits and asset prices. It would not either be a good idea to change monetary policy towards the American model (which also includes the support of employment and bond\u00a0 prices). I cannot imagine that such an approach would work in the eurozone with 17 member countries.<\/p>\n

4. Softer view on future EMU members?
\n<\/strong>I always have been opposing to early entries of EMU candidate countries. And I got scared again when chancellor Merkel and president Sarkozy the other day quite strongly were supporting Poland\u2019s current ambitions to join the euro by 2015. Who knows already right now about the economic situation of Poland and other EMU-candidate countries four years from now? Sure, the final decision of such a step will be made by the heads of states or governments. But the ECB can influence these political decisions \u2013 and should therefore refrain from supporting soft interpretations of qualifying standards for countries that still (may) need important structural changes in the future and therefore one day could benefit from flexible exchange rates.<\/p>\n

5. The next president should come from a country with healthy fundamentals \u2013 this time from Suomi?
\n<\/strong>Without talking about specific people, the next president of the ECB should come from a country with more or less healthy fundamentals, e.g. from Germany, the Netherlands (which, however,\u00a0 already had an ECB president), Austria or Finland. This opens the door somewhat for the current German chief economist of the ECB, J\u00fcrgen Stark. Mr. Nowotny, the president of the Austrian Central Bank, should not\u00a0 be ruled out completely either. My best two guesses, however, are different: Governor Erkki Liikanen from the Bank of Finland or a \u201cdeus ex machina\u201d \u2013 someone nobody thinks about right now. Could such a person be competent Yves Mersch from Luxemburg (despite Luxemburg\u2019s favoring of eurobonds backed by EMU states collectively – which is strongly disliked by Angela Merkel!)? Anyway, in the eyes of many experts, the main favorite is still Italy\u2019s experienced Mario Draghi who once worked at a big investment bank that supported the financing of the enormous Greek deficits. The big question, however, could be what happens if Italy once should be involved in a serious debt crisis.<\/p>\n

To summarize:\u00a0 We should not forget that the forthcoming nomination of a new ECB president will be decided by political leaders. The important thing for them is to find a strong ECB leader who can maintain credibility of the ECB and the euro \u2013 and an ECB leader who can find the compromises and limits in the Governing Council that are still acceptable to maintain necessary credibility on financial markets. This won\u2019t be easy! <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sammanfattning Bundesbanks chef Axel Weber vill inte l\u00e4ngre bli president f\u00f6r den Europeiska Centralbanken (ECB). Han har ocks\u00e5 tr\u00f6ttnat p\u00e5 chefsrollen i Bundesbank \u2013 ett mandat som ex officio betyder r\u00f6str\u00e4tt vid ECB:s r\u00e4ntebeslut. P\u00e5 senare tid har Weber befunnit sig i en minoritetsposition med sin skepsis mot ECB:s k\u00f6p av oattraktiva obligationer fr\u00e5n problemtyngda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nWebers retr\u00e4tt kan ge ECB trov\u00e4rdighetsproblem - Weber\u2019s resignation may give credibility problems to the ECB - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=280\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Webers retr\u00e4tt kan ge ECB trov\u00e4rdighetsproblem - Weber\u2019s resignation may give credibility problems to the ECB - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sammanfattning Bundesbanks chef Axel Weber vill inte l\u00e4ngre bli president f\u00f6r den Europeiska Centralbanken (ECB). 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