{"id":288,"date":"2011-02-16T15:52:15","date_gmt":"2011-02-16T13:52:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=288"},"modified":"2011-02-16T15:52:15","modified_gmt":"2011-02-16T13:52:15","slug":"vietnam-idag-ett-laroboksexempel-pa-obalanserad-ekonomi-vietnam-an-illuminating-example-of-poor-macroeconomic-balance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=288","title":{"rendered":"Vietnam idag  &#8211;  ett l\u00e4roboksexempel p\u00e5 obalanserad ekonomi ; Vietnam  &#8211;  an illuminating example of poor macroeconomic balance"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Sammanfattning<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Det har diskuterats p\u00e5 senare tid i vad m\u00e5n finanskrisen och globaliseringen medf\u00f6rt att gamla ekonomiska principer och samband satts ur spel. I vissa avseenden \u00e4r det nog s\u00e5, till exempel inom delar av omr\u00e5det \u201dfinance\u201d. D\u00e4remot \u00e4r det uppenbart att v\u00e4lk\u00e4nda makroekonomiska obalanser avseende exempelvis statsfinanser och bytesbalans samt h\u00f6g inflation och en enorm kreditbubbla r\u00e4cker till f\u00f6r f\u00f6rsatta ett land i kris, idag som ig\u00e5r. Dylika fundamentala obalanser\u00a0 har beskrivits i l\u00e4rob\u00f6ckerna i\u00a0 \u00e5rtionden.\u00a0 Vietnam \u00e4r det senaste landet med en s\u00e5dan negativ utveckling\u00a0 \u2013 ett relativt stort land som under de senaste \u00e5ren till och med proklamerats som ett slags \u201dlittle China\u201d. Allm\u00e4nt kan s\u00e4gas att f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrad makroekonomisk balans i l\u00e4nder med svag makroekonomisk struktur f\u00f6rr eller senare erfordrar \u00e5tstramningar och uppoffringar. \u201dEmerging markets\u201d \u00e4r m a o inte sj\u00e4lvg\u00e5ende. De m\u00e5ste ocks\u00e5 \u00e5stadkomma en st\u00e4ndigt balanss\u00f6kande ekonomisk politik &#8211; precis som i v\u00e5r del av v\u00e4rlden.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>The question whether (certain) macroeconomic principles and conclusions have been changing since the rapid acceleration of globalization and the financial crisis has been a topic at a number of conferences and in academic papers in the past two years. Certain changes of traditional fundamentals may have occurred to some extent , particularly on the macrofinancial level.<\/p>\n<p>But let\u2019s have a test:<br \/>\n<em>What do you think about the following example from an Asian country \u2013 is it a matter of concern ?<\/em><\/p>\n<p>____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n<p>GDP 2010:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 growing by around 6 \u00bd percent\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Current\u00a0 account deficit 2010:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 around 7 percent of GDP<\/p>\n<p>Budget deficit 2010:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 around\u00a0 6 percent of GDP<\/p>\n<p>Inflation Jan 2011:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 12.2 percent<\/p>\n<p>Excessive credit boom:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 yes<\/p>\n<p>High share of foreign loans:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 yes<\/p>\n<p>Decreasing currency reserves:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 yes<\/p>\n<p>Recent downgrading by rating agency:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 yes<\/p>\n<p>____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n<p>Studies of statistics like the above-mentioned are every fall part of my course in emerging market economics at Linnaeus University. When analyzing a statistical framework with numbers and trends that are similar to the above-mentioned from Vietnam, most students usually get quite concerned\u00a0 and forecast that certain political reactions like credit restrictions, fiscal austerity or a substantial weakening of the currency should\/will take place.<\/p>\n<p>Concerns like the ones mentioned by the students, however, were not raised at the Vietnamese Communist Party\u2019s Congress only a couple of weeks ago when everything seemed to be on the right track, according to the Vietnamese political leadership.<\/p>\n<p>But only some weeks later, Vietnam had to devalue its exchange rate which fell immediately from 18930 to 20693 dong against the U.S.dollar. The devaluation was a logical consequence of all the imbalances in the Vietnamese economy. However, I could not find news about effective measures to improve the structural problems of the Vietnamese economy. Thus, further\u00a0 crises and weakening of the currency should be on the cards in the future \u2013 unless there will be a re-thinking of economic policy, by moving from GDP growth at any price to economic growth that is in line with improvements of economic fundamentals.<\/p>\n<p><em>The Vietnamese examples shows very well that \u201cold\u201d macroeconomic principles and textbooks many times still are valid \u2013 and that emerging economies not automatically grow and become strong tigers. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sammanfattning Det har diskuterats p\u00e5 senare tid i vad m\u00e5n finanskrisen och globaliseringen medf\u00f6rt att gamla ekonomiska principer och samband satts ur spel. I vissa avseenden \u00e4r det nog s\u00e5, till exempel inom delar av omr\u00e5det \u201dfinance\u201d. D\u00e4remot \u00e4r det uppenbart att v\u00e4lk\u00e4nda makroekonomiska obalanser avseende exempelvis statsfinanser och bytesbalans samt h\u00f6g inflation och en [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Vietnam idag - ett l\u00e4roboksexempel p\u00e5 obalanserad ekonomi ; Vietnam - an illuminating example of poor macroeconomic balance - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=288\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Vietnam idag - ett l\u00e4roboksexempel p\u00e5 obalanserad ekonomi ; Vietnam - an illuminating example of poor macroeconomic balance - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sammanfattning Det har diskuterats p\u00e5 senare tid i vad m\u00e5n finanskrisen och globaliseringen medf\u00f6rt att gamla ekonomiska principer och samband satts ur spel. 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