{"id":292,"date":"2011-02-21T09:46:25","date_gmt":"2011-02-21T07:46:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=292"},"modified":"2011-02-21T09:46:25","modified_gmt":"2011-02-21T07:46:25","slug":"ecbs-nasta-president-fragetecknen-tilltar-the-next-president-of-the-ecb-re-visited-increasing-doubts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=292","title":{"rendered":"ECB:s n\u00e4sta president \u2013 fr\u00e5getecknen tilltar; The next president of the ECB (re-visited) \u2013 increasing doubts"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sammanfattning<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

I min blogg fr\u00e5n den 14 februari diskuterade jag namn och f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningar avseende den Europeiska Centralbankens kommande president. Tv\u00e5 av mig framf\u00f6rda kandidater – Erkki Liikanen fr\u00e5n Finland och Luxembergs Yves Mersch \u2013 har under tiden ropats tillbaka av sina regeringar. Liikanen var min egen huvudkandidat, d\u00e5 han representerar ett ekonomiskt r\u00e4tt v\u00e4lbalanserat land och Luxemburg under l\u00e5ng tid varit bortsk\u00e4md med EU-toppositioner.\u00a0 Italiens kompetente centralbankschef Mario Draghi kommer d\u00e4remot fr\u00e5n ett land med ekonomiska bekymmer. Draghi skulle som ECB-chef kunna hamna i\u00a0 obehagliga beslutssituationer – om Italien under de kommande \u00e5tta \u00e5ren skulle r\u00e5ka ut f\u00f6r en akut skuldkris! Han m\u00e5 vara likv\u00e4l vara favorit nummer ett i dessa dagar \u2013 men \u00e4nnu s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge b\u00f6r inte uteslutas att Nederl\u00e4ndernas erfarne centralbankschef Nout Wellink eller en just nu f\u00f6rbisedd tysk eller till och med fransman som skulle kunna \u00f6verraska b\u00e5de media och finansmarknader. Mycket st\u00e5r p\u00e5 spel \u2013 kanske till och med ECB:s trov\u00e4rdighet. Det vore bra om Finland kunde visa mer intresse f\u00f6r ECB-chefsjobbet. ECB:s framtida trov\u00e4rdighet \u00e4r mycket viktig \u00e4ven f\u00f6r i stort sett samtliga l\u00e4nder kring \u00d6stersj\u00f6n.<\/p>\n

————————<\/p>\n

In my last blog from February 14, I looked at some names and preconditions what concerns the forthcoming new president of the ECB. As a major precondition, I mentioned that Mr. Trichet\u2019s successor should come from a country that is not running real risks of becoming negatively involved in a burdening debt crisis.<\/p>\n

During the past week, however, I had to notice that acceptable candidates like Erkki Liikanen from Finland and Luxemburgs Yves Mersch have been taken away from the list of candidates by their own ministers of finance. These steps may have been premature. It could be smart if particularly Finland could re-consider its fading own interest in one of the most important European institutions.<\/p>\n

1. <\/strong>For the moment, I do not see any strong candidate anymore who can meet all the necessary criteria for the ECB presidency. At the same time, we know that no decision can be made without the acceptance of Germany and France.<\/p>\n

2.<\/strong> Practically, \u201ceverything\u201d now seems to be open for Italy\u2019s competent central bank leader Mario Draghi. His disadvantage, however, is that Draghi comes\u00a0 from a country that – at least theoretically – can become part of a debt crisis in the forthcoming years. Of course, it would be much better to recruit a president to the ECB from a country that is characterized by a relatively healthy and stable public debt situation. But you never know:\u00a0 stable today may develop into unstable tomorrow.\u00a0<\/p>\n

3.<\/strong> If Draghi cannot make it, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria and France should stand for the remaining candidates. However,
\n– Nout Wellink from the Netherlands has reached the age for retirement;
\n– Trichet from France will leave the office in Frankfurt\u00a0 (and another French leader comes directly after him?);
\n–\u00a0 a very anonymous, quite distant compromise candidate should not be completely forgotten: Athanasios\u00a0 Orphanides from Cyprus. Orphanides is an excellent academic and a central banker I appreciate a lot. He\u2019s strongly qualified. But his past as an adviser to the Fed may disqualify him in the eyes of a number of European decision-makers. By the way, Cyprus has no severe macroeconomic imbalances. But the public debt situation is deteriorating.\u00a0<\/p>\n

4.<\/strong> Are there any still forgotten strong candidates? From France – not so realistic – Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn from the IMF could be a good theoretical candidate for president Sarkozy \u2013 also in order to avoid him as a presidential candidate for the forthcoming presidential elections in France. However, strategic internal French \u201cgames\u201d will chancellor Merkel certainly not be interested in.<\/p>\n

5.<\/strong> Thus, Merkel and other heads of government probably would not appreciate two French heads of the ECB in a row. So, it might happen that Merkel still is looking for a broadly acceptable German candidate. But experienced Klaus Regling – CEO of the European Financial Stability Facility \u2013 has no experience as a central banker. J\u00fcrgen Stark is already member of the Executive Board of the ECB. Following strictly the rules of the Maastricht Treaty would mean that Stark would get only three years for the presidency (which certainly weakens his odds substantially).\u00a0 Stark could be a compromise \u2013 but not a really hot one.<\/p>\n

6.<\/strong> Of course, I know one or two more Germans who could get Mrs. Merkel\u2019s confidence for the ECB mandate. The German chancellor has been surprising before \u2013 and it could happen again. There is no doubt that the next president of the ECB will have the commitment and the burden to avoid any weakening of the credibility of the ECB. Therefore, politicians must contribute to creating the conditions for a continued positive status and reputation of the ECB. Mario Draghi needs such assistance as well.<\/p>\n

Mario Draghi could be a successful president of the ECB. But Italian politicians must support him by doing their homework much more efficiently! <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sammanfattning I min blogg fr\u00e5n den 14 februari diskuterade jag namn och f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningar avseende den Europeiska Centralbankens kommande president. Tv\u00e5 av mig framf\u00f6rda kandidater – Erkki Liikanen fr\u00e5n Finland och Luxembergs Yves Mersch \u2013 har under tiden ropats tillbaka av sina regeringar. Liikanen var min egen huvudkandidat, d\u00e5 han representerar ett ekonomiskt r\u00e4tt v\u00e4lbalanserat land […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nECB:s n\u00e4sta president \u2013 fr\u00e5getecknen tilltar; The next president of the ECB (re-visited) \u2013 increasing doubts - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=292\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ECB:s n\u00e4sta president \u2013 fr\u00e5getecknen tilltar; The next president of the ECB (re-visited) \u2013 increasing doubts - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sammanfattning I min blogg fr\u00e5n den 14 februari diskuterade jag namn och f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningar avseende den Europeiska Centralbankens kommande president. 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