{"id":296,"date":"2011-03-07T15:58:20","date_gmt":"2011-03-07T13:58:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=296"},"modified":"2011-03-07T15:58:20","modified_gmt":"2011-03-07T13:58:20","slug":"osakerheten-kring-kina-definitivt-inget-nytt-uncertainty-about-china-nothing-new-at-all","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=296","title":{"rendered":"Os\u00e4kerheten kring Kina \u2013 definitivt inget nytt – Uncertainty about China \u2013 nothing new at all"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sammanfattning<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Finansmarknaderna har blivit oroliga \u00f6ver Kinas obalans. Dessa obalanser inneb\u00e4r dock definitivt ingen nyhet – trots alltmer kortsiktig inverkan p\u00e5 de globala finansmarknaderna. En mer noggrann Kinaanalys har forsummats alltf\u00f6r l\u00e4nge utanf\u00f6r Kinas gr\u00e4nser eller p\u00e5verkats f\u00f6r mycket av v\u00e4sterl\u00e4ndska industriledares ensidiga syn p\u00e5 de egna (potentiella) marknadsutsikterna. Den nya 5-\u00e5rsplanen – som nyss presenterades vid den Nationella folkkongressen – ligger visserligen r\u00e4tt i sina makroekonomiska m\u00e5ls\u00e4ttningar och strategier. H\u00e4r handlar det dock mycket om den ekonomiska politikens effektivitet, vilken uppenbarligen l\u00e4mnar en del att \u00f6nska.<\/p>\n

—————————–\u00a0<\/p>\n

1.<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0 Currently, I daily can find comments on global financial markets that in one way or another refer to uncertainty and increasing imbalances in China. This leads me to three conclusions, both with a positive and a negative bias.<\/p>\n

2.<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0 The three conclusions can be summarized as follows (more about these issues can be found in my previous blogs and papers):
\n–\u00a0 Financial markets have finally found out that an analysis that only looks at fast GDP growth sooner\u00a0or later will miss increasing imbalances, coming from credit booms, increasing inflation, asset prices bubbles, etc.
\n–\u00a0 Financial markets outside China are starting attempts to improved understanding of the Chinese economy. This is positive. But it may delay the deregulation of Chinese capital controls even further \u2013 and China\u2019s way to reformed and modernized domestic financial markets with satisfying transparency.
\n–\u00a0 Since financial markets react first now on bad news from China and most problems like the ongoing credit boom, exploding apartment prices in the metropolitan areas, and inflation – though they were obvious for quite some time – we finally get the confirmation that the macroeconomic analysis of China was insufficient in the past.\u00a0<\/p>\n

3.<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0 The growing importance of China and the analysis of this economic superpower also mean that Western and others (financial) institutions must receive the resources and priority for deepened analyses of China. On average, these skills of most Western banks\u2019 analysts\u00a0 and financial managers are still – more or less – on a beginner\u2019s level.<\/p>\n

4.<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0 Some more comments seem to be necessary these days. Having seen all these increases of banks\u2019 cash requirements at the central bank PBoC and various interest rate hikes, it\u2019s really obvious that the Chinese leadership is concerned about the growing imbalances in the economy – but also that the efficiency of policy tools remains quite limited. Some important explanations are insufficient monetary policy tools of the PBoC, limited central political influence on provincial and local levels and poor transparency in policy effectiveness even for the Chinese.<\/p>\n

5.<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Finally, some words about the new 5-year plan that was presented last week at the National People\u2019s Congress. According to my understanding, it\u2019s a document of optimism, self-criticism and concern. Optimism is about all the objectives until 2015, in certain cases too optimistic. However, the open descriptions of many problems should be recognized. In this respect, transparency has increased markedly in the past decade. My doubts are very much about three issues.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

First, <\/em>it seems to be very unclear how China should reduce its average GDP growth rate to 7 % in the next five years without\u00a0 some kind of economic crisis. Growth reduction plans\u00a0 to around 8% have been tried several times in the past five years \u2013 but without success.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Second.<\/em> It looks difficult to achieve the political leadership\u2019s objective of both further urbanization and the environmental goals.<\/p>\n

Third. <\/em>Restructuring the economy from export-led and investment-led to more consumption-led growth\u00a0definitely needs more than words and plans. It needs the people\u2019s confidence in improved social welfare.\u00a0 But this will be more the mandate of the next political generation that will take over in two years. Obviously, the time horizon for a clearly visible consumption-led economy will be more than five years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sammanfattning\u00a0\u00a0 Finansmarknaderna har blivit oroliga \u00f6ver Kinas obalans. Dessa obalanser inneb\u00e4r dock definitivt ingen nyhet – trots alltmer kortsiktig inverkan p\u00e5 de globala finansmarknaderna. En mer noggrann Kinaanalys har forsummats alltf\u00f6r l\u00e4nge utanf\u00f6r Kinas gr\u00e4nser eller p\u00e5verkats f\u00f6r mycket av v\u00e4sterl\u00e4ndska industriledares ensidiga syn p\u00e5 de egna (potentiella) marknadsutsikterna. Den nya 5-\u00e5rsplanen – som nyss […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nOs\u00e4kerheten kring Kina \u2013 definitivt inget nytt - Uncertainty about China \u2013 nothing new at all - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=296\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Os\u00e4kerheten kring Kina \u2013 definitivt inget nytt - Uncertainty about China \u2013 nothing new at all - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sammanfattning\u00a0\u00a0 Finansmarknaderna har blivit oroliga \u00f6ver Kinas obalans. Dessa obalanser inneb\u00e4r dock definitivt ingen nyhet – trots alltmer kortsiktig inverkan p\u00e5 de globala finansmarknaderna. En mer noggrann Kinaanalys har forsummats alltf\u00f6r l\u00e4nge utanf\u00f6r Kinas gr\u00e4nser eller p\u00e5verkats f\u00f6r mycket av v\u00e4sterl\u00e4ndska industriledares ensidiga syn p\u00e5 de egna (potentiella) marknadsutsikterna. 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