{"id":322,"date":"2011-08-12T08:50:06","date_gmt":"2011-08-12T06:50:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=322"},"modified":"2011-08-12T08:50:06","modified_gmt":"2011-08-12T06:50:06","slug":"denna-gang-kan-kina-inte-hjalpa-till-china-cannot-make-it-this-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=322","title":{"rendered":"Denna g\u00e5ng kan Kina inte hj\u00e4lpa till – China cannot make it this time"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sammanfattning<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/p>\n

I samband med den amerikanska \u201dsubprime\u201d-krisen och dess globala eskalering f\u00f6r numera 3-4 \u00e5r sedan kunde Kina n\u00e4stintill upptr\u00e4da som r\u00e4ddare av v\u00e4rldsekonmin. Kinesiska stimulanspaket i storleksordningen 600 miljarder USD och en extrem kreditexpansion medf\u00f6rde att Kina lyckades upptr\u00e4da som viktig tillv\u00e4xtoas \u00e4ven under det sv\u00e5ra konjunktur\u00e5ret 2009 – med positiva \u00e5terverkningar p\u00e5 m\u00e5nga f\u00f6retag i \u00f6vriga Asien, USA och Europa. Det ter sig emellertid osannolikt att Kina \u00e5terigen skulle kunna\u00a0 upptr\u00e4da som tillv\u00e4xtmotor vid en eventuell f\u00f6rnyad global konjunkturf\u00f6rsvagning som f\u00f6ljd av kaoset p\u00e5 v\u00e4rldens finansmarknader.<\/p>\n

—————————<\/p>\n

During the first part of the still ongoing global financial crisis – which started four years ago – China was able to stimulate its economy by a 586 billion USD package, a simultaneously extremely loose credit policy and a temporarily stop of the country\u2019s cautious appreciation policy. The big question is whether China can \u201crescue\u201d the world economy once more if the U.S., Japan and Europe again suffered from a severe weakening of economic\u00a0 growth. The most probable answer is:\u00a0 no \u2013 for the following reasons:<\/p>\n

1.The state of China\u2019s public finance is – officially – still favorable. Recently, however, doubts have risen about the real public debt situation, particularly when it comes to provincial and local indebtedness. Furthermore, a lot of public financing is done outside the official budget process and, consequently, not part of reported government debt.<\/p>\n

2. The fast credit expansion in past years has risen the risk of future bad loans considerably. Estimates say that total loans have increased from 120 percent of GDP to as much as 175 percent in the past three years. If these numbers are roughly correct, there is really an urgent need to achieve a markedly slower credit growth for the time being in order to avoid future huge credit losses.<\/p>\n

3. An urgent need to achieve a substantially slower growth of Chinese bank loans comes also from China\u2019s accelerating inflation problems. CPI rose by 6.5 percent in July – and by more than 7 percent in the rural areas where people\u2019s income is clearly lower than in the urban regions. Even worse, food prices went up by almost 15 percent. Unfortunately, poor people are most sharply hit by this development. Inflation is the worst enemy for income distribution in China \u2013 a phenomenon that certainly is very much disliked by China\u2019s political leadership as well. In\u00a0 other words: there is no way for China to conduct a visibly more expansionary credit policy any time soon unless GDP growth is really coming in bad regions. This can be said even if the peak of CPI increases may be reached in the forthcoming months.<\/p>\n

4. The bubble in the real estate sector of the metropolitan areas still does not seem to be disarmed. New stimuli for construction activities are really not needed.<\/p>\n

5. Finally, China needs some cooling down of its investments in order to optimize investment efforts again. In the past three years, a significant number of investment projects were not really the most urgent ones. Capital allocation has to be improved which assumes less generous quantities for new credits.<\/p>\n

Summarizing the aspects of this blog should not mean that China will be facing a poor development later this year and\/or in 2012. My own survey from June with China specialists from all over the world predicts a GDP growth on average by 9.0 percent this year (q4 this year: 8.4 percent) and by 8.6 in 201. This seems to be realistic \u2013 and not bad after all. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sammanfattning\u00a0\u00a0 I samband med den amerikanska \u201dsubprime\u201d-krisen och dess globala eskalering f\u00f6r numera 3-4 \u00e5r sedan kunde Kina n\u00e4stintill upptr\u00e4da som r\u00e4ddare av v\u00e4rldsekonmin. Kinesiska stimulanspaket i storleksordningen 600 miljarder USD och en extrem kreditexpansion medf\u00f6rde att Kina lyckades upptr\u00e4da som viktig tillv\u00e4xtoas \u00e4ven under det sv\u00e5ra konjunktur\u00e5ret 2009 – med positiva \u00e5terverkningar p\u00e5 m\u00e5nga […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nDenna g\u00e5ng kan Kina inte hj\u00e4lpa till - China cannot make it this time - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=322\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Denna g\u00e5ng kan Kina inte hj\u00e4lpa till - China cannot make it this time - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sammanfattning\u00a0\u00a0 I samband med den amerikanska \u201dsubprime\u201d-krisen och dess globala eskalering f\u00f6r numera 3-4 \u00e5r sedan kunde Kina n\u00e4stintill upptr\u00e4da som r\u00e4ddare av v\u00e4rldsekonmin. 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