{"id":33,"date":"2014-01-08T11:33:30","date_gmt":"2014-01-08T10:33:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=33"},"modified":"2014-01-08T11:34:34","modified_gmt":"2014-01-08T10:34:34","slug":"our-temperature-indicator-for-china-rises-slightly-to-6-2-but-the-growth-outlook-remains-moderate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=33","title":{"rendered":"Our \u201dtemperature indicator\u201d for China rises slightly to 6.2 &#8211; but the growth outlook remains moderate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\n\u00a4 Our so-called \u201c<strong>temperature indicator<\/strong>\u201d for the Chinese economy improved somewhat to 6.2 in December 2013 compared to 5.4 in June 2013 (10=extremely overheated). This is number that indicates quite modest growth by Chinese standards. Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated in this survey.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 The panel\u2019s <strong>GDP projections<\/strong> (average, in brackets the forecasts from June 2013):<br \/>\n2013: 7.6 (7.6); 2013q4 7.8 (7.8); 2014: 7.6 (7.5); 2014 q4: 7.2 (7.3).<br \/>\nChina has obviously landed on more dampened growth path.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 78% of the panelists think that the currency renminbi will appreciate slightly during 2014 (1-5%).<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 75% of the panelists still see a kind of bubble on the real estate market.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 The panel\u2019s confidence in the economic future of China is quite neutral (around 3 in a five year\u2019s perspective on a scale from 1-5; 5=very strong) &#8211; but surprisingly somewhat above 3 (i.e. 3.5) in a ten years\u2019 view. The latter result shows implicitly that there is some confidence that China\u2019s reform policy during the current leadership will at least be partly successful.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 The three most strongly preferred reform areas seem to be &#8211; according to the panel (ranked):<br \/>\nfinancial markets, the hokou system (for registration), and, side by side: corruption and the environment.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/files\/2014\/01\/China_Survey_Panel_December_2013.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft  wp-image-1277\" src=\"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/files\/2014\/01\/China_Survey_Panel_December_2013.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"470\" height=\"141\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/ekonomihogskolan.lnu.se\/chinaresearch\/China_Survey_Panel_December_2013.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Read the full article<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary \u00a4 Our so-called \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for the Chinese economy improved somewhat to 6.2 in December 2013 compared to 5.4 in June 2013 (10=extremely overheated). This is number that indicates quite modest growth by Chinese standards. Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated in this survey. \u00a4 The panel\u2019s GDP projections [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":349,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blogg"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Our \u201dtemperature indicator\u201d for China rises slightly to 6.2 - but the growth outlook remains moderate - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=33\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Our \u201dtemperature indicator\u201d for China rises slightly to 6.2 - but the growth outlook remains moderate - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary \u00a4 Our so-called \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for the Chinese economy improved somewhat to 6.2 in December 2013 compared to 5.4 in June 2013 (10=extremely overheated). This is number that indicates quite modest growth by Chinese standards. Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated in this survey. \u00a4 The panel\u2019s GDP projections [&hellip;]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=33\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-01-08T10:33:30+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2014-01-08T10:34:34+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/china-research\/files\/2014\/01\/China_Survey_Panel_December_2013.jpg\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Ekonomih\u00f6gskolan\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Skriven av\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Ekonomih\u00f6gskolan\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Ber\u00e4knad l\u00e4stid\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minut\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=33\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=33\",\"name\":\"Our \u201dtemperature indicator\u201d for China rises slightly to 6.2 - but the growth outlook remains moderate - Baltic Business Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2014-01-08T10:33:30+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2014-01-08T10:34:34+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/5948a05cb7150bb7d1601c23b9347cfb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=33\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/\",\"name\":\"Baltic Business Research\",\"description\":\"Hubert Fromlet diskuterar den svenska och internationella ekonomin\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/5948a05cb7150bb7d1601c23b9347cfb\",\"name\":\"Hubert Fromlet, Ekonomih\u00f6gskolan\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?author=349\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Our \u201dtemperature indicator\u201d for China rises slightly to 6.2 - but the growth outlook remains moderate - Baltic Business Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=33","og_locale":"sv_SE","og_type":"article","og_title":"Our \u201dtemperature indicator\u201d for China rises slightly to 6.2 - but the growth outlook remains moderate - Baltic Business Research","og_description":"Summary \u00a4 Our so-called \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for the Chinese economy improved somewhat to 6.2 in December 2013 compared to 5.4 in June 2013 (10=extremely overheated). 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