{"id":336,"date":"2011-12-02T16:32:54","date_gmt":"2011-12-02T14:32:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=336"},"modified":"2011-12-02T16:32:54","modified_gmt":"2011-12-02T14:32:54","slug":"emu-krisen-min-egen-syn-pa-problemlosningarna-the-emu-crisis-which-is-the-least-unpleasant-solution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=336","title":{"rendered":"EMU-krisen: Min egen syn p\u00e5 probleml\u00f6sningarna – The EMU Crisis: Which is the Least Unpleasant Solution?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Summary<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

There are only five options left to come out of the EMU crisis: eurobonds, the establishment of the EFSF as a bank with the right to issue bonds, the unlimited\u00a0 possibility for the ECB to buy bad government bonds, the German view of claiming much better and\/or secure fiscal consolidation than so far which may \u00a0– as a compromise \u2013 be combined with alternative one or two. I rule out the third solution as too bad and the fourth alternative alone as insufficient. Unfortunately, there is no solution with \u201dsafe outcome\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

EMU-krisen har inga n\u00e5gorlunda hyggliga eller s\u00e4kra probleml\u00f6sningar l\u00e4ngre. Det finns endast fem t\u00e4nkbara v\u00e4gar att g\u00e5 vidare p\u00e5, samtliga beh\u00e4ftade med mer eller mindre osympatiska risker:<\/p>\n

1)\u00a0\u00a0 euroobligationer (\u201dstraffr\u00e4nta\u201d f\u00f6r de duktigaste EMU-l\u00e4nderna, d\u00e5 h\u00f6gre \u00e4n hittills)<\/p>\n

2)\u00a0\u00a0 ombildandet av r\u00e4ddningsfonden EFSF till en bank med emissionsr\u00e4tt<\/p>\n

3)\u00a0\u00a0 m\u00f6jlighet till obegr\u00e4nsade uppk\u00f6p av \u201dskr\u00e4piga\u201d statsobligationer via ECB<\/p>\n

4)\u00a0\u00a0 Tysklands hittills tillt\u00e4nkta v\u00e4g att kr\u00e4va \u00e4nnu b\u00e4ttre skuldsanering av de mest skuldsatta EMU-l\u00e4nderna – kombinerat med fortsatta r\u00e4ddningsaktioner i ett senare skede, m\u00f6jligen ocks\u00e5 tillsammans med en reviderad strukturell EU-politik<\/p>\n

\u00a05)\u00a0\u00a0 kombinationen av tv\u00e5 ovann\u00e4mnda insatser.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r egen del vill jag helst se f\u00f6ljande m\u00f6jligheter, mestadels av pragmatiska (n\u00f6d-)sk\u00e4l – och inte f\u00f6r att de ser ekonomiskt\/institutionellt tilltalande ut:<\/p>\n

– alt 1\u00a0 (trots starkt principiellt motst\u00e5nd)<\/p>\n

– alt 2\u00a0 (endast om entydiga gr\u00e4nser och definitioner f\u00f6r emissionsr\u00e4tten kan hittas)<\/p>\n

– alt 1 och 2 i kombinerad form<\/p>\n

– alt 1 och\/eller 2 i kombination med alt 4 (i mina \u00f6gon kanske den b\u00e4sta praktiska l\u00f6sningen f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 med Tyskland).<\/p>\n

Som synes, f\u00f6rkastar jag – i motsats till m\u00e5nga marknadsakt\u00f6rer – alternativ 3 helt och h\u00e5llet. ECB:s trov\u00e4rdighet m\u00e5ste helt enkelt ges allt t\u00e4nkbart st\u00f6d fram\u00f6ver. Det f\u00e5s inte genom alternativ3. ECB-chefen Mario Draghis senaste kommentarer i detta sammanhang \u00e4r ett uppmuntrande tecken.<\/p>\n

Som sagt: Numera finns inga n\u00e5gorlunda hyggliga alternativ kvar. Den chansen har man f\u00f6rsuttit. Politikerna har reagerat f\u00f6r l\u00e5ngsamt p\u00e5 finansmarknaderna \u2013 och finansmarknaderna har visat otillr\u00e4ckligt f\u00f6rst\u00e5else f\u00f6r demokratiska beslutsprocesser.<\/p>\n

Det f\u00e5r vi betala f\u00f6r idag!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Summary There are only five options left to come out of the EMU crisis: eurobonds, the establishment of the EFSF as a bank with the right to issue bonds, the unlimited\u00a0 possibility for the ECB to buy bad government bonds, the German view of claiming much better and\/or secure fiscal consolidation than so far which […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nEMU-krisen: Min egen syn p\u00e5 probleml\u00f6sningarna - The EMU Crisis: Which is the Least Unpleasant Solution? - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=336\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EMU-krisen: Min egen syn p\u00e5 probleml\u00f6sningarna - The EMU Crisis: Which is the Least Unpleasant Solution? 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