{"id":351,"date":"2012-06-01T11:49:46","date_gmt":"2012-06-01T09:49:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=351"},"modified":"2012-06-01T11:49:46","modified_gmt":"2012-06-01T09:49:46","slug":"china-panel-survey-no-14-may-2012our-overheating-indicator-falls-to-4-9-the-lowest-number-since-spring-2009","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=351","title":{"rendered":"China Panel Survey No 14, May 2012:\u201cOur overheating indicator falls to 4.9 \u2013 the lowest number since spring 2009\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Summary<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Our so-called <strong>overheating indicator<\/strong> (right now      rather a temperature indicator) fell in May 2012 to <strong>4.9 <\/strong>from 5.9 in December 2011 (10=extremely overheated).      Around 20 China experts      from Asia, North America and Europe      participated once again in the survey.<\/li>\n<li><strong>GDP forecasts<\/strong> by the China      panel (average,%):\u00a0 2012: <strong>7.3<\/strong>,\u00a0\u00a0 2012 q4: <strong>7.4<\/strong>,\u00a0\u00a0 2013: <strong>8.3<\/strong> %.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The      short-term outlook for 2012 is more modest than previously predicted &#8211; but      still not too worrisome. The new forecast for 2013 is roughly unchanged      compared to the last one.<\/li>\n<li>90 % of the      panelists predict that the currency <strong>renminbi <\/strong>(RMB) in 2012 will be stable or appreciate by just 1-5 percent.<\/li>\n<li>82 % of the      panelists think that there is still a dangerous <strong>price bubble<\/strong> on the <strong>real      estate market <\/strong>(Dec 2011: 92 %).<\/li>\n<li>The panel\u2019s grading      of confidence in the Chinese economy looks as follows:<br \/>\n(5=very high confidence;\u00a0 1=very low      confidence)<br \/>\n3 years from now: 3.5 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a05 years      from now: 3.0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 10 years from now: 2.8<\/li>\n<li>The majority of      LNU\u2019s China      panelists predicts that it will take up to 5-10 years to recognize a      clearly visible shift to a more consumption-oriented growth model. It is      not a short-term issue.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-352\" src=\"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/GDP.gif\" alt=\"GDP\" width=\"504\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbs.hik.se\/resurser\/dokument\/fromlet\/China_Panel_May2012.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Read the full China Panel No 14, 2012 report<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Our so-called overheating indicator (right now rather a temperature indicator) fell in May 2012 to 4.9 from 5.9 in December 2011 (10=extremely overheated). Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated once again in the survey. GDP forecasts by the China panel (average,%):\u00a0 2012: 7.3,\u00a0\u00a0 2012 q4: 7.4,\u00a0\u00a0 2013: 8.3 %.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-351","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>China Panel Survey No 14, May 2012:\u201cOur overheating indicator falls to 4.9 \u2013 the lowest number since spring 2009\u201d - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=351\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China Panel Survey No 14, May 2012:\u201cOur overheating indicator falls to 4.9 \u2013 the lowest number since spring 2009\u201d - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary Our so-called overheating indicator (right now rather a temperature indicator) fell in May 2012 to 4.9 from 5.9 in December 2011 (10=extremely overheated). Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated once again in the survey. GDP forecasts by the China panel (average,%):\u00a0 2012: 7.3,\u00a0\u00a0 2012 q4: 7.4,\u00a0\u00a0 2013: 8.3 %.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 [&hellip;]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=351\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-06-01T09:49:46+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/GDP.gif\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"hubert\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Skriven av\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"hubert\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Ber\u00e4knad l\u00e4stid\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minut\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=351\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=351\",\"name\":\"China Panel Survey No 14, May 2012:\u201cOur overheating indicator falls to 4.9 \u2013 the lowest number since spring 2009\u201d - Baltic Business Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-06-01T09:49:46+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2012-06-01T09:49:46+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/ac4aba9641e918c080d4110e3b8b77a7\"},\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=351\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/\",\"name\":\"Baltic Business Research\",\"description\":\"Hubert Fromlet diskuterar den svenska och internationella ekonomin\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/ac4aba9641e918c080d4110e3b8b77a7\",\"name\":\"hubert\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?author=352\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"China Panel Survey No 14, May 2012:\u201cOur overheating indicator falls to 4.9 \u2013 the lowest number since spring 2009\u201d - Baltic Business Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=351","og_locale":"sv_SE","og_type":"article","og_title":"China Panel Survey No 14, May 2012:\u201cOur overheating indicator falls to 4.9 \u2013 the lowest number since spring 2009\u201d - Baltic Business Research","og_description":"Summary Our so-called overheating indicator (right now rather a temperature indicator) fell in May 2012 to 4.9 from 5.9 in December 2011 (10=extremely overheated). Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated once again in the survey. GDP forecasts by the China panel (average,%):\u00a0 2012: 7.3,\u00a0\u00a0 2012 q4: 7.4,\u00a0\u00a0 2013: 8.3 %.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=351","og_site_name":"Baltic Business Research","article_published_time":"2012-06-01T09:49:46+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/GDP.gif"}],"author":"hubert","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Skriven av":"hubert","Ber\u00e4knad l\u00e4stid":"1 minut"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=351","url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=351","name":"China Panel Survey No 14, May 2012:\u201cOur overheating indicator falls to 4.9 \u2013 the lowest number since spring 2009\u201d - Baltic Business Research","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website"},"datePublished":"2012-06-01T09:49:46+00:00","dateModified":"2012-06-01T09:49:46+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/ac4aba9641e918c080d4110e3b8b77a7"},"inLanguage":"sv-SE","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=351"]}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website","url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/","name":"Baltic Business Research","description":"Hubert Fromlet diskuterar den svenska och internationella ekonomin","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"sv-SE"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/ac4aba9641e918c080d4110e3b8b77a7","name":"hubert","url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?author=352"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/351","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/352"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=351"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/351\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=351"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=351"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=351"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}