{"id":367,"date":"2009-03-11T11:17:07","date_gmt":"2009-03-11T09:17:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=7"},"modified":"2009-03-11T11:17:07","modified_gmt":"2009-03-11T09:17:07","slug":"reformlanderna-i-central-osteuropa-far-ej-dras-over-en-kam","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=367","title":{"rendered":"Reforml\u00e4nderna i Central-\/\u00d6steuropa f\u00e5r ej dras \u00f6ver en kam"},"content":{"rendered":"

Summary<\/em><\/p>\n

Most reforming European countries – the new EU members included – achieved considerable growth rates in the past 10-15 years. The European emerging market model worked well for quite some time. Current problems were mainly caused by domestic policy failures and not – as it sometimes is said –\u00a0by the ongoing global financial and economic crisis. The three main failures\u00a0in domestic economic policy can be referred to\u00a0irresponible credit booms,\u00a0enormous lending\/borrowing in foreign currency and in certain cases prematurely fixed exchange rates. But not all countries failed as dramatically as, for instance, the Baltic states\u00a0and the Ukraine. Look at the Czech Republic, having less than 1 per cent of their total credits in foreign currency!<\/p>\n

My theory is rather that many of the reforming countries were too inexperienced in banking, monetary and exchange rate policy – and that they should have received better guidance from Western organizations and banks. This is why these trapped countries in the future should receive all reasonable and necessary\u00a0support from the EU, other governments, the IMF, EBRD, EIB, ECB, etc. Western\/Northern \u00a0(European) banks having direct\u00a0ownership should be committed to avoid unnecessary credit crunches in emerging European countries. And as I\u00a0said already in the early years of this decade: An early or premature entry into EMU of a new EU-member state (NMS) does not solve any fundamental\u00a0macroeconomic imbalances. This message should be sent much\u00a0louder to those NMS politicians who now are pushing strongly for EMU membership as soon as possible.<\/p>\n

——————<\/p>\n

1.\u00a0 Det var inte l\u00e4ngesen reforml\u00e4nderna i \u00d6steuropa framkallade ett starkt\u00a0engagemang hos investerare i v\u00e4st och i viss m\u00e5n \u00e4ven i Asien. Investeringsintresset g\u00e4llde b\u00e5de produktion och mer kortsiktiga finansiella placeringar. Idag klassas samma typ av l\u00e4nder som den av finanskrisen kanske v\u00e4rst drabbade regionen. Detta \u00e4r dock en sanning med modifikation.<\/p>\n

2.\u00a0Det g\u00e4ller att inse att krisen i de relativt nya\u00a0marknadsekonomierna inte enbart – och i vissa fall ej s\u00e4rskilt mycket – kan skyllas p\u00e5 den globala tillv\u00e4xtkrisen. Naturligtvis f\u00f6rsvagar\u00a0krisen i v\u00e4st och \u00f6st reforml\u00e4ndernas exportm\u00f6jligheter. Detta faktum f\u00f6rklarar dock inte tidigare\u00a0irrationella\u00a0utl\u00e5nings\u00f6kningar,\u00a0den p\u00e5 sina st\u00e4llen rent av vansinniga kreditexponeringen i utl\u00e4ndsk valuta, den i en rad l\u00e4nder alltf\u00f6r tidiga valutal\u00e5sningen och den\u00a0alltf\u00f6r snabba f\u00f6rs\u00e4mringen av konkurrenskraften, mestadels framkallat\u00a0av fler\u00e5riga stora l\u00f6ne\u00f6kningar.<\/p>\n

3.\u00a0 Utl\u00e4ndska banker – i synnerhet svenska och \u00f6sterrikiska –\u00a0uppf\u00f6rde sig tyv\u00e4rr alltf\u00f6r naiva eller resultatgiriga i de nord- och sydosteupeiska l\u00e4nderna. Detta trots att det\u00a0fanns erfarenheter fr\u00e5n svenska misslyckanden med utlandsl\u00e5n (i CHF), fr\u00e5n den svenska bankkrisen i b\u00f6rjan av 1990-talet och fr\u00e5n en del asiatiska l\u00e4nders\u00a0utlandsl\u00e5neexponering f\u00f6re finanskrisen 1997\/1998. Likv\u00e4l h\u00f6ll minnet inte ens ett helt \u00e5rtionde. Varf\u00f6r? Det vore intressant att f\u00e5 mer konkreta svar med hj\u00e4lp av den psykologiska forskningen.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

4.\u00a0 Minst lika oerfaren var man i en rad NMS avseende modern och \u00e4ndam\u00e5lsenlig penning- och valutapolitik. Enligt min uppfattning borde sedelfondl\u00e4nderna (Estland, Litauen\u00a0och Bulgarien) , det ensidigt eurokopplade Lettland, \u00f6vriga NMS och\u00a0\u00f6vriga europeiska emerging markets\u00a0f\u00e5tt mer r\u00e5dgivning fr\u00e5n europeiska institutioner och analytiker \u00e4n vad som varit fallet under de senaste \u00e5ren, n\u00e4r man betraktade fr\u00e4mst\u00a0de nya EU-l\u00e4nderna som n\u00e4stintill sj\u00e4lvg\u00e5ende. Denna miss \u00f6kar EU:s, EBRD:s och andra institutioners moraliska \u00e5tagande att inte l\u00e4mna de\u00a0relativt nya europeiska demokratierna och marknadsekonomierna i sticket.<\/p>\n

5.\u00a0 Det vore dock direkt felaktigt att nu dra alla\u00a0europeiska reforml\u00e4nder\/NMS \u00f6ver en kam. Tjeckien\u00a0till exempel har klarat sig r\u00e4tt bra, framf\u00f6r allt genom en b\u00e4ttre avv\u00e4gd penningpolitik, vilken inte gjort r\u00e4ntearbitrage med utlandet lika intressant som i andra reforml\u00e4nder. Eurol\u00e4nderna Slovenien och Slovakien ligger ocks\u00e5 mycket\u00a0b\u00e4ttre till \u00e4n genomsnittet, av allt att d\u00f6ma \u00e4ven Polen.\u00a0Problemen f\u00f6r ERM II-l\u00e4nderna Estland, Lettland, Litauen och sedelfondlandet Bulgarien har det skrivits mycket om p\u00e5 senare tid. L\u00e4get \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 riktigt risigt f\u00f6r Ukraina\u00a0och Ungern, vilka tillsammans med Lettland och Vitryssland redan f\u00e5tt IMF-hj\u00e4lp. Troligen blir Rum\u00e4nien n\u00e4sta land i denna skara.<\/p>\n

6.\u00a0I sak var det dock r\u00e4tt att EU:s regerings- och statschefer i b\u00f6rjan av mars avvisade kravet p\u00e5 ett stort r\u00e4ddningspaket f\u00f6r hela den europeiska reformregionen (vilket f\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt de mindre drabbade NMS inte heller ville ha). Individuella landl\u00f6sningar \u00e4r att f\u00f6redra. Det b\u00f6r ocks\u00e5 g\u00e4lla IMF:s \u00e5tg\u00e4rdskrav som motprestation f\u00f6r likviditetshj\u00e4pen. F\u00f6rhoppningsvis kommer IMF ih\u00e5g sina misstag fr\u00e5n hanteringen av Asienkrisen.<\/p>\n

7.\u00a0 Individuella landl\u00f6sningar \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 n\u00f6dv\u00e4ndiga f\u00f6r att undvika en generalisering av landriskv\u00e4rderingarna –\u00a0och d\u00e4rmed av synen fr\u00e5n de utl\u00e4ndska investerarnas sida. Vi noterar redan – precis som i Kina – ett starkt avtagande utl\u00e4ndskt\u00a0intresse fr\u00e5n de utl\u00e4ndska direktinvesterarnas sida. D\u00e5 vore det \u00e4nnu s\u00e4mre om riskbed\u00f6mningarna ocks\u00e5 generaliserades. En dylik risk \u00e4r dock uppenbar f\u00f6r n\u00e4rvarande.\u00a0<\/p>\n

8.\u00a0 En p\u00e5minnelse om 1990-talets Japankris:\u00a0Utvecklingen under Japans finanskris visar tydligt, hur en negativ statsfinansiell utveckling kan skena iv\u00e4g under en finanskris och simultan recession. Enligt EU f\u00f6rs\u00e4mras till exempel Lettlands offentliga skuld fr\u00e5n 16%\u00a0av BNP \u00e5r 2008 till 42,9% under 2010. Budgetf\u00f6rs\u00e4mringar kan g\u00e5 fort. Det g\u00e4ller f\u00f6r reforml\u00e4nderna att komma ih\u00e5g detta enkla faktum. Annars kan den p\u00e5g\u00e5ende ekonomiska krisen bli \u00e4nnu mer l\u00e5ngdragen.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

9.\u00a0\u00a0Ryssland icke att f\u00f6rgl\u00f6mma. H\u00e4r framst\u00e5r inte minst den politiska utvecklingen som ett\u00a0sp\u00e4nnande inslag. President Medvedev f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker f\u00f6r n\u00e4rvarande att presentera sig f\u00f6r omv\u00e4rlden som liberal motpol till sin m\u00e5ng\u00e5riga mentor Putin. Det kan rekommenderas att f\u00f6lja upp denna intressanta utveckling\u00a0s\u00e5 noggrant som m\u00f6jligt.\u00a0<\/p>\n

10.\u00a0 Aprop\u00e5 makroekonomi: Vissa ekonomiska samband h\u00e5ller i alla tider.\u00a0Varken bankledare eller st\u00f6rre delen av analytikerna har\u00a0p\u00e5 senare \u00e5r brytt sig s\u00e4rskilt mycket om ih\u00e5llande stora bytesbalansunderskott i de europeiska\u00a0reforml\u00e4nderna. Mer fundamentalt t\u00e4nkande ekonomer vet att en s\u00e5dan\u00a0ih\u00e5llande utveckling f\u00f6rr eller senare m\u00e5ste resultera i en valutakris eller liknande. Ekonomer vet ocks\u00e5 att tillf\u00e4lliga eller artificiella inflationsnedg\u00e5ngar\u00a0i\u00a0en ekonomi med strukturella inflationsproblem ej\u00a0kan skapa f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningar f\u00f6r en fast valutakurs – och d\u00e4rmed inte heller f\u00f6r ett EMU-intr\u00e4de\u00a0(se till exempel\u00a0Fromlet. 2002.\u00a0”The Euro Moves East”. Financial & Economic Review. Number 4, pp 153-187\u00a0). Begrips detta faktum \u00e5tminstone nu, b\u00e5de i politik- och banksf\u00e4rerna?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Summary Most reforming European countries – the new EU members included – achieved considerable growth rates in the past 10-15 years. The European emerging market model worked well for quite some time. Current problems were mainly caused by domestic policy failures and not – as it sometimes is said –\u00a0by the ongoing global financial and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nReforml\u00e4nderna i Central-\/\u00d6steuropa f\u00e5r ej dras \u00f6ver en kam - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=367\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Reforml\u00e4nderna i Central-\/\u00d6steuropa f\u00e5r ej dras \u00f6ver en kam - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary Most reforming European countries – the new EU members included – achieved considerable growth rates in the past 10-15 years. 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