{"id":368,"date":"2009-03-19T09:58:01","date_gmt":"2009-03-19T07:58:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=18"},"modified":"2009-03-19T09:58:01","modified_gmt":"2009-03-19T07:58:01","slug":"recession-i-de-nya-eu-landerna-recession-in-reforming-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=368","title":{"rendered":"Recession i de nya EU-l\u00e4nderna &#8211; Recession in Reforming Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Summary<\/em><\/p>\n<p>In 2008, new EU member states (NMS) from the former planned economies in (South) Eastern and Central Europe still achieved a 4% GDP growth rate. \u00a0This year, the 10 NMS will face a recession on average, like almost all single countries. It may happen that Romania and the SlovakRepublic\u00a0will be just above the recession level. Poland will face a relatively mild recession, the Baltic states a very serious one.\u00a0Without doubt, all the Central and Eastern European reforming countries will be\u00a0confronted with\u00a0a\u00a0visible reduction of their potential or trend growth rate for GDP. I expect only a slight improvement during 2010.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>1.\u00a0 Under 2008 noterades fortfarande en BNP-tillv\u00e4xt kring 4 1\/4%\u00a0f\u00f6r de tio nya EU-l\u00e4nderna fr\u00e5n det forna planekonomiska \u00d6steuropa &#8211; en tillv\u00e4xt som l\u00e5g ganska n\u00e4ra potentialen (trenden). \u00c5r 2009 kommer dock ocks\u00e5 denna tidigare relativt snabbt v\u00e4xande grupp av l\u00e4nder att hamna i en recession &#8211; om \u00e4n inte fullt s\u00e5 djupt som V\u00e4steuropa (minus 1 1\/2% j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med minst minus 3%).\u00a0Denna svaga utveckling i de nya EU-l\u00e4nderna och i andra f d planekonomier drabbar\u00a0exportintensiva\u00a0f\u00f6retag i Tyskland och\u00a0\u00d6sterrike &#8211; men \u00e4ven i Finland och Sverige &#8211; relativt h\u00e5rt.<\/p>\n<p>2.\u00a0 Samtidigt ser jag\u00a0inf\u00f6r 2010 i b\u00e4sta fall endast blygsamt f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrade konjunkturutsikter.\u00a0Mot bakgrund av denna utveckling ter det sig sannolikt att hela den europeiska reformregionen s\u00e5 sm\u00e5ningom\u00a0kommer att drabbas av en reducerung av den s k potentiella (trendm\u00e4ssiga) BNP-tillv\u00e4xten, kanske till 3 1\/2 % (men fortfarande ungef\u00e4r dubbelt s\u00e5 mycket som i V\u00e4steuropa).<\/p>\n<p>3. Givetvis var riskpremierna p\u00e5 kredit- och obligationsmarknaden\u00a0ologiskt l\u00e5ga\u00a0f\u00f6re subprime-krisens utbrott. Lika s\u00e4kert \u00e4r att dessa riskpremier f\u00f6r st\u00f6rre delen av f\u00f6retagsmarknaden blivit alldeles f\u00f6r h\u00f6ga under den globala finanskrisen. Den f\u00f6rr eller senare kommande normaliseringen torde visserligen ge en reducering av de h\u00f6ga riskpremierna f\u00f6r f\u00f6retagsfinansiering &#8211; men inte alls till de sjukt l\u00e5ga f\u00f6rh\u00e5llendena fr\u00e5n tiden f\u00f6re sommaren 2007. Finansieringen av nyinvesteringar\u00a0h\u00e4mmas\u00a0d\u00e4rf\u00f6r \u00e4ven fram\u00f6ver.<\/p>\n<p>4.\u00a0 Relativt h\u00f6ga riskpremier betyder\u00a0s\u00e5ledes s\u00e4nkta eller mindre kraftfullt expanderande kapitalstockar &#8211; det vill s\u00e4ga nya j\u00e4mviktsl\u00e4gen f\u00f6r kapitalstockarna &#8211; vilket i sin tur p\u00e5verkar tillv\u00e4xt och syssels\u00e4ttning i fel riktning. Av denna anledning spelar utvecklingen av bankerna en nyckelroll \u00e4ven i de europeiska reforml\u00e4nderna.<\/p>\n<p>5.\u00a0 Det tog sin tid. P\u00e5 senare \u00e5r har reforml\u00e4nderna till sist pr\u00e4glats av en kraftig tillbakag\u00e5ng av arbetsl\u00f6sheten. I fjol hade den g\u00e5tt tillbaka till relativt skapliga 6 1\/2%. En uppg\u00e5ng till omkring 8 1\/2 % fram till 2010 verkar dessv\u00e4rre sannolik, \u00e4ven med tanke p\u00e5 den \u00e5terv\u00e4ndande arbetskraften fr\u00e5n V\u00e4steuropa.<\/p>\n<p>6.\u00a0 Det finns till och med anledning till viss oro avseende det hittills\u00a0framg\u00e5ngrika Slovakien p g a dess stora exponering p\u00e5 bilsidan (mycket mer \u00e4n i Tjeckien). Bilindustrin kommer \u00e5tminstone under de kommande \u00e5ren att lida av en enorm global \u00f6verkapacitet. Den gamla fr\u00e5gan fr\u00e5n handelsteorin &#8211; specialisering kontra diversifiering &#8211; har \u00e5ter f\u00e5tt n\u00e4ring under den p\u00e5g\u00e5ende krsen.<\/p>\n<p>7.\u00a0 En stor praktisk\u00a0fr\u00e5ga \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 den framtida valutautvecklingen f\u00f6r reforml\u00e4nderna utanf\u00f6r EMU (samtliga f\u00f6rutom Slovenien och Slovakien) &#8211; men teoretiskt \u00e4r\u00a0valutautvecklingen i h\u00f6g grad en\u00a0funktion av den kommande makroekonomiska stabiliseringen i de enskilda reforml\u00e4nderna och av kreditgivarnas riskpremier. Det g\u00e4ller speciellt f\u00f6r l\u00e4nderna med\u00a0ensidiga, egna valutakopplingar till euron. Enligt min uppfattning borde inte ens det relativt balanserade Polen efterstr\u00e4va en EMU-anslutning under de kommande \u00e5ren &#8211; och \u00e4nnu mindre de baltiska staterna.<\/p>\n<p>8.\u00a0 Inte minst svenska och \u00f6sterrikiska banker har ett speciellt ansvar f\u00f6r en fungerade f\u00f6retagsfinansiering i\u00a0Baltikum och Sydosteuropa, eftersom bankerna fr\u00e5n fr\u00e5n dessa tv\u00e5 l\u00e4nder via sin stormiga kreditexpansion i de tv\u00e5 n\u00e4mnda regionerna\u00a0i h\u00f6g grad bidragit till den konjunkturella \u00f6verhettningen.<\/p>\n<p>9.\u00a0 Lite tr\u00f6st finns emellertid i m\u00f6rkret. Inflationen i de 10 nya EU-l\u00e4nderna kommer mellan 2008 och 2010 att halveras fr\u00e5n 6 till 2 1\/2-3%. Varaktigt l\u00e4gre inflation borde vara ett av nyckelm\u00e5len i de europeiska reforml\u00e4nderna.<\/p>\n<p>10.\u00a0Sammanfattningsvis: De\u00a0europeiska reforml\u00e4nderna b\u00f6r inte enbart fokusera p\u00e5 mikroekonomiska och institutionella f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttringar. Den r\u00e5dande krisen \u00e4r till stor del ett makroekonomiskt misslyckande &#8211; eller snarare ett resultat av bristf\u00e4lliga makroekonomiska analyser och uteblivna korrigeringar. Tas intryck av det r\u00e5dande fundamentala bristerna &#8211; med konkreta f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttringar som f\u00f6ljd &#8211;\u00a0borde v\u00e4gar till f\u00f6rnyad tillv\u00e4xtkraft i flertalet europeiska reforml\u00e4nder kunna byggas under de kommande \u00e5ren.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary In 2008, new EU member states (NMS) from the former planned economies in (South) Eastern and Central Europe still achieved a 4% GDP growth rate. \u00a0This year, the 10 NMS will face a recession on average, like almost all single countries. It may happen that Romania and the SlovakRepublic\u00a0will be just above the recession [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Recession i de nya EU-l\u00e4nderna - Recession in Reforming Europe  - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=368\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Recession i de nya EU-l\u00e4nderna - Recession in Reforming Europe  - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary In 2008, new EU member states (NMS) from the former planned economies in (South) Eastern and Central Europe still achieved a 4% GDP growth rate. \u00a0This year, the 10 NMS will face a recession on average, like almost all single countries. 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