{"id":400,"date":"2012-12-20T11:10:04","date_gmt":"2012-12-20T09:10:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=400"},"modified":"2012-12-20T11:10:04","modified_gmt":"2012-12-20T09:10:04","slug":"our-overheating-indicator-for-china-rises-to-6-5-slightly-improved-outlook-for-2013-and-2014","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=400","title":{"rendered":"Our \u201coverheating indicator\u201d for China rises to 6.5  &#8211; slightly improved outlook for 2013 and 2014"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a4\u00a0\u00a0 Our so-called <strong>overheating indicator for China\u00a0 &#8211; <\/strong>derived from a survey with China specialists all over the globe &#8211; gained some temperature in December compared to May 2012 (<strong>6.5<\/strong>;\u00a0 May:2012: 4.9;\u00a0 1-10; 10=extremely overheated). The current GDP-growth temperature does not indicate any overheating in the general economy.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0\u00a0 <strong>GDP forecasts for China <\/strong>(average, percent)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2012: 7.4\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2013: 7.9\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2014:\u00a0 8.1<br \/>\nFor both 2013 and 2014, GDP predictions are characterized by downward biases &#8211; though on a somewhat more encouraging trend. I personally would see all three forecasts about a quarter percentage point higher and tend, consequently, somewhat more to an upward bias.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0\u00a0 One of the panel\u2019s assumptions for Chinese growth forecasts is that around two thirds of our panel members count on a gradual but relatively modest recovery in 2013\/2014 in the <strong>OECD area as a whole<\/strong>. Approximately, one third believes &#8211; on average &#8211; in a continued weak and disappointing performance of the entire OECD block. China\u2019s <strong>growth<\/strong> <strong>sensitivity <\/strong>that is<strong> related to the European crisis <\/strong>is considered to be at <strong>5.6 <\/strong>(scale 1-10; 1=no sensitivity at all) &#8211; which is not negligible!<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0\u00a0 Three fourths of the panelists predict that the Chinese <strong>currency renminbi<\/strong> (RMB) will appreciate slightly during 2013 (by 1-5 percent).\u00a0 All the other remaining panelists assume the RMB to remain more or less stable.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0\u00a0 100 percent of the panelists think that there is still a dangerous <strong>price bubble<\/strong> on the <em>real estate market<\/em>. When it comes to the Chinese <em>stock market<\/em>, however, our China experts seem to be markedly less concerned about potential bubble risks.<\/p>\n<p><em>Hubert Fromlet<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/ekonomihogskolan.lnu.se\/chinaresearch\/China_Panel_ December2012.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the full article<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>China \u201cOverheating\/GDP-growth Temperature Indicator\u201d \u2013 <\/strong><strong>Linnaeus University (Linn\u00e9universitetet<\/strong><strong>)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong> <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" style=\"border: 0px none\" src=\"http:\/\/ekonomihogskolan.lnu.se\/chinaresearch\/GDP_2012_2.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" \/><\/strong><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a4\u00a0\u00a0 Our so-called overheating indicator for China\u00a0 &#8211; derived from a survey with China specialists all over the globe &#8211; gained some temperature in December compared to May 2012 (6.5;\u00a0 May:2012: 4.9;\u00a0 1-10; 10=extremely overheated). The current GDP-growth temperature does not indicate any overheating in the general economy. \u00a4\u00a0\u00a0 GDP forecasts for China (average, percent)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-400","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Our \u201coverheating indicator\u201d for China rises to 6.5 - slightly improved outlook for 2013 and 2014 - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=400\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Our \u201coverheating indicator\u201d for China rises to 6.5 - slightly improved outlook for 2013 and 2014 - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00a4\u00a0\u00a0 Our so-called overheating indicator for China\u00a0 &#8211; derived from a survey with China specialists all over the globe &#8211; gained some temperature in December compared to May 2012 (6.5;\u00a0 May:2012: 4.9;\u00a0 1-10; 10=extremely overheated). The current GDP-growth temperature does not indicate any overheating in the general economy. \u00a4\u00a0\u00a0 GDP forecasts for China (average, percent)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 [&hellip;]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=400\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-12-20T09:10:04+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/ekonomihogskolan.lnu.se\/chinaresearch\/GDP_2012_2.gif\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"hubert\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Skriven av\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"hubert\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Ber\u00e4knad l\u00e4stid\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minut\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=400\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=400\",\"name\":\"Our \u201coverheating indicator\u201d for China rises to 6.5 - slightly improved outlook for 2013 and 2014 - Baltic Business Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-12-20T09:10:04+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2012-12-20T09:10:04+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/ac4aba9641e918c080d4110e3b8b77a7\"},\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=400\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/\",\"name\":\"Baltic Business Research\",\"description\":\"Hubert Fromlet diskuterar den svenska och internationella ekonomin\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/ac4aba9641e918c080d4110e3b8b77a7\",\"name\":\"hubert\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?author=352\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Our \u201coverheating indicator\u201d for China rises to 6.5 - slightly improved outlook for 2013 and 2014 - Baltic Business Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=400","og_locale":"sv_SE","og_type":"article","og_title":"Our \u201coverheating indicator\u201d for China rises to 6.5 - slightly improved outlook for 2013 and 2014 - Baltic Business Research","og_description":"\u00a4\u00a0\u00a0 Our so-called overheating indicator for China\u00a0 &#8211; derived from a survey with China specialists all over the globe &#8211; gained some temperature in December compared to May 2012 (6.5;\u00a0 May:2012: 4.9;\u00a0 1-10; 10=extremely overheated). 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