{"id":421,"date":"2013-06-27T17:10:44","date_gmt":"2013-06-27T15:10:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=421"},"modified":"2013-06-27T17:10:44","modified_gmt":"2013-06-27T15:10:44","slug":"our-temperature-indicator-for-china-falls-to-5-4-the-growth-outlook-for-2014-remains-moderate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=421","title":{"rendered":"Our \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for China falls to 5.4 &#8211; the growth outlook for 2014 remains moderate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 Our so-called \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for the Chinese economy declined in June to 5.4 compared to 6.5 in December 2012 (10=extremely overheated). This is one of the lowest numbers since the start of this China indicator almost ten years ago. Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated once again in the survey.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 The panel\u2019s GDP projections (average):<br \/>\n2013: 7.6\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2013q4: 7.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2014: 7.5\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2014q4: 7.3<br \/>\n<em>Has China landed in a 7.5% GDP-growth trap.<\/em> Or is it still a cyclical downturn?<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 92 percent of the panelists think that China will appreciate its currency by 5 percent or less in the forthcoming four quarters.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 92 percent of our China experts believe that the real estate market is still threatened by a massive bubble.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0 Some institutional aspects (gradings 1-10; 10=very good):<br \/>\n&#8211;\u00a0 trust in Chinese economic statistics:\u00a0 4.3\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 trust in Chinese corporate accounting:\u00a0 3.3<br \/>\n&#8211;\u00a0 the total institutional framework:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2.8\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 transparency of financial markets:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3.4<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 The obviously preferred reform areas by the new Chinese political leadership:<br \/>\n1. Financial sector\/Marketization in other areas\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2. Social improvements\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 3. New growth model<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/ekonomihogskolan.lnu.se\/chinaresearch\/GDP_2013_1.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/ekonomihogskolan.lnu.se\/chinaresearch\/CHINA_Survey_Panel_June_2013.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Read the full article<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary \u00a4\u00a0 Our so-called \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for the Chinese economy declined in June to 5.4 compared to 6.5 in December 2012 (10=extremely overheated). This is one of the lowest numbers since the start of this China indicator almost ten years ago. Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated once again in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-421","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Our \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for China falls to 5.4 - the growth outlook for 2014 remains moderate - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=421\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Our \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for China falls to 5.4 - the growth outlook for 2014 remains moderate - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary \u00a4\u00a0 Our so-called \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for the Chinese economy declined in June to 5.4 compared to 6.5 in December 2012 (10=extremely overheated). This is one of the lowest numbers since the start of this China indicator almost ten years ago. Around 20 China experts from Asia, North America and Europe participated once again in [&hellip;]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=421\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-06-27T15:10:44+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/ekonomihogskolan.lnu.se\/chinaresearch\/GDP_2013_1.gif\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"hubert\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Skriven av\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"hubert\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Ber\u00e4knad l\u00e4stid\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minut\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=421\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=421\",\"name\":\"Our \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for China falls to 5.4 - the growth outlook for 2014 remains moderate - Baltic Business Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2013-06-27T15:10:44+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2013-06-27T15:10:44+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/ac4aba9641e918c080d4110e3b8b77a7\"},\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=421\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/\",\"name\":\"Baltic Business Research\",\"description\":\"Hubert Fromlet diskuterar den svenska och internationella ekonomin\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/ac4aba9641e918c080d4110e3b8b77a7\",\"name\":\"hubert\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?author=352\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Our \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for China falls to 5.4 - the growth outlook for 2014 remains moderate - Baltic Business Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=421","og_locale":"sv_SE","og_type":"article","og_title":"Our \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for China falls to 5.4 - the growth outlook for 2014 remains moderate - Baltic Business Research","og_description":"Summary \u00a4\u00a0 Our so-called \u201ctemperature indicator\u201d for the Chinese economy declined in June to 5.4 compared to 6.5 in December 2012 (10=extremely overheated). 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