{"id":437,"date":"2013-08-28T10:39:47","date_gmt":"2013-08-28T08:39:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=437"},"modified":"2013-08-28T10:39:47","modified_gmt":"2013-08-28T08:39:47","slug":"infor-det-tyska-valet-1-hur-stark-ar-merkel-egentligen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=437","title":{"rendered":"Inf\u00f6r det tyska valet (1) \u2013 hur stark \u00e4r Merkel egentligen?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Summary<\/em><\/p>\n

Just a few weeks ahead \u2013 on September 22 \u2013 the Germans will have their general elections. A change of government would be a major surprise \u2013 but it cannot be ruled out completely. Outside Germany, Chancellor Merkel tends to be considered as very powerful. This is only partly right. But Merkel is mentally strong and tough. This is not necessarily \u2013 and not always – the same as powerful when it comes to political decisions. Merkel is an obvious supporter of \u201csecond-best solutions\u201d when such an option is the only manageable way to move forward and the decision still can be interpreted as acceptable. This attitude will characterize Merkel also in her next term as the German Chancellor if she remains in power, both what concerns domestic economic policy and her stance in the still turning European debt carousel.<\/p>\n

August 27, 2013, by Hubert Fromlet\u00a0 \/ Linnaeus University<\/em><\/p>\n

_____________________________________________________________<\/p>\n

I skrivande stund \u00e4r det bara n\u00e5got mer \u00e4n tre veckor kvar till det tyska valet till F\u00f6rbundsdagen. Sj\u00e4lv har jag f\u00f6ljt valkampen mer eller mindre dagligen p\u00e5 tysk TV. Men jag har s\u00e4llan upplevt en tysk valkamp i detta tidsskede med s\u00e5 lite passion och intensitet.<\/p>\n

Personliga s\u00e4rdrag<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kanske blir det tuffare tag n\u00e5got l\u00e4ngre fram. Eller s\u00e5 f\u00f6redrar de tv\u00e5 Hamburg-f\u00f6dda huvudopponenterna i det tyska valet – kristdemokraten Angela Merkel och socialdemokraten Peer Steinbr\u00fcck – den i norra Tyskland ej ovanliga coola, rationellt styrda ansatsen (utan i detta sammanhang f\u00f6rbise en del verbala eskapader fr\u00e5n Steinbr\u00fccks sida tidigare i \u00e5r). Vissa observat\u00f6rer tror ocks\u00e5 att Merkel och Steinbr\u00fcck egentligen inte \u00e4r s\u00e4rskilt h\u00e4ngivna motst\u00e5ndare, d\u00e5 dessa tv\u00e5 politiker relativt framg\u00e5ngsrikt samverkade i den stora koalitionen \u00e5ren 2005-2009. Kanske \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 de politiska skiljelinjerna mellan i f\u00f6rsta hand CDU och SPD mindre p\u00e5tagliga \u00e4n vad externa analytiker ofta antar. Det kan ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6rh\u00e5lla sig p\u00e5 s\u00e5 vis att alla dessa f\u00f6rklaringsfaktorer samverkar.<\/p>\n

Hur som helst, b\u00e4gge kansleraspiranter \u00e4r f\u00f6rsedda med en del egenskaper som ofta inte kommer fram i mer inneh\u00e5llsbetonande programbeskrivningar. Jag sj\u00e4lv har upplevt Merkel och Steinbr\u00fcck vid b\u00e5de mindre och st\u00f6rre sammankomster och finner dem r\u00e4tt intressanta att lyssna p\u00e5 \u2013 men p\u00e5 olika s\u00e4tt. Merkel pr\u00e4glas alltid av god f\u00f6rst\u00e5else f\u00f6r sakfr\u00e5gor \u2013 \u00e4ven komplicerade s\u00e5dana, ofta parat med en synlig portion humor. Steinbr\u00fcck har i sin tur en mer rak och direkt stil \u2013 v\u00e4l f\u00f6renat med goda nationalekonomiska kunskaper (vilka han inte alltid lyckats f\u00f6rmedla under den p\u00e5g\u00e5ende valkampanjen \u2013 men troligen ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6r att en s\u00e5dan ansats ej n\u00e5r ut till v\u00e4ljarna). F\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt f\u00f6redrar inte minst Angela Merkel det enkla spr\u00e5ket \u2013 ett spr\u00e5k som alla f\u00f6rst\u00e5r och som hon hellre framf\u00f6r under valm\u00f6ten \u00e4n konkreta politiska strategier och detaljer.<\/p>\n

Facit f\u00f6r Merkels politik<\/strong><\/p>\n

Det ter sig inte sv\u00e5rt f\u00f6r Merkel att lyfta fram en del framg\u00e5ngshistorier vad g\u00e4ller de senaste fyra \u00e5ren som tysk f\u00f6rbundskansler. Trots global finans- och tillv\u00e4xtkris syns idag en p\u00e5taglig f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttring av den tyska arbetsmarknaden (\u00e4ven om l\u00e5gl\u00f6nesatsningen Hartz IV fr\u00e5n Gerhard Schr\u00f6ders tid f\u00f6rs\u00e4tter den faktiska utvecklingen p\u00e5 arbetsmarknaden i en n\u00e5got f\u00f6r positiv dager). Och p\u00e5 sistone b\u00f6rjar t o m den tyska konjunkturen peka n\u00e5got s\u00e4krare \u00e5t r\u00e4tt h\u00e5ll (utan att riskerna f\u00f6r ett bakslag under de kommande kvartalen redan \u00e4r eliminerade).<\/p>\n

Vidare uppskattar m\u00e5nga tyskar att finansminister Sch\u00e4uble lyckats h\u00e5lla de offentliga finanserna under kontrol. Tysklands offentliga skuld \u00e4r nu \u00e5ter p\u00e5 v\u00e4g att ligga under 80 % av BNP, vilken f\u00f6r bara n\u00e5gra kvartal sedan n\u00e5dde sin topp en bit \u00f6ver 80% – eller p\u00e5 ungef\u00e4r samma niv\u00e5 som Sverige hade under sin v\u00e4rsta krisperiod i b\u00f6rjan av 1990-talet. Visst \u00e4r det bra att den tyska offentliga skulden \u00e5ter verkar vara under kontroll \u2013 men mycket l\u00e5ga r\u00e4ntor g\u00f6r denna utveckling knappast till en bragd. Det mesta \u00e4r relativt \u2013 \u00e4ven i detta sammanhang. Men man m\u00e5ste samtidigt fr\u00e5ga sig, var Tyskland och Europa hade hamnat om Merkel och hennes regering verkligen hade tagit till sig de starka anglosaxiska p\u00e5tryckningarna om en mycket mer expansiv tysk finanspolitik.<\/p>\n

Med denna aspekt tangeras en politisk faktor som en relativt stor andel tyskar p\u00e5 senare \u00e5r backat upp relativt v\u00e4nligt: den tyska kursen i E(M)U-r\u00e4ddningsprocessen. Visst finns det m\u00e5nga r\u00f6ststarka tyskar som kritiserar Merkels r\u00e4ddningsinsatser som f\u00f6r l\u00e5ngtg\u00e5ende \u2013 och som f\u00f6r restriktiva. \u00c4ven i detta sammanhang g\u00e4ller att Merkel i viktiga fr\u00e5gor kan acceptera \u201dsecond-best solutions\u201d om dessa alltj\u00e4mt verkar n\u00e5gorlunda acceptabla f\u00f6r henne och regeringen. Vissa analytiker ser denna egenskap som en styrka, andra som en p\u00e5taglig svaghet hos den regerande f\u00f6rbundskanslern.<\/p>\n

Merkels styrka som f\u00f6rbundskansler m\u00e4rks mest i personlighets- och duglighetsorienterade opinionsm\u00e4tningar. Avseende den politiska beslutsverksamheten \u00e4r hennes position s\u00e4kerligen svagare.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r det f\u00f6rsta <\/em>m\u00e5ste Merkel hela tiden ta h\u00e4nsyn till det mer konservativa och egensinniga bayerska systerpartiet CSU. Detta f\u00f6rh\u00e5llande kr\u00e4ver ofta kompromisser<\/em>.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r det andra <\/em>finns ocks\u00e5 de numera relativt konservativa och marknadstrogna liberalerna FDP som under de g\u00e5ngna fyra \u00e5ren inte alltid efterstr\u00e4vat ett harmoniskt samarbete med sina stora koalitionspartners CDU\/CSU. \u00c4ven h\u00e4r m\u00e5ste Merkel ibland s\u00f6ka – av hennes parti och regering – mindre uppskattade kompromisser<\/em>.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r det tredje<\/em> har dagens opposition \u2013 i synnerhet SPD och milj\u00f6partiet \u201dB\u00fcndnis 90\/Die Gr\u00fcnen\u201d \u2013 egen majoritet i delstaternas Berlin-parlament \u201dBundesrat\u201d. Lagar som ber\u00f6r delstaterna m\u00e5ste ocks\u00e5 godk\u00e4nnas av denna parlamentskammare (40-50% av alla lagf\u00f6rslag). \u00c4ven h\u00e4r kr\u00e4vs m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger en f\u00f6rbundskansler\/regering som inte \u00e4r fr\u00e4mmande f\u00f6r kompromisser<\/em>.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4mnas kan i detta sammanhang att delstatsval kommer att \u00e4ga rum i Bayern den 15 september och p\u00e5 valdagen till f\u00f6rbundsdagen i delstaten Hessen den 22 september. N\u00e5gon genomgripande f\u00f6r\u00e4ndring av den r\u00e5dande maktpositionen i Bundesrat verkar inte sannolik, eftersom socialdemokraterna verkar l\u00e5ngt ifr\u00e5n ett makt\u00f6vertagande \u2013 och i Hessen sitter CDU\/FDP-koalitionen redan vid makten.<\/p>\n

Slutsats: Merkel m\u00e5ste m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger arbeta f\u00f6r inrikespolitiska<\/span> kompromisser \u2013 mer \u00e4n m\u00e5nga analysl\u00e4sare <\/em>\u00e4r ben\u00e4gna att tro. Merkels makt p\u00e5 hemmaplan \u00e4r s\u00e5ledes mindre p\u00e5taglig \u00e4n vad som ofta bed\u00f6ms utanf\u00f6r Tysklands gr\u00e4nser.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

St\u00e4ndiga kompromisser<\/strong><\/p>\n

Merkels utrikespolitiska<\/span> kompromissbehov i E(M)U-r\u00e4ddningsprocessen \u00e4r numera v\u00e4lk\u00e4nda. Hon betraktas ofta som EU:s verkliga ledare. Naturligtvis har hon en stark roll i alla EU-sammanhang. Hon \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 fysiskt slitstark i sega f\u00f6rhandlingar under sm\u00e5timmarna. EU \u00e4r dock \u2013 och kommer att f\u00f6rbli s\u00e5 \u2013 en \u201dkompromissklubb\u201d med m\u00e5nga kul\u00f6rer.<\/p>\n

N\u00e5got som uppenbarligen passar Angela Merkel\u2026<\/p>\n

<\/em><\/p>\n

Post scriptum: I min n\u00e4sta Tyskland-blogg kommer jag att diskutera Tysklands ekonomisk-politiska optioner efter valet.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Summary Just a few weeks ahead \u2013 on September 22 \u2013 the Germans will have their general elections. A change of government would be a major surprise \u2013 but it cannot be ruled out completely. Outside Germany, Chancellor Merkel tends to be considered as very powerful. This is only partly right. But Merkel is mentally […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":352,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-437","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nInf\u00f6r det tyska valet (1) \u2013 hur stark \u00e4r Merkel egentligen? - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=437\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inf\u00f6r det tyska valet (1) \u2013 hur stark \u00e4r Merkel egentligen? - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary Just a few weeks ahead \u2013 on September 22 \u2013 the Germans will have their general elections. A change of government would be a major surprise \u2013 but it cannot be ruled out completely. Outside Germany, Chancellor Merkel tends to be considered as very powerful. This is only partly right. But Merkel is mentally […]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=437\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-08-28T08:39:47+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"hubert\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Skriven av\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"hubert\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Ber\u00e4knad l\u00e4stid\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minuter\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=437\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=437\",\"name\":\"Inf\u00f6r det tyska valet (1) \u2013 hur stark \u00e4r Merkel egentligen? - Baltic Business Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2013-08-28T08:39:47+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2013-08-28T08:39:47+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/ac4aba9641e918c080d4110e3b8b77a7\"},\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=437\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/\",\"name\":\"Baltic Business Research\",\"description\":\"Hubert Fromlet diskuterar den svenska och internationella ekonomin\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/ac4aba9641e918c080d4110e3b8b77a7\",\"name\":\"hubert\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?author=352\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Inf\u00f6r det tyska valet (1) \u2013 hur stark \u00e4r Merkel egentligen? - Baltic Business Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=437","og_locale":"sv_SE","og_type":"article","og_title":"Inf\u00f6r det tyska valet (1) \u2013 hur stark \u00e4r Merkel egentligen? - Baltic Business Research","og_description":"Summary Just a few weeks ahead \u2013 on September 22 \u2013 the Germans will have their general elections. A change of government would be a major surprise \u2013 but it cannot be ruled out completely. Outside Germany, Chancellor Merkel tends to be considered as very powerful. This is only partly right. But Merkel is mentally […]","og_url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=437","og_site_name":"Baltic Business Research","article_published_time":"2013-08-28T08:39:47+00:00","author":"hubert","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Skriven av":"hubert","Ber\u00e4knad l\u00e4stid":"6 minuter"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=437","url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=437","name":"Inf\u00f6r det tyska valet (1) \u2013 hur stark \u00e4r Merkel egentligen? - Baltic Business Research","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website"},"datePublished":"2013-08-28T08:39:47+00:00","dateModified":"2013-08-28T08:39:47+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/ac4aba9641e918c080d4110e3b8b77a7"},"inLanguage":"sv-SE","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=437"]}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website","url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/","name":"Baltic Business Research","description":"Hubert Fromlet diskuterar den svenska och internationella ekonomin","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"sv-SE"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/ac4aba9641e918c080d4110e3b8b77a7","name":"hubert","url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?author=352"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/352"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=437"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/437\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=437"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=437"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=437"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}