{"id":536,"date":"2014-11-05T09:25:47","date_gmt":"2014-11-05T08:25:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=536"},"modified":"2014-11-05T09:25:47","modified_gmt":"2014-11-05T08:25:47","slug":"our-growth-temperature-indicator-falls-to-4-6-the-second-lowest-number-in-ten-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=536","title":{"rendered":"\u201cOur (Growth-)Temperature Indicator falls to 4.6    \u2013 the second lowest number in ten years"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Summary<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Between October 20 and November 3, we made our regular biannual survey on the business cycle and some policy questions on China. Roughly 20 China experts participated, coming from Europe, North America and Asia. Our best thanks to all the survey participants.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 Our so-called <strong>temperature indicator <\/strong>for the Chinese economy <strong>fell<\/strong> visibly to <strong>4.6 <\/strong>from 5.3 in April (10 = extremely overheated; 1 = deep recession). This is the second lowest number since this survey started ten years ago. Only around the peak of the global financial and economic crisis in spring 2009, a lower number was noted.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 The panel\u2019s <strong>GDP projections <\/strong>for China (average):<br \/>\n2014: 7.2\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 2014 q4: 7.0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 2015: 6.9\u00a0\u00a0 (7.2 % in April 2014)\u00a0 2015 q4: 6.7<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 There is an obvious downward bias in the GDP forecasts of the panel, i.e. that the probability of a different outcome will rather be on the negative than on the positive side.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 The largest <strong>short-term risks <\/strong>&#8211; within the next few years as seen by the panel &#8211; are (ranked):<br \/>\nthe (suspected) real estate bubble, different kinds of political\/social tensions and unstable (domestic) financial markets.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4\u00a0\u00a0 46 percent of the participants expect the currency renminbi (RMB) to appreciate slightly (by 1-5 percent) in 2015; 38 percent see a more or less stable Chinese exchange rate. No panelist predicts a more remarkable strengthening of the RMB in the forthcoming quarters.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a4 85 percent of our experts still feel concerned about the (assumed) overheated real estate market.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/ekonomihogskolan.lnu.se\/bbsresearch\/ChinaPanelSurveyFall2014.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/files\/2014\/11\/GDP.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-537\" src=\"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/files\/2014\/11\/GDP-300x86.gif\" alt=\"GDP\" width=\"450\" height=\"130\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Click the image for full size<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Between October 20 and November 3, we made our regular biannual survey on the business cycle and some policy questions on China. Roughly 20 China experts participated, coming from Europe, North America and Asia. Our best thanks to all the survey participants. \u00a4 Our so-called temperature indicator for the Chinese economy fell visibly to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":349,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-536","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blogg"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>\u201cOur (Growth-)Temperature Indicator falls to 4.6  \u2013 the second lowest number in ten years - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=536\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u201cOur (Growth-)Temperature Indicator falls to 4.6  \u2013 the second lowest number in ten years - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary Between October 20 and November 3, we made our regular biannual survey on the business cycle and some policy questions on China. 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