{"id":606,"date":"2016-01-21T09:20:39","date_gmt":"2016-01-21T08:20:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=606"},"modified":"2016-01-21T11:01:50","modified_gmt":"2016-01-21T10:01:50","slug":"tysklands-nya-problem-den-politiska-tillspetsningen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=606","title":{"rendered":"Tysklands nya problem: den politiska tillspetsningen"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>av Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Tysklands ekonomi g\u00e5r fortfarande bra \u2013 trots alla orosh\u00e4rdar runtom i v\u00e4rlden. Nu tror jag visserligen att aktuelle konjunkturprognoser \u2013 \u00e4ven f\u00f6r Sveriges del \u2013 framst\u00e5r som (n\u00e5got?) f\u00f6r positiva. \u00c5tminstone l\u00e4tta nedrevideringar av BNP-prognoserna torde nog inte utebli under loppet av innevarande \u00e5r p g a en del exogena faktorer.<\/p>\n<p>De st\u00f6rsta os\u00e4kerhetsmomenten finns nog p\u00e5 den politiska sidan \u2013 n\u00e5got som konjunkturbed\u00f6mare vanligen inte \u00e4r s\u00e4rskilt f\u00f6rtrogna med (och som dessutom inneb\u00e4r ett sv\u00e5rt prognosomr\u00e5de). EU:s inre kris tynger, Brexit-hotet \u00e4r uppenbart, USA:s presidentval \u00e4r l\u00e5ngtifr\u00e5n avgjort, Kinas politiska ledning m\u00e5ste ge befogad framtidstro (vilken redan verkar vara bortspelad i Brasilien), osv. Och icke att f\u00f6rgl\u00f6mma: \u00c4ven Tysklands fram till nyligen p\u00e5 hemmaplan helt ohotade f\u00f6rbundskansler Angela Merkel har hamnat i ett alltmer tveksamt l\u00e4ge hos m\u00e5nga (potentiella) v\u00e4ljare mellan Kiel i norr och M\u00fcnchen i s\u00f6der.<\/p>\n<p>Merkels stora inhemska problem \u00e4r idag hennes alltj\u00e4mt relativt liberala och humanit\u00e4ra syn p\u00e5 flyktingpolitiken, vilken fr\u00e4mst backas upp av hennes lojala CDU-adjutanter Kauder (fraktionschef CDU\/CSU) och Altmeier (chef f\u00f6r f\u00f6rbundskanslerns kansli). Men \u00e4ven inom CDU v\u00e4xer oppositionen mot Merkels flyktingpolitik, speciellt med h\u00e4nvisningen till att man redan nu kommit till den administrativa bristningsgr\u00e4nsen. N\u00e4mnas b\u00f6r ocks\u00e5 att CDU:s systerparti CSU i Bayern till och med pl\u00e4derar f\u00f6r sifferm\u00e4ssiga immigrationsbegr\u00e4nsningar (\u201dObergrenze\u201d, precis som \u00d6sterrike best\u00e4mde sig f\u00f6r ig\u00e5r). D\u00e4remot laborerar Merkel f\u00f6r n\u00e4rvarande med begreppet \u201dbegr\u00e4nsning\u201d (\u201dBegrenzung\u201d) utan sifferangivelse. Inneh\u00e5llsm\u00e4ssigt kan dessa tv\u00e5 termer skilja sig \u00e5t r\u00e4tt v\u00e4sentligt. Till sist kommer v\u00e4l en kompromiss, i linje med Merkels grundprincip att den n\u00e4st b\u00e4sta probleml\u00f6sningen vanligen \u00e4r b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n ingen l\u00f6sning alls.<\/p>\n<p>Men inte nog \u2013 f\u00f6r Merkel \u2013 med detta inrikespolitiska problem. Om n\u00e5gra veckor \u00e4r det ocks\u00e5 dags f\u00f6r tre delstatsval (13 mars i viktiga Baden-W\u00fcrttemberg, samma dag ocks\u00e5 i Rheinland-Pfalz och Sachsen-Anhalt; i september dessutom i Mecklenburg-Vorpommern och Berlin). Dessa delstatsval har till stor del karakt\u00e4ren av ett testval till f\u00f6rbundsdagen och utg\u00f6r d\u00e4rf\u00f6r en regelr\u00e4tt betygs\u00e4ttning av Merkel. Det h\u00f6ger-\/konservativt orienterade partiet AfD kommer av allt att d\u00f6ma att notera terr\u00e4ngvinster.<\/p>\n<p>Merkel kan s\u00e5ledes fram\u00f6ver komma att konfronteras med en ytterligare m\u00e4rkbar inrikespolitisk prestigef\u00f6rlust, s\u00e5vida hon inte hittar effektiva begr\u00e4nsningar av flyktingstr\u00f6mmen utan att tappa det egna moraliska ansiktet. F\u00f6rvisso en balansg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 ytterst slak lina!<\/p>\n<p>Dessutom m\u00e5ste Merkel redan nu t\u00e4nka strategiskt p\u00e5 valet till f\u00f6rbundsdagen h\u00f6sten 2017. En f\u00f6rsvagad CDU p g a flyktingfr\u00e5gan skulle vara allt annat \u00e4n bra f\u00f6r henne och partiet. En dylik risk \u00e4r dock uppenbar. Utan att nuvarande koalitionspartnern &#8211; socialdemokraterna(SPD) &#8211; samtidigt skulle bli starkare.<\/p>\n<p><em>Fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r i vad m\u00e5n detta troliga politiska virrvarr kommer att p\u00e5verka den tyska konjunkturen fram till h\u00f6sten 2017. S\u00e4kert inte positivt \u2013 snarare (n\u00e5got) negativt! Ty os\u00e4kerhet \u00e4r aldrig konjunkturfr\u00e4mjande. Denna aspekt finns \u00e4nnu icke i aktuella konjunkturprognoser.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><br \/>\nHubert Fromlet<br \/>\n<\/strong>Seniorprofessor \/ Linn\u00e9universitetet<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>av Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar Tysklands ekonomi g\u00e5r fortfarande bra \u2013 trots alla orosh\u00e4rdar runtom i v\u00e4rlden. Nu tror jag visserligen att aktuelle konjunkturprognoser \u2013 \u00e4ven f\u00f6r Sveriges del \u2013 framst\u00e5r som (n\u00e5got?) f\u00f6r positiva. \u00c5tminstone l\u00e4tta nedrevideringar av BNP-prognoserna torde nog inte utebli under loppet av innevarande \u00e5r p g a en del exogena faktorer. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":349,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blogg"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>Tysklands nya problem: den politiska tillspetsningen - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=606\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tysklands nya problem: den politiska tillspetsningen - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"av Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar Tysklands ekonomi g\u00e5r fortfarande bra \u2013 trots alla orosh\u00e4rdar runtom i v\u00e4rlden. 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