{"id":744,"date":"2019-03-13T14:11:54","date_gmt":"2019-03-13T13:11:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=744"},"modified":"2019-03-13T14:29:00","modified_gmt":"2019-03-13T13:29:00","slug":"dampad-stamning-pa-kinas-folkkongress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=744","title":{"rendered":"D\u00e4mpad st\u00e4mning p\u00e5 Kinas Folkkongress"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Inl\u00e4gg av Hubert Fromlet, 5 mars 2019<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Idag presenterade Kinas Premi\u00e4rminister Li Keqiang&nbsp;ett relativt&nbsp;inneh\u00e5llsrikt tal inf\u00f6r Nationella Folkkongressen&nbsp;om Kinas&nbsp;ekonomiska l\u00e4ge. Som jag redan kommit fram i min f\u00f6rra Kina-analys p\u00e5 punkterna 4 och 5 (<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/chinaresearch.se\/\" target=\"_blank\">chinaresearch.se<\/a>&nbsp;&#8221;What most analysts forget about China&#8221; fr\u00e5n den 5 februari), blev den officiella m\u00e5ls\u00e4ttningen f\u00f6r&nbsp;<strong>BNP-tillv\u00e4xten<\/strong>&nbsp;under<strong>&nbsp;2019<\/strong>&nbsp;bantade&nbsp;<strong>6-6 1\/2 %<\/strong>&nbsp;j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med&nbsp; cirka 6 1\/2 % f\u00f6r 2018. Detta \u00e4r den l\u00e4gsta officiellt&nbsp;efterstr\u00e4vade BNP-tillv\u00e4xten p\u00e5 n\u00e4stan 30 \u00e5r. I r\u00e4ttvisans namn b\u00f6r dock till\u00e4ggas att 6 % idag betyder avsev\u00e4rt mer i&nbsp;volymtillv\u00e4xt \u00e4n f\u00f6r 30 \u00e5r sedan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sj\u00e4lv b\u00f6rjade jag\nmer f\u00f6rdjupade Kina-analyser just i b\u00f6rjan av 1990-talet&nbsp;och tvingas idag konstatera\natt jag under dessa \u00e5r aldrig upplevt mer os\u00e4kerhet och riskbetoning i\npremi\u00e4rministrarnas inledningstal \u00e4n denna g\u00e5ng. Intressant nog&nbsp;h\u00e4nvisar\nprmi\u00e4rminister Li inte enbart&nbsp;till riskerna fr\u00e5n handelskonflikten med USA\nutan ocks\u00e5 till en del&nbsp;<strong>hemmagjorda risker<\/strong>, speciellt fr\u00e5n\nfinansmarknadernas sida och den enorma skulduppbyggnaden. \u00c4nd\u00e5 stiger\nnumera&nbsp;nyutl\u00e5ningen \u00e5ter i rask takt och det&nbsp;<em>centrala<\/em>&nbsp;budgetunderskottet\ntill\u00e5ts v\u00e4xa till 2,8 %&nbsp;j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med 2,6 % i fjol, i h\u00f6g grad beroende p\u00e5\nalltj\u00e4mt snabbt v\u00e4xande milit\u00e4rutgifter. Inkluderas lokala och implicita\nstatsskulder \u00e4r den totala offentliga&nbsp;skuldsiffran till och\nmed&nbsp;avsev\u00e4rt&nbsp;h\u00f6gre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stimulansinslag under innevarande \u00e5r\u00a0kommer ocks\u00e5 fr\u00e5n olika\u00a0<strong>skattes\u00e4nkningar<\/strong> f\u00f6r det kinesiska n\u00e4ringslivet. Det \u00e4r en bra signaI vid snabb konkretisering. En liten neddragning av BNP-tillv\u00e4xten skulle till och med kunna tolkas positivt om kvalitativt f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrad tillv\u00e4xt l\u00e5g bakom den f\u00f6rutsedda l\u00e4tta d\u00e4mpningen (vilket tidigare officiellt ofta p\u00e5talades med emfas &#8211; men knappt nuf\u00f6rtiden). Vi har dock inget svar p\u00e5 denna fr\u00e5ga. Vi vet tyv\u00e4rr inte heller, hur stark den verkliga BNP-d\u00e4mpningen ser ut idag och hur den fram\u00f6ver kommer att visa sig. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>D\u00e4remot vet vi att\ndet officiella Kina<strong>&nbsp;m\u00e5ste uppfylla<\/strong>&nbsp;sin&nbsp;<strong>BNP-m\u00e5ls\u00e4ttning\nf\u00f6r 2019&nbsp;<\/strong>av tv\u00e5 sk\u00e4l. 2020 kommer utv\u00e4rderingen av ett flertal\nstretegiska l\u00e5ngtidsm\u00e5l och 2021 firar Kommunistpartiet sitt 100-\u00e5riga\njubileum. D\u00e5 &#8221;m\u00e5ste&#8221; helt enkelt en positiv utveckling kunna\npresenteras, \u00e4ven vad g\u00e4ller de sista \u00e5ren av utv\u00e4rderingsperioden. Men hur\nblir den faktiska utvecklingen?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Totalt sett positivt ter sig en viss f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttring av&nbsp;<strong>transparensen<\/strong>. Premi\u00e4rministerns beskrivning av det ekonomiska l\u00e4get var idag tydligt mer&nbsp;problemorienterad \u00e4n under tidigare \u00e5r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Hubert Fromlet <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Inl\u00e4gg av Hubert Fromlet, 5 mars 2019 Idag presenterade Kinas Premi\u00e4rminister Li Keqiang&nbsp;ett relativt&nbsp;inneh\u00e5llsrikt tal inf\u00f6r Nationella Folkkongressen&nbsp;om Kinas&nbsp;ekonomiska l\u00e4ge. Som jag redan kommit fram i min f\u00f6rra Kina-analys p\u00e5 punkterna 4 och 5 (chinaresearch.se&nbsp;&#8221;What most analysts forget about China&#8221; fr\u00e5n den 5 februari), blev den officiella m\u00e5ls\u00e4ttningen f\u00f6r&nbsp;BNP-tillv\u00e4xten&nbsp;under&nbsp;2019&nbsp;bantade&nbsp;6-6 1\/2 %&nbsp;j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med&nbsp; cirka 6 1\/2 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":349,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blogg"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\r\n<title>D\u00e4mpad st\u00e4mning p\u00e5 Kinas Folkkongress - Baltic Business Research<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=744\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"D\u00e4mpad st\u00e4mning p\u00e5 Kinas Folkkongress - Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Inl\u00e4gg av Hubert Fromlet, 5 mars 2019 Idag presenterade Kinas Premi\u00e4rminister Li Keqiang&nbsp;ett relativt&nbsp;inneh\u00e5llsrikt tal inf\u00f6r Nationella Folkkongressen&nbsp;om Kinas&nbsp;ekonomiska l\u00e4ge. Som jag redan kommit fram i min f\u00f6rra Kina-analys p\u00e5 punkterna 4 och 5 (chinaresearch.se&nbsp;&#8221;What most analysts forget about China&#8221; fr\u00e5n den 5 februari), blev den officiella m\u00e5ls\u00e4ttningen f\u00f6r&nbsp;BNP-tillv\u00e4xten&nbsp;under&nbsp;2019&nbsp;bantade&nbsp;6-6 1\/2 %&nbsp;j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med&nbsp; cirka 6 1\/2 [&hellip;]\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=744\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Baltic Business Research\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-03-13T13:11:54+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-03-13T13:29:00+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Ekonomih\u00f6gskolan\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Skriven av\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Hubert Fromlet, Ekonomih\u00f6gskolan\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Ber\u00e4knad l\u00e4stid\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minuter\" \/>\r\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=744\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=744\",\"name\":\"D\u00e4mpad st\u00e4mning p\u00e5 Kinas Folkkongress - Baltic Business Research\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2019-03-13T13:11:54+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-03-13T13:29:00+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/5948a05cb7150bb7d1601c23b9347cfb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=744\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/\",\"name\":\"Baltic Business Research\",\"description\":\"Hubert Fromlet diskuterar den svenska och internationella ekonomin\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"sv-SE\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/5948a05cb7150bb7d1601c23b9347cfb\",\"name\":\"Hubert Fromlet, Ekonomih\u00f6gskolan\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?author=349\"}]}<\/script>\r\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"D\u00e4mpad st\u00e4mning p\u00e5 Kinas Folkkongress - Baltic Business Research","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=744","og_locale":"sv_SE","og_type":"article","og_title":"D\u00e4mpad st\u00e4mning p\u00e5 Kinas Folkkongress - Baltic Business Research","og_description":"Inl\u00e4gg av Hubert Fromlet, 5 mars 2019 Idag presenterade Kinas Premi\u00e4rminister Li Keqiang&nbsp;ett relativt&nbsp;inneh\u00e5llsrikt tal inf\u00f6r Nationella Folkkongressen&nbsp;om Kinas&nbsp;ekonomiska l\u00e4ge. Som jag redan kommit fram i min f\u00f6rra Kina-analys p\u00e5 punkterna 4 och 5 (chinaresearch.se&nbsp;&#8221;What most analysts forget about China&#8221; fr\u00e5n den 5 februari), blev den officiella m\u00e5ls\u00e4ttningen f\u00f6r&nbsp;BNP-tillv\u00e4xten&nbsp;under&nbsp;2019&nbsp;bantade&nbsp;6-6 1\/2 %&nbsp;j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med&nbsp; cirka 6 1\/2 [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=744","og_site_name":"Baltic Business Research","article_published_time":"2019-03-13T13:11:54+00:00","article_modified_time":"2019-03-13T13:29:00+00:00","author":"Hubert Fromlet, Ekonomih\u00f6gskolan","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Skriven av":"Hubert Fromlet, Ekonomih\u00f6gskolan","Ber\u00e4knad l\u00e4stid":"2 minuter"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=744","url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=744","name":"D\u00e4mpad st\u00e4mning p\u00e5 Kinas Folkkongress - Baltic Business Research","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website"},"datePublished":"2019-03-13T13:11:54+00:00","dateModified":"2019-03-13T13:29:00+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/5948a05cb7150bb7d1601c23b9347cfb"},"inLanguage":"sv-SE","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=744"]}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#website","url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/","name":"Baltic Business Research","description":"Hubert Fromlet diskuterar den svenska och internationella ekonomin","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"sv-SE"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/#\/schema\/person\/5948a05cb7150bb7d1601c23b9347cfb","name":"Hubert Fromlet, Ekonomih\u00f6gskolan","url":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?author=349"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/744","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/349"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=744"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/744\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":749,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/744\/revisions\/749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=744"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=744"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=744"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}