{"id":82,"date":"2009-05-19T09:10:15","date_gmt":"2009-05-19T07:10:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/fromlet.bbsresearch.se\/?p=82"},"modified":"2009-05-19T09:10:15","modified_gmt":"2009-05-19T07:10:15","slug":"fem-ar-efter-eu-utvidgningen-varning-for-forhastade-slutsatser-five-years-of-eu-enlargement-the-risk-of-premature-conclusions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogg.lnu.se\/fromlet-bbsresearch\/?p=82","title":{"rendered":"Fem \u00e5r efter EU-utvidgningen \u2013 Varning f\u00f6r f\u00f6rhastade slutsatser – Five years of EU enlargement – The risk of premature conclusions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Summary<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

In May 2004, the EU was enlarged by eight New Member States (NMS, Malta and Cyprus excluded). Two years later, the list of newcomers was joined by Romania and Bulgaria. There have been a lot of conclusions on the success or failure of this big step in the past few weeks. However, quite a substantial number of these conclusions must be considered as mistaken, wrong or premature. Totally, the EU enlargement should be regarded as a success. It is wrong to say that the \u201cEastern European model\u201d has failed \u2013 despite certain mistakes and shortcomings.<\/span><\/p>\n

This \u201cEastern European model\u201d \u2013 which never was strategically modeled \u2013 actually has been emerging from certain Western European banks with their enormous lending hunger in the NMS area and supervisory authorities and politicians in a number of NMS countries – without historical experience from domestically caused crises. Both sides aimed at rapidly increasing standard of living (private consumption). This kind of policy experiment was obviously seen as uncomplicated because of assumed everlasting financing of big current account deficits \u2013 by private credits in foreign currency and foreign direct investment. <\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, it should not be overlooked that certain NMS countries performed better than others during the past years. Not all NMS administrations went into the trap of irrational exuberance. In the meanwhile, we also got good evidence showing that countries with big structural deficits in the current account like the Baltic countries, Romania and non-EU member Ukraine have been much harder hit by the global financial and economic crisis than countries with quite good fundamentals like Poland, Slovenia, the\u00a0 <\/span>Czech Republic and \u2013 maybe \u2013 Slovakia. <\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Again, some emerging countries in Europe – NMS included \u2013 got trapped by shortsighted Western banks and lame European institutions which could have been much louder when they gave their warnings to inexperienced leaders in previous planned economies. This is why the austerity packages enforced by the IMF \u2013 particularly the Latvian \u2013 must be considered as by far too hard.<\/span><\/p>\n

———<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

1.\u00a0Den 1 maj 2009 var det precis fem \u00e5r sedan EU fick sin f\u00f6rsta stora \u00f6stutvidgning. \u00c5tta f d planekonomier lyckades p\u00e5 mindre \u00e4n 15 \u00e5r efter murens fall f\u00e5 statusen som EU-land. Detta var en stor prestation, som tv\u00e5 \u00e5r senare kompletterades med Rum\u00e4niens och Bulgariens medlemskap. 2005 var n\u00e4stan allt p\u00e5 r\u00e4tt v\u00e4g \u2013 f\u00f6rutom bytesbalanserna i fyra av de \u00e5tta nya EU-l\u00e4nderna. Tv\u00e5 \u00e5r senare hade EU med Rum\u00e4nien och Bulgarien ytterligare tv\u00e5 nya medlemsl\u00e4nder med strukturellt osunda handels- och bytesbalanser.<\/span><\/p>\n

2.\u00a0<\/span>Alla mina studenter som p\u00e5 senare \u00e5r b\u00f6rjade p\u00e5 v\u00e5r h\u00f6gskolas ekonomiprogram f\u00f6r \u00d6stersj\u00f6regionen l\u00e4rde sig redan under f\u00f6rsta terminen att vissa l\u00e4nders stora bytesbalansunderskott i relation till BNP utgjorde p\u00e5tagliga framtida risker. En s\u00e5dan insikt fanns dock inte generellt. Till exempel f\u00f6rstod sig en rad bankchefer och myndigheter inte p\u00e5 dessa risker, inte ens i de gamla EU-l\u00e4nderna. Dessa brister ter sig alltj\u00e4mt t\u00e4mligen of\u00f6rl\u00e5tliga.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Mot bakgrund av den slappa (analytiska) bearbetningen av de n\u00e4mnda bytesbalansriskerna utanf\u00f6r de ber\u00f6rda l\u00e4nderna \u2013 EU-kommissionen och EBRD inkluderade \u2013 f\u00f6rv\u00e5nade det f\u00f6ga att krisoerfarna politiker i exempelvis de baltiska l\u00e4nderna inte hade insikten och\/eller orken att styra emot den alltmer synliga \u00f6verhettningen. Men var fanns utl\u00e4ndska (svenska) experter och bankm\u00e4n, som varnade f\u00f6r \u00f6verdrivna ERM-\/EMU-ambitioner i vissa NMS? I Sverige k\u00e4nde vi ju s\u00e5 v\u00e4l till alla negativa erfarenheter fr\u00e5n den olycksaliga ECU-anknytningen 1991. Vilken svensk bankman ville\/kunde komma ih\u00e5g detta misslyckande? Mig veterligen fick jag inget som helst st\u00f6d f\u00f6r min slutsats att avvakta med en f\u00f6rhastad baltisk euro-\/ERM-koppling – i vart fall inte i Sverige.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Svensk politik \u2013 och vi alla – b\u00f6r med andra ord inta en \u00f6dmjuk attityd gentemot de baltiska l\u00e4nderna och de strategiska misstagen d\u00e4r. Den svenska regeringen b\u00f6r agera f\u00f6r de baltiska l\u00e4ndernas b\u00e4sta, vilket kanske inte alltid helt motsvarar Sveriges b\u00e4sta. Detta \u00e4r Sveriges skyldighet. Hur kan vi med gott samvete \u201dacceptera\u201d Lettlands bantning av den offentliga sektorn (sjukv\u00e5rden)? Man blir i viss m\u00e5n p\u00e5mind av utvecklingen i Indonesien 1997\/98. IMF b\u00f6r snarast \u00e4nnu en g\u00e5ng t\u00e4nka om. <\/span><\/p>\n

5. \u00c4ven EU:s tv\u00e5 senaste \u201dnewcomers\u201d \u2013 Rum\u00e4nien och Bulgarien \u2013 kom att hamna i kl\u00e4m med sina enorma bytesbalansunderskott. Att l\u00e5na i utl\u00e4ndsk valuta var dock ingen \u201dnaturlag\u201d, som det tjeckiska exemplet i nedanst\u00e5ende tabell visar. Polen ligger ocks\u00e5 n\u00e5gorlunda hyfsat till. Vi har \u00e5nyo l\u00e4rt oss: Makroekonomiska fundamenta kan m\u00f6jligen s\u00e4ttas ur spel under begr\u00e4nsad tid \u2013 men inte hur l\u00e4nge som helst. Det \u00e4r av denna anledning \u00e4ven f\u00f6retagsledare b\u00f6r f\u00f6lja upp viktiga makroekonomiska trender.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Utlandsl\u00e5n i % av\u00a0 <\/span>hela utl\u00e5ningen (1:a h\u00e5 2008):<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Ungern<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

58,9<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Rum\u00e4nien<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

56,2<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Polen<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

29,8<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Tjeckien<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0,1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

K\u00e4lla: \u00d6sterrikiska Nationalbanken<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

6. F\u00f6r egen del uttryckte jag p\u00e5taglig oro f\u00f6r en rad NMS-bytesbalanstrender redan f\u00f6re 2006. Men l\u00e5t oss titta p\u00e5 n\u00e5gra konkreta siffror f\u00f6r just detta \u00e5r, n\u00e4r till exempel svenska och \u00f6sterrikiska banker fortfarande hade chansen att i tid d\u00e4mpa utl\u00e5ningsexpansionen:<\/span><\/p>\n

Bytesbalanser 2006\u00a0 <\/span>(% av BNP):<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Lettland:<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/span>22,5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Bulgarien:<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/span>18,4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Estland:<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/span>16,7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Litauen:<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/span>10,7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Rum\u00e4nien:<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/span>10,4<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Ungern:<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Slovakien:<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,1<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Polen:<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

2,7<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Tjeckien:<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

2,6<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Slovenien:<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

2,5<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

K\u00e4lla: IMF<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

7. Det f\u00f6rv\u00e5nar f\u00f6ga att de f\u00f6rstn\u00e4mnda sex l\u00e4nderna i ovanst\u00e5ende tabell helt uppenbart ligger s\u00e4mst till i den aktuella skuldkrisen \u2013 och att de tre sistn\u00e4mnda verkar klara sig b\u00e4st. V\u00e5r tidigare teori om en tilltagande differentiering av utvecklingen i NMS-regionen h\u00e5ller tydligen p\u00e5 att verifieras. Man kan undra, hur m\u00e5nga svenska och \u00f6sterrikiska bankledare varit medvetna om att r\u00e4ntorna f\u00f6r all utl\u00e5ning i euro i Lettland, Rum\u00e4nien osv. i sin tur inneb\u00e4r en ny negativ post f\u00f6r dessa l\u00e4nders bytesbalanser? <\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

8. Nya forskningsr\u00f6n understryker att den f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra \u00e5r sedan starkt utvidgade Europeiska Unionen likv\u00e4l fungerade r\u00e4tt skapligt utan p\u00e5tagliga komplikationer. Det g\u00e4ller Kommissionen, Europaparlamentet och inte minst ministerr\u00e5det, vilket egentligen inte riktigt motsvarar den tidigare, mer tveksamma f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningsbilden.\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

9.\u00a0<\/span>Analytiker kan s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt inte heller uppt\u00e4cka regelr\u00e4tta koalitionsbildningar bland de nya EU-l\u00e4nderna. J\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med de etablerade EU-l\u00e4nderna fanns ingen n\u00e4mnv\u00e4rd politisk gruppbildning fr\u00e5n \u00f6st, vilket pekar p\u00e5 en klar mognad. Visst, Tjeckien har inte alltid presenterat sig p\u00e5 det mest EU-v\u00e4nliga s\u00e4ttet. Men har Irland \u2013 f\u00f6r att n\u00e4mna ett annat exempel \u2013 gjort det?<\/span><\/p>\n

10.\u00a0<\/span>Sammanfattningsvis: Allt \u00e4r inte d\u00e5ligt i de nya EU-l\u00e4nderna. Mycket har till och med g\u00e5tt bra, \u00e4ven vad g\u00e4ller den viktiga institutionella delen av ekonomin (vilken likv\u00e4l m\u00e5ste f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttras ytterligare). Men det g\u00e5r inte l\u00e4ngre att dra alla nya EU-l\u00e4nder \u00f6ver en kam. D\u00e5 \u00f6kar risken f\u00f6r f\u00f6rhastade slutsatser. Lilla Slovenien, Tjeckien och Polen har hittills klarat sig b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n \u00f6vriga sju NMS.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ergo: Svenska f\u00f6retag kommer \u00e4ven fram\u00f6ver att hitta goda aff\u00e4rsm\u00f6jligheter i de nya EU-l\u00e4nderna, n\u00e4r dagens akuta kris v\u00e4l \u00e4r \u00f6ver. Synkrona upp- och nedg\u00e5ngar och likartade strukturella f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttningar f\u00e5r man dock inte l\u00e4ngre r\u00e4kna med i de allt annat \u00e4n homogena nya EU-l\u00e4nderna. Numera har varje NMS sina s\u00e4rdrag. Det kr\u00e4ver specifika landkunskaper. \u00a0<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Summary In May 2004, the EU was enlarged by eight New Member States (NMS, Malta and Cyprus excluded). Two years later, the list of newcomers was joined by Romania and Bulgaria. There have been a lot of conclusions on the success or failure of this big step in the past few weeks. 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