Posts Tagged ‘environment’

The true conspiracy?

Friday, August 25th, 2017

Despite the title, I don’t usually believe in conspiracies. Chemtrails, NASA hiding aliens’ corpses, Big Pharma spreading AIDS to sell drugs (or, vice-versa, hiding universal remedies) are just modern versions of angel visions and miraculous healings (if interested in the topic, have a look at Carl Sagan’s classic book “The Demon-Haunted World”). Still, reading Wynes and Nicolas’ recent article showing how the actions to reduce individual CO2 emissions having the highest potential are systematically missing from the ones listed in schoolbooks and government recommendations on climate change, I must confess that I had some bad toughs.

What are these actions and how Wynes and Nicolas found them? The two authors first compiled a literature review of several possible actions to reduce energy consumption and mitigate climate change through individual actions. Then, for each of them, they computed how much a person’s emissions would be reduced each year if adopted given the prevailing conditions and technology in various countries. Their results are summarised in the Figure below:

The figure shows that choosing to have fewer children, not having a car, and avoiding to fly (especially long-haul flights) are the most effective action to reduce individual emissions, with the first one that is at least 20 times more effective than anything else you can do. By looking a the figure, it is also clear that the usually promoted measures, say buying a hybrid car or changing your light bulbs, are among the least effective ones. In practice, a US citizen choosing to have one fewer child could reduce emissions over 100 times more than by replacing her/his gasoline car with a hybrid one and 1000 times more than by replacing all the house light bulbs with LED ones.

The authors took their analysis one step further and surveyed the actions promoted in Canadian textbooks and in information reports edited by the EU, USA, Canada and Australia governments. The surprising result was that these sources largely fail to mention the high-impact actions, while focusing their recommendations on the ones having the lowest potential for emission reduction.

That’s where the idea of a conspiracy started to germinate in my mind. By looking closer at the high- and low-impact action groups a pattern emerges: low-impact actions usually imply to buy new products (cars, light-bulbs, etc.), high-impact ones to avoid having, doing, or eating things (cars, flights, meat, etc.), which is not really surprising as “not doing” something reduces to zero the corresponding emissions while “doing it differently” can, at best, decrease them. And here’s the conspiracy. Governments’ main interest, after all, is to promote economic growth. The goal of companies (by definition) is to make money and grow. This is best achieved at the macro-scale by increasing population and consumption: but that’s exactly the opposite of what most high-impact measures will do. So better to forget them and promote lower-impact, economic-growth-enhancing ones. That’s the very idea of the green-economy after all!

Now a (second) confession: I don’t really believe that an explicit conspiracy exists, nor Wynes and Nicolas suggest that. Governments do promote economic growth, of course, but that’s just one of the strongest requests from the citizens. A recent Eurobarometer survey shows that the economic situation, public finance, and unemployment are among the top-5 issues for EU citizens (just after terrorism and immigration), while climate change only ranks 8th and the environment in general 10th. Limiting the family size or reducing meat consumption are very unpopular measures indeed, often contrasted by well-organised lobbies (think about religious groups, for instance). So why should democratic governments promote them against the will people? In short: no conspiracy, just democracy. What’s wrong in that?

The problem is that people’s will can be myopic and, more specifically, that the current policies won’t prevent a major increase of Earth’s average temperature (most likely 3°C or more above pre-industrial time). Nevertheless, high-impact unpopular measures are not promoted while the focus shifts to low-resistance ineffective alternatives. On the one hand, little is better than nothing: so better one more LED bulb than a failed attempt to promote vegan diets against the people’s will. On the other, doing low-cost action allows people to live better with their conscience (in psychological terms: to reduce their cognitive dissonance), which unfortunately prevents them to change their behaviour in more effective, but difficult, ways. These same people often accuse distant politicians or big corporations (or whatever your favourite target is) to conspire to defend their interests at the expenses of climate change. That’s easy to do and helps feel better. Much harder is to recognise that government and corporations may well try to influence the process, but individual choices are what really matters. And these are not easy to change.

In short, we are facing a world where choices at all levels tend to converge towards low-cost, ineffective measures to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions. Institutions, following the people’s will, seem to go along with that and have given up – if they ever tried – with the attempt to promote more effective actions. All basically hope that technological change will occur fast enough to fix things at an acceptable cost. Nevertheless, technology – although useful – cannot make miracles. At the end, all that reminds me too much of Garrett Hardin’s famous Tragedy of the Commons model where participants, each pursuing his/her best self-interest, end up destroying their commons (climate stability in our case). No conspiracy, but no nice prospect either!

People, resources, and conflict

Saturday, January 28th, 2017

Are you dreaming of a lost Golden Age? Are you sharing Rousseau’s view of a primeval state of nature blessed with peace and harmony? Do you believe that our ancestors lived in balance with nature? Sorry to break your romantic dream. Growing evidence pictures out a different story, one of widespread competition over resources and scarcity-induced conflict. Yesterday, and today.

The most common human story is neither balanced nor quiet. When prehistoric human groups colonised new, richer territories, a period of abundance usually followed. Unfortunately, far too often that produces to population growth and the consequent overexploitation of local resources, triggering a crisis leading to starvation and the need to move further away. The colonization of New Zealand by Polynesian people in the late 13th century, which led to the extinction of at least nine species of moa (large, wingless birds), perfectly represents this pattern. The same happened in many other Pacific islands where, when moving was no longer possible, groups declined or disappeared. When possible, the alternative to starvation was to steal resources from some more lucky neighbours, which often requires to chase them out of their land, or simply to kill them.

The well known popular science writer Jared Diamond is an early proposal of this story (also included in his recent book The World Until Yesterday), so did Clive Ponting in his inspiring Green History of the World. Evidence is growing that they are right. For instance, Mark Allen and colleagues found a clear link between resource scarcity and lethal violence among prehistoric hunter-gatherers in Central California. Nor were early European farmers much better, as shown by the repeated findings of mass graves with victims holding signs of systematic torture and violent death.

The same may have also happened on a much larger scale. A research I recently co-authored shows that human population dynamics in South America 9000 to 5000 years ago cannot be explained without taking into account widespread migration and conflict. What we did is simply to check the ability of two models to reproduce the continental population dynamics recently reported in a Nature paper. In the first, only local natural resources were exploited by human groups, while in the second they had the possibility to move to already occupied neighbouring areas in case of scarcity. The latter model was the only able to correctly reproduce the empirical data, with the logical conclusion that migration and conflict affected human demography at the scale of a whole continent long before globalization and long distance mass transport.

Resource scarcity plays a role in today’s violence and conflicts as well. For instance, among the causes of the Syrian war lies a dramatic stress over domestic water resources due to the growth of the country population, bad agricultural practices, and a multi-year drought, the latter plausibly linked with climate change. In general, changes in the climate and rainfall regime have historically acted as triggers for conflict, especially in situations already presenting factors that produce social tension, such as ethnic divides.

The situation seems not so different in other parts of the world. Failing states represents today one of the main threats to world security. The international displacement of people that the world has experienced in the last few years may well become the norm in the close future. All that can be linked together by what we learned from history. Far too often humans reached the limit of the environment where they lived. That not only led to poverty and starvation, often also to conflict, warfare, and genocide.

I obviously don’t like these solutions to what, ultimately, are resource scarcity problems. No sane person would. That does not make the study of environmental conflicts less important. Far too often we base our policies and proposed solutions to the problems of the world on an idealised picture of humans and their behaviour. Some blame ridiculous conspiracies (from reptilians to chemtrails) for all the bad they see. More often, weakly defined forces, such as capitalism or globalization, are pointed out. These seem only scapegoats to me. It does not matter if you base your policy on the assumption of socio-economic structures fully conditioning behaviour (Marxism) or on the one of human as perfectly-informed, fully-rational machines (macro-economics models). As long as these assumptions are wrong, your well-intentioned actions are doomed to failure.

Like it or not, the picture that emerges from rigorous research is that we are not noble savages, nor fallen angels. We are the product of blind evolutionary forces, just as any other living being. That may sound depressing. Still, I believe that the recent accumulation of serious knowledge on how human actually behave (and behaved) is invaluable. More than that, it is essential to build sustainable societies and institutions: something that may work with actual people, not only with an idealised picture of what we’d like to be.

Yet another blog on sustainability!

Monday, November 7th, 2016

Since quite a long time I have tough about holding a blog on sustainability issues. The temptation was strong. I have worked with natural resource management and people behaviour since almost 20 years now, and I think I have something to say! However, so many sources of information (and misinformation) already exist, and the question clearly become whether I can add something meaningful to the debate.

Since I’m writing this, I obviously decided that the answer should be yes. Too often the debate on environmental issues takes a partisan, when not ideological, stand. Scientific evidence is misused, ignored (if it just does not conform to the speaker’s beliefs) and mixed with any sort of arguments from unchecked and unreliable sources. That clearly does not help the public and the decision makers to take the sometimes difficult choices they face in order to provide both us and the future generations with an healthier economy, society and environment. In short, the more the debate is biased the less likely becomes to find a sustainable path for a decent human development on this planet.

What I hope to contribute here is a discussion and clarification of important themes like climate change, biodiversity loss, resource shortages, etc. and of their drivers growth in population and consumption, wrong technological choices, etc. – based on the best-available scientific evidence rather than on arbitrary beliefs based on some obscure online source. I’ll also try to comment news and scientific breakthroughs on environmental issues. There are so many that the only problem will be to select them.

Clearly, I don’t posses the truth and I‘ll be sometimes wrong in my judgements and arguments. In other words, I cannot promise to be always reliable and fool-proof in what I wrote. What I can promise is to select reliable sources of information and to make clear references to them, so that the reader will be able to trace back my arguments. I can also promise to revise them whenever significant contradicting facts are advanced. After all, that’s what we all should do, what science does when at its best, and what the rest of the society unfortunately almost never does.

See you soon!