Our “temperature indicator” for China falls to 5.3 – the third lowest number ever
Postat den 24th april, 2014, 10:13 av Hubert Fromlet, Ekonomihögskolan
Summary
Between April 12 and April 22, we made our regular spring survey on the business cycle outlook and current structural conditions in China. Roughly 20 China experts participated, coming from Europe, North America and Asia. Cordial thanks from us at Linnaeus University to all the China experts who regularly come back to us with their thoughtful answers. This spring, the survey “celebrates” it tenth anniversary.
- Our so-called “temperature indicator” for the Chinese economy fell slightly to 5.3 in April from 6.2 in December 2013 (10 = extremely overheated). This is the third lowest number since we started the survey exactly ten years ago. China’s GDP-growth deceleration becomes obvious also in our own survey and concluding analysis.
- The panel’s GDP-growth projections (average):
2014: 7.3 2014 q4: 7.3 2015: 7.2 2015 q4: 7.1
- 72 % expect the RMB to appreciate by 1-5 percent during July 2014-June 2015.
- 82 % think that there still is a dangerous price bubble on the Chinese real estate market.
- Confidence in the Chinese economy has weakened somewhat, both in the short and the longer run.
- Some institutional aspects (gradings 1-10; 10=very good)
– trust in Chinese economic statistics: 4.9 – trust in corporate accounting: 3.8
– transparency of financial markets: 3.3 -> all in all: relatively poor institutional results.
Det här inlägget postades den april 24th, 2014, 10:13 och fylls under Inlägg