China’s GDP growth – no surprise at all

15:26 by Hubert Fromlet, Kalmar

In my latest blog I wrote that “the lowest number that can be expected for Q4 of 2018 should be 6.3 percent (for GDP growth). Any number lower than 6.3 percent, I would interpret as a kind of official confirmation that things are really going in the wrong direction…”. However, this seems to be the case all the same by officially confirming a lower GDP-growth number again (GDP q4: +6.4 percent yoy, q3: 6.5, 2019 compared to 2018: + 6.6, in line with the official 6.5 objective).

Altogether, the latest Chinese GDP development is no surprise. The development continues to calm down. The political leadership is worried (see my latest blog). Further decreases of the banks’ cash requirement and other stimuli will most probably come. The total volume and success of the planned structural reforms become therefore more uncertain.

Hubert Fromlet
Affiliate Professor at the School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University
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